Modeling Water and Heat Balance Components for Large Agricultural Region Utilizing Information from Meteorological Satellites

The method has been developed to evaluate water and heat balance components for vegetation covered area of regional scale based on the refined physical-mathematical model of vertical water and heat exchange between land surface and atmosphere (Land Surface Model, LSM) for vegetation season adapted to satellite information on land surface and meteorological conditions. The LSM is accommodated for utilizing satellite-derived estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics as model parameters and input variables. Estimates of these characteristics presented as distributions of their values over the study area have been obtained from AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/Meteosat-9, -10 data. To build such estimates methods and technologies have been developed and refined using results of thematic processing measurement data from these sensors. Among them the original Multi Threshold Method (MTM) has been developed and tested to calculate daily precipitation sums using rainfall intensity estimates retrieved from AVHRR and SEVIRI data with subsequent replacement of ground-measured rainfall amounts by these daily rainfalls. All technologies have been adapted to the study area with square of 227300 km² being the part of the Central Black Earth Region of European Russia. Developed earlier procedures of utilizing satellitederived estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics (including precipitation) in the model have been refined and verified. Final result of modeling is the fields of soil water content, evapotranspiration and other water and heat balance components of the region under study for years 2012–2014 vegetation seasons.     

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.     

Ponderomotive Force of Ion Cyclotron Waves in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pc</Emphasis>1 Frequency Range with Magnetosonic Dispersion

Nonlinear properties of the Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations with anomalous (magnetosonic) dynamic spectrum are studied. The nonlinear properties of the waves are reflected in the emergence of ponderomotive force proportional to the squared amplitude of the waves. Just as in the case of the Alfven waves, at small values of parameter ν₀ = ω/ω_ci0 < 0.4 (ratio of the carrier frequency to proton gyrofrequency in the equatorial plane), the ponderomotive force leads to the modification of the background plasma through increasing its density towards the equator. At ν₀ > 0.4, plasma is expelled from the equator towards the higher latitudes. The dependence of the nonlinear modification of background plasma for the different parameters of the magnetosphere is studied.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.     

Seismic performance of steel friction connections considering direct-repair costs

This study compares seismic losses considering initial construction costs and direct-repair costs for New Zealand steel moment-resisting frame buildings with friction connections and those with extended bolted-end-plate connections. A total of 12 buildings have been designed and analysed considering both connection types, two building heights (4-storey and 12-storey), and three locations around New Zealand (Auckland, Christchurch, and Wellington). It was found that buildings with friction connections required design to a higher design ductility, yet are generally stiffer due to larger beams being required to satisfy higher connection overstrength requirements. This resulted in the frames with friction connections experiencing lower interstorey drifts on most floors but similar peak total floor accelerations, and subsequently incurring lower drift-related seismic repair losses. Frames with friction connections tended to have lower expected net-present-costs within 50 years of the building being in service for shorter buildings and/or if located in regions of high seismicity. None of the frames with friction connections in Auckland showed any benefits due to the low seismicity of the region.     

Predicting plant water content in Eucalyptus grandis forest stands in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa using field spectra resampled to the Sumbandila Satellite Sensor

The measurement of plant water content is essential to assess stress and disturbance in forest plantations. Traditional techniques to assess plant water content are costly, time consuming and spatially restrictive. Remote sensing techniques offer the alternative of a non-destructive and instantaneous method of assessing plant water content over large spatial scales where ground measurements would be impossible on a regular basis. In the context of South Africa, due to the cost and availability of imagery, studies focusing on the estimation of plant water content using remote sensing data have been limited. With the scheduled launch of the South African satellite SumbandilaSat evident in 2009, it is imperative to test the utility of this satellite in estimating plant water content. This study resamples field spectral data measured from a field spectrometer to the band settings of the SumbandilaSat in order to test its potential in estimating plant water content in a Eucalyptus plantation. The resampled SumbandilaSat wavebands were input into a neural network due to its ability to model non-linearity in a dataset and its inherent ability to perform better than conventional linear models. The integrated approach involving neural networks and the resampled field spectral data successfully predicted plant water content with a correlation coefficient of 0.74 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.41% on an independent test dataset outperforming the traditional multiple regression method of estimation. The best-trained neural network algorithm that was chosen for assessing the relationship between plant water content and the SumbandilaSat bands was based on a few points only and more research is required to test the robustness and effectiveness of this sensor in estimating plant water content across different species and seasons. This is critical for monitoring plantation health in South Africa using a cheaply available local sensor containing key vegetation wavelengths.     

Assessment of the Accuracy of Calculations Using the International Reference Ionosphere Model IRI-2016: I. Electron Densities

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The paper quantitatively compares the results of calculations of the electron density Ne by the International Reference Ionosphere model IRI-2016 with experimental data...     

Leaky Aquifer Models to Simulate the Well Flow in Fractured Aquifers with Linear Interporosity Flow

Following Hemker and Maas (1987) the models of two or three leaky aquifers are applied to simulate the flow to vertical wells operating in the fractured or dual porosity aquifers. The software WellTest (WT) (Székely 2015) is used for calculating the drawdown and discharge rate variation. The comparative analysis with the independent analytical solutions by Boulton and Streltsova-Adams (1978), Warren and Root (1963), Kazemi et al. (1969) concluded with acceptable agreement between the WT simulation and the alternate calculation methods. The selected field tests have been conducted in fractured limestone aquifers. The pumping test west of Copenhagen shows an example of fractured aquifer with considerable negative skin effect at the well face. The flowing well Wafra W1 in Kuwait operates in the two-zone aquifer exhibiting sufficient vertical recharge via leakage beyond a circular domain of estimated radius of 2460 m.     

Formation of Humic-like Substances in Mixed and Pure Cultures of Aquatic Microorganisms

A natural decay of plant and animal biomass in aquatic environments results in the release of different simple structured organic substances into water. In our laboratory experiments we investigated whether some of them, e.g., starch or peptone, and also a complex yeast biomass can be transformed into humic-like substances by natural assemblages and some pure cultures of aquatic microorganisms. After a 6 months incubation most of the cultural media enriched with those natural organic substrates turned dark in color and humic-like substances (HS) could be isolated. However, the original substrate organic carbon was mainly mineralized in microbial cultures, and only about 3 % C was converted into HS. Total yields of HS differed in dependence of the individual substrate used (peptone > yeast > starch), the origin of inoculum (river > lake > groundwater), and the incubation temperature (20°C > 10°C). According to their elemental composition, and their spectroscopical and electrophoretic characteristics the microbially formed HS resembled natural aquatic humic matter, but were higher in aliphatic constituents (carbohydrates, peptides) and lower in aromatic structures. HS-like substances were also obtained from pure cultures of a bacterium Bacillus sphaericus and a fungus Cladosporium cladosporioides. The ¹³C and ¹⁵N isotopic contents of the microbially produced HS differed in dependence on the microbial inoculum and the type of organic substrates used, but in general they indicated anabolic processes to be mainly responsible for the humification of the simple organic substrates used in our experiments.