Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)–IPL project No. 179

This article summarises activities and preliminary results of the International Programme on Landslides Project no. 179 “Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)”. This project is planned for 3 years (2013–2015); the main objectives of the first year are (1) to create an online database and (2) to select collaborating partners. A survey of existing and relevant documents, information and organisations has been initiated along with the creation of a website (www.glofs-database.org) and the establishment of international collaboration. The first preliminary results show regional differences in various attributes of GLOF events (e.g. triggers, chronological distribution). These differences should be taken into consideration in regionally focused methods of hazard assessment, mitigation and consequently risk management.     

Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).     

Controls on the deep thermal field: implications from 3-D numerical simulations for the geothermal research site Groß Schönebeck

The deep thermal field in sedimentary basins can be affected by convection, conduction or both resulting from the structural inventory, physical properties of geological layers and physical processes taking place therein. For geothermal energy extraction, the controlling factors of the deep thermal field need to be understood to delineate favorable drill sites and exploitation compartments. We use geologically based 3-D finite element simulations to figure out the geologic controls on the thermal field of the geothermal research site Groß Schönebeck located in the E part of the North German Basin. Its target reservoir consists of Permian Rotliegend clastics that compose the lower part of a succession of Late Carboniferous to Cenozoic sediments, subdivided into several aquifers and aquicludes. The sedimentary succession includes a layer of mobilized Upper Permian Zechstein salt which plays a special role for the thermal field due to its high thermal conductivity. Furthermore, the salt is impermeable and due to its rheology decouples the fault systems in the suprasalt units from subsalt layers. Conductive and coupled fluid and heat transport simulations are carried out to assess the relative impact of different heat transfer mechanisms on the temperature distribution. The measured temperatures in 7 wells are used for model validation and show a better fit with models considering fluid and heat transport than with a purely conductive model. Our results suggest that advective and convective heat transport are important heat transfer processes in the suprasalt sediments. In contrast, thermal conduction mainly controls the subsalt layers. With a third simulation, we investigate the influence of a major permeable and of three impermeable faults dissecting the subsalt target reservoir and compare the results to the coupled model where no faults are integrated. The permeable fault may have a local, strong impact on the thermal, pressure and velocity fields whereas the impermeable faults only cause deviations of the pressure field.     

Scaling and multivariate analysis of medium to large landslide events: Haida Gwaii, British Columbia

Gimbarzevsky (1988) collected an exceptional landsliding inventory for Haida Gwaii, British Columbia that included over 8,000 landsliding vectors covering an area of approximately 10,000 km². This database was never published in the referred literature, despite its regional significance. It was collected prior to widespread application of GIS technologies in landsliding studies, limiting the analyses undertaken at the time. Gimbarzevsky identified landslides using 1:50,000 aerial photographs, and transferred the information to NTS map sheets. In our study, we digitized the landslide vectors from these original map sheets and connected each landslide to a digital elevation model. Lengths of landslide vectors are compared to the landsliding inventory for Haida Gwaii analyzed in Rood (1984), Martin Y et al. BC Can J Earth Sci 39:289–305 (2002); the latter inventory is based on larger-scale aerial photographs (~1:12,000). Rood’s database contains a more complete record of smaller landslides, while the inventory of Gimbarzevsky provides improved statistical representation of less frequent, medium to large landslides. It is suggested that combined landslide delineation at different scales could provide a more complete landslide record. Discriminant analysis was undertaken to assess which of nine predictor variables, chosen on the basis of mechanical theory, best predict failed versus unfailed locations. Seven of the nine variables were found to be statistically significant in discriminating amongst failed and unfailed locations. Results show that 81.7% of original grouped cases were correctly classified.     

Sedimentology and geochemistry of an exceptionally preserved last interglacial sapropel S5 in the Levantine Basin (Mediterranean Sea)

A combined study of lithological, geochemical and physical sediment properties is reported from a completely laminated S5 sapropel, recovered in three gravity cores (M40-4 SL67, M51-3 SL103, M51-3 SL104) from the Pliny Trench region of the eastern Mediterranean. The thickness of the studied sapropel S5 varies between 85 and 91 cm and tops most S5-sapropels in the Mediterranean. Based on optical features like color and thickness of laminae, the sapropels were subdivided into thirteen distinct lithostratigraphic zones. These zones, as well as the finer layering pattern within them, could be followed exactly among the three cores, indicating that the processes responsible for this variation acted at least on a regional scale. The sapropel sediment is characterized by exceptionally high porosity, which is strongly correlated with Si/Ca. This relationship implies that the sapropel is in essence an organic-matter rich diatomite and its exceptional thickness can be explained by preservation of diatoms forming a loosely packed sediment fabric. Compared to other S5 sapropels, the preservation of diatoms has apparently led to a twofold increase in the thickness of the sapropel layer. Relative abundances of 10 elements were determined at ultra-high resolution (0.2 mm) by XRF-scanner over the complete length of each sapropel including several cm of enclosing marl. An analysis of the chemical data indicates that the lowermost 13 cm of the sapropel is chemically more similar to the underlying marl and that the sediment chemistry shows different signals at different scales. The strongest pattern is the contrast between the sapropel and the surrounding marl, which is accentuated in elements indicative for redox conditions as well as terrigenous sediment input and productivity. Within the sapropel, a mm- to cm-scale layering is observed. The abundances of many elements are systematically linked to the pattern of these layers, indicating a common origin, related to productivity and/or terrigenous sediment and/or redox conditions. This pattern indicates a link to a regional climatic process, making the S5 sapropel horizon in M40-4 SL67, M51-3 SL103 and M51-3 SL104 a potential high-resolution archive of climatic variability during the last interglacial in the Mediterranean Sea and its adjacent landmasses.     

