The cost of achieving South Africa’s ‘fair share’ of global climate change mitigation

Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance.

Key policy insights

• South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so.

• Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available.

• Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change.

     

An investigation into intersex amphipods and a possible association with aquaculture

The amphipod, Echinogammarus marinus, is common in sheltered coastal inlets, such as estuaries and sea lochs, in Scotland and exhibits increased levels of intersex in some contaminated areas. Sea lochs are commonly the location for coastal aquaculture development, and some chemicals used in fish-farming are specifically designed to target the crustacean nervous system. Therefore it was hypothesised that these chemicals may also affect neuro-endocrine pathways, causing morphological and reproductive abnormalities in non-target Crustacea. Based upon this hypothesis, Echinogammarus marinus amphipods from two different Scottish sea lochs containing salmon farms were investigated. Morphology, intersexuality, and the incidence of microsporidian parasites were recorded at sites close and at distance from fish-farms. Results suggest a higher incidence of intersexuality at sites within sea lochs, comparable to that observed in industrially contaminated sites elsewhere in Scotland. The data suggest that fish farming activity may influence the observed distributions of intersexuality within lochs. Intersex specimens were more likely to be infected by microsporidian parasites than non-intersex specimens. Normal females were found more likely to be infected by microsporidian parasites at sites associated with high intersexuality, suggesting the parasite as the probable feminiser. The cause(s) for the observed patterns of intersexuality are unclear, although suggestions relating to discharges from fish farms are discussed.     

The audacity of the ocean: Gendered politics of positionality in the Pacific

Throughout the contemporary Pacific, relationships that indigeneity makes possible are emerging as celebrated resistance to post-colonial development anxieties. In the process, lived experience heightens the commitment to decolonize thinking, language and practice in teaching and research. Not only because these imperatives are highly personalized but also because they are gendered and heavy with generational trauma. These gendered dynamics circulate around popular culture and imaginaries of Pacific paradise but also problematically around the challenges of long-standing intolerances especially around gender and race. The paper asks how a gendered politics of positionality engages with emerging positionalities that uncritically allow for such intolerances. I touch on two ways in which colonial continuities of belittlement are often reinforced, but are also offering hopeful and careful decolonial scholarly futures. The first is the naming of the Pacific and the second is supervising women doctoral candidates from the Pacific. In this paper, the audacity of the ocean offers a metaphorical opportunity to carefully reconcile these tensions and provide trajectories for decolonial knowledge-making. However, it also offers a material way of understanding the on-going work with ‘tensions’ and disruptions in their ever present but changeable forms. Oceanic tropes and a feminist Oceanic audacity of embodied engagement in the Pacific offer dynamic and gendered intellectual agility which runs counter to the tropical imageries of languid indifference.

black/is a state of mind like the colour of an island Teaiwa (2017) we sweat and cry salt water, so we know that the ocean is really in our blood Teaiwa (2008)

     

A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.     

Determining stellar radii using large separations: an error analysis

The Kepler mission will provide large separations for many stars. One of the tasks of Kepler Asteroseismic Consortium is to determine radii of the observed stars from the large separations and other catalogued “classical” data such as effective temperature, metallicities, brightness, distance etc. We present the results of a detailed analysis of errors in the radius estimates caused by errors in the input parameters. This exercise enables us to determine which parameters will benefit from follow-up observations of the interesting cases.     

Setting priorities for land management to mitigate climate change

Background

No consensus has been reached how to measure the effectiveness of climate change mitigation in the land-use sector and how to prioritize land use accordingly. We used the long-term cumulative and average sectorial C stocks in biomass, soil and products, C stock changes, the substitution of fossil energy and of energy-intensive products, and net present value (NPV) as evaluation criteria for the effectiveness of a hectare of productive land to mitigate climate change and produce economic returns. We evaluated land management options using real-life data of Thuringia, a region representative for central-western European conditions, and input from life cycle assessment, with a carbon-tracking model. We focused on solid biomass use for energy production.

Results

In forestry, the traditional timber production was most economically viable and most climate-friendly due to an assumed recycling rate of 80% of wood products for bioenergy. Intensification towards "pure bioenergy production" would reduce the average sectorial C stocks and the C substitution and would turn NPV negative. In the forest conservation (non-use) option, the sectorial C stocks increased by 52% against timber production, which was not compensated by foregone wood products and C substitution. Among the cropland options wheat for food with straw use for energy, whole cereals for energy, and short rotation coppice for bioenergy the latter was most climate-friendly. However, specific subsidies or incentives for perennials would be needed to favour this option.

Conclusions

When using the harvested products as materials prior to energy use there is no climate argument to support intensification by switching from sawn-wood timber production towards energy-wood in forestry systems. A legal framework would be needed to ensure that harvested products are first used for raw materials prior to energy use. Only an effective recycling of biomaterials frees land for long-term sustained C sequestration by conservation. Reuse cascades avoid additional emissions from shifting production or intensification.     

Redox Potential and Seasonal Porewater Biogeochemistry of Three Mountain Wetlands in Southeastern Kentucky, USA

Redox potentials (Eh) were monitored bimonthly and porewater chemistry was analyzed seasonally at three slightly-acidic, high-elevation Kentucky wetlands that differed in hydrology, parent materials, and vegetation. At all sites, Eh values were below 300 mV, which indicated that reducing conditions persisted within the upper 90 cm and fluctuated mainly within the range of iron and sulfate reduction. Significant relationships of Eh values with depth were observed only at the Martins Fork wetland, where precipitation was the primary water source. The strongest and most stable reducing conditions, observed at the Kentenia site, reflected consistently high water levels, which were sustained by ground water. The third wetland (Four Level) was distinguished by irregular Eh fluctuations coinciding with strong seasonal ground-water upwelling. Although Fe³⁺ and SO₄ ²⁻ were the primary terminal electron acceptors in all wetlands, porewater chemistry also varied significantly by season and soil depth in response to piezometric water level fluctuations. Additional factors that influenced porewater chemistry included: (1) the presence of limestone parent materials that affected porewater pH, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺; and (2) the prevalence of sphagnum moss or graminoid species that influenced dissolved organic carbon, CO₂, and CH₄. Results from this study indicated the diverse range and importance of multiple factors in controlling biogeochemical processes and properties in small, high-elevation Appalachian wetlands.     

Aggradational lobe fringes: The influence of subtle intrabasinal seabed topography on sediment gravity flow processes and lobe stacking patterns

Seabed topography is ubiquitous across basin‐floor environments, and influences sediment gravity flows and sediment dispersal patterns. The impact of steep (several degrees) confining slopes on sedimentary facies and depositional architecture has been widely documented. However, the influence of gentle (fraction of a degree) confining slopes is less well‐documented, largely due to outcrop limitations. Here, exceptional outcrop and research borehole data from Unit A of the Permian Laingsburg Formation, South Africa, provide the means to examine the influence of subtle lateral confinement on flow behaviour and lobe stacking patterns. The dataset describes the detailed architecture of subunits A.1 to A.6, a succession of stacked lobe complexes, over a palinspastically restored 22 km across‐strike transect. Facies distributions, stacking patterns, thickness and palaeoflow trends indicate the presence of a south‐east facing low angle (fraction of a degree) lateral intrabasinal slope. Interaction between stratified turbidity currents with a thin basal sand‐prone part and a thick mud‐prone part and the confining slope results in facies transition from thick‐bedded sandstones to thin‐bedded heterolithic lobe fringe‐type deposits. Slope angle dictates the distance over which the facies transition occurs (hundreds of metres to kilometres). These deposits are stacked vertically over tens of metres in successive lobe complexes to form an aggradational succession of lobe fringes. Extensive slides and debrites are present at the base of lobe complexes, and are associated with steeper restored slope gradients. The persistent facies transition across multiple lobe complexes, and the mass flow deposits, suggests that the intrabasinal slope was dynamic and was never healed by deposition during Unit A times. This study demonstrates the significant influence that even subtle basin‐floor topography has on flow behaviour and depositional architecture of submarine lobe complexes. In addition, we present a new aggradational lobe fringe facies associations and recognition criteria for subtle confinement in less well‐exposed and subsurface basin fills.     

水文地质研究新动向

由于日益增长的社会发展的需要，水文地质研究正在产生巨大变化。人们对各种工农业活动所产生的诸多环境污染问题的关注，以及对“高放”放射性废物和毒性液体的地下深层埋设的安全评价需求，致使水文地质研究产生许多新的生长点。无论是在水文地质研究的学科发展领域，还是在解决重大社会问题方向，水文地质学家均面临着巨大的挑战和机遇。     

The importance of changing oceanography in controlling late Quaternary carbonate sedimentation on a high-energy, tropical, oceanic ramp: north-western Australia

The North West Shelf is an ocean‐facing carbonate ramp that lies in a warm‐water setting adjacent to an arid hinterland of moderate to low relief. The sea floor is strongly affected by cyclonic storms, long‐period swells and large internal tides, resulting in preferentially accumulating coarse‐grained sediments. Circulation is dominated by the south‐flowing, low‐salinity Leeuwin Current, upwelling associated with the Indian Ocean Gyre, seaward‐flowing saline bottom waters generated by seasonal evaporation, and flashy fluvial discharge. Sediments are palimpsest, a variable mixture of relict, stranded and Holocene grains. Relict intraclasts, both skeletal and lithic, interpreted as having formed during sea‐level highstands of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 4, are now localized to the mid‐ramp. The most conspicuous stranded particles are ooids and peloids, which ¹⁴C dating shows formed at 15·4–12·7 Ka, in somewhat saline waters during initial stages of post‐Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea‐level rise. It appears that initiation of Leeuwin Current flow with its relatively less saline, but oceanic waters arrested ooid formation such that subsequent benthic Holocene sediment is principally biofragmental, with sedimentation localized to the inner ramp and a ridge of planktic foraminifera offshore. Inner‐ramp deposits are a mixture of heterozoan and photozoan elements. Depositional facies reflect episodic environmental perturbation by riverine‐derived sediments and nutrients, resulting in a mixed habitat of oligotrophic (coral reefs and large benthic foraminifera) and mesotrophic (macroalgae and bryozoans) indicators. Holocene mid‐ramp sediment is heterozoan in character, but sparse, most probably because of the periodic seaward flow of saline bottom waters generated by coastal evaporation. Holocene outer‐ramp sediment is mainly pelagic, veneering shallow‐water sediments of Marine Isotope Stage 2, including LGM deposits. Phosphate accumulations at ≈ 200 m water depth suggest periodic upwelling or Fe‐redox pumping, whereas enhanced near‐surface productivity, probably associated with the interaction between the Leeuwin Current and Indian Ocean surface water, results in a linear ridge of pelagic sediment at ≈ 140 m water depth. This ramp depositional system in an arid climate has important applications for the geological record: inner‐ramp sediments can contain important heterozoan elements, mid‐ramp sediments with bedforms created by internal tides can form in water depths exceeding 50 m, saline outflow can arrest or dramatically slow mid‐ramp sedimentation mimicking maximum flooding intervals, and outer‐ramp planktic productivity can generate locally important fine‐grained carbonate sediment bodies. Changing oceanography during sea‐level rise can profoundly affect sediment composition, sedimentation rate and packaging.