Modern and late Quaternary clay mineral distribution in the area of the SE Mediterranean Sea

The present-day clay mineral distribution in the southeastern Levantine Sea and its borderlands reveals a complex pattern of different sources and distribution paths. Smectite dominates the suspended load of the Nile River and of rivers in the Near East. Illite sources are dust-bearing winds from the Sahara and southwestern Europe. Kaolinite is prevalent in rivers of the Sinai, in Egyptian wadis, and in Saharan dust. A high-resolution sediment core from the southeastern Levantine Sea spanning the last 27 ka shows that all these sources contributed during the late Quaternary and that the Nile River played a very important role in the supply of clay. Nile influence was reduced during the glacial period but was higher during the African Humid Period. In contrast to the sharp beginning and end of the African Humid Period recorded in West African records (15 and 5.5 ka), our data show a more transitional pattern and slightly lower Nile River discharge rates not starting until 4 ka. The similarity of the smectite concentrations with fluctuations in sea-surface temperatures of the tropical western Indian Ocean indicates a close relationship between the Indian Ocean climate system and the discharge of the Nile River.     

Fingerprint of tropical climate variability and sea level in sediments of the Cariaco Basin during the last glacial period

High‐resolution palaeorecords of climate are critical to improving current understanding of climate variability, its sensitivity and impact on the environment in the past and in the future. Sediments from the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela have proven to be sensitive recorders of tropical palaeoclimate variability down to an annual scale. However, the fingerprint of climate and sea level in the sediments of the last glacial period is still not completely understood. In this study, lamination analysis of sediments from the Cariaco Basin is extended to the last glacial period. Detailed sedimentological and geochemical analysis (laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry) reveals couplets of light‐coloured, terrigenous‐rich and dark‐coloured, biogenic opal‐rich laminae, which are interpreted to reflect the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, a previously undescribed, nearly pure terrigenous lamina type is observed, which is referred to hereafter as a ‘C‐layer’. The C‐layers in the sedimentary sequence are interpreted as flood layers that originate from local rivers. The occurrence of these C‐layers is investigated for two core locations in the Cariaco Basin over the last 110 kyr by continuous X‐ray fluorescence scanning. Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations are most clearly traced by proxies reflecting productivity and marine organic matter content of the sediment. In contrast, the abundance of terrigenous material differs at times between the two sites. On an interglacial to glacial timescale, the ability to record events causing C‐layers is likely to be influenced by changes in sea level and source proximity. On a millennial scale, both sediment cores contain more C‐layers during warmer interstadials compared with colder stadials during Marine Isotope Stage 3. This finding implies that interstadials were not only wetter than stadials, but probably also characterized by increased rainfall variability, leading to an enhanced frequency of flooding events in the hinterland of the Cariaco Basin.     

A new microsplitter for unconsolidated sediments

Unrepresentative subsamples can be obtained from a sedimentary sample through repeated subdivision when using a mechanical microsplitter. Physical biases are often compounded by repetition and can result in wide variations among the estimates computed from the relative proportion of foraminifera of a given species. A new microsplitter, designed on a new principle, has been built to separate small representative subsamples. The device is based on the uniform distribution of unconsolidated sediments suspended in water. A subsample of the desired size is obtained by collecting sediment from an appropriate sedimentation area. Operation of this sampler is rapid and convenient and requires only one step, thus eliminating sampling biases introduced by repeated operations with other splitters. This new device was tested and found to be superior to the Otto Microsplitter according to some statistical goodness-of-fit tests conducted on the series.     

The cost of achieving South Africa’s ‘fair share’ of global climate change mitigation

Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance.

Key policy insights

• South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so.

• Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available.

• Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change.

     

An investigation into intersex amphipods and a possible association with aquaculture

The amphipod, Echinogammarus marinus, is common in sheltered coastal inlets, such as estuaries and sea lochs, in Scotland and exhibits increased levels of intersex in some contaminated areas. Sea lochs are commonly the location for coastal aquaculture development, and some chemicals used in fish-farming are specifically designed to target the crustacean nervous system. Therefore it was hypothesised that these chemicals may also affect neuro-endocrine pathways, causing morphological and reproductive abnormalities in non-target Crustacea. Based upon this hypothesis, Echinogammarus marinus amphipods from two different Scottish sea lochs containing salmon farms were investigated. Morphology, intersexuality, and the incidence of microsporidian parasites were recorded at sites close and at distance from fish-farms. Results suggest a higher incidence of intersexuality at sites within sea lochs, comparable to that observed in industrially contaminated sites elsewhere in Scotland. The data suggest that fish farming activity may influence the observed distributions of intersexuality within lochs. Intersex specimens were more likely to be infected by microsporidian parasites than non-intersex specimens. Normal females were found more likely to be infected by microsporidian parasites at sites associated with high intersexuality, suggesting the parasite as the probable feminiser. The cause(s) for the observed patterns of intersexuality are unclear, although suggestions relating to discharges from fish farms are discussed.