La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Rivers, chemical weathering and Earth's climate

We detail the results of recent studies describing and quantifying the large-scale chemical weathering of the main types of continental silicate rocks: granites and basalts. These studies aim at establishing chemical weathering laws for these two lithologies, describing the dependence of chemical weathering on environmental parameters, such as climate and mechanical erosion. As shown within this contribution, such mathematical laws are of primary importance for numerical models calculating the evolution of the partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ and the Earth climate at geological timescales. The major results can be summarized as follow: (1) weathering of continental basaltic lithologies accounts for about 30% of the total consumption of atmospheric CO₂ through weathering of continental silicate rocks. This is related to their high weatherability (about eight times greater than the granite weatherability); (2) a simple weathering law has been established for basaltic lithologies, giving the consumption of atmospheric CO₂ as a function of regional continental runoff, and mean annual regional temperature; (3) no such simple weathering law can be proposed for granitic lithologies, since the effect of temperature can only be identified for regions displaying high continental runoff; (4) a general law relating mechanical erosion and chemical weathering has been validated on small and large catchments. The consequences of these major advances on the climatic evolution of the Earth are discussed. Particularly, the impacts of the onset of the Deccan trapps and the Himalayan orogeny on the global carbon cycle are reinvestigated. To cite this article: B. Dupré et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

Subsurface DC resistivity mapping: approximate 1-D interpretation

Resistivity prospecting is the main tool used to investigate the shallow structure of the ground. A series of new techniques for determining the 2-D and 3-D geometry of the ground is now finding increasing use, but the light and simple Wenner prospecting technique remains a practical and efficient tool for rapidly mapping lateral variations in resistivity. When the resistivity changes are smooth, 1-D modelling can be used to interpret the data, and the criteria governing this approximation can be defined from synthetic data generated by a 3-D slab-model. For a Wenner array, two quadripole configurations can be used, Normal and Dipole-Dipole. For these two configurations the width of the transition zone, the apparent anisotropy effect and the precision of the resistivity values recovered from 1-D inversion differ. However the simultaneous inversion of both sets of data gives better results than for either configuration by itself. Two examples illustrate that in geological contexts where the thickness of the weathered zone causes the changes in the apparent resistivity value, this parameter can be recovered from 1-D inversion.     

Internal erosion of chemically reinforced granular materials: a mathematical modeling approach

Internal erosion (IE) affects the stability of natural and reinforced materials by causing instability within their granular structure. The dislodgement and transport of eroded particles affect both the particulate concentration of eroding fluid and the pore network of eroded material. In this study, we examined these modifications using a transport model with a finite element code. First, IE tests on chemically reinforced sand columns were performed to obtain information about eroded material loss of mass, particulate concentration of effluent, porosity and permeability modifications, and existing IE stages. Second, based on experimental results, a mathematical one‐dimensional model has been formulated to monitor the evolution and spatial distribution of erodible solids, fluidized particles, porosity, permeability, and seepage stresses. The model consists of a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations solved in sequence. It provides valuable information about the extent and the dynamics of structural changes, which can be used to estimate an IE time for the hydraulic work to reach failure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlinear Mechanical Behavior Analysis of Flexible Lateritic Pavements of Senegal (West Africa) by FEM for M.-E. Pavement Design

Pavement design in Senegal is based on a linear elastic behavior of pavement materials and the hypothesis of a static loading. However, previous works on the mechanical behavior of road materials showed that this one is reversible after several loading cycles and depends on the applied stress. The described behavior is from then on, purely nonlinear. One of the objectives of this research is to determine the parameters of response of lateritic pavement materials submitted to road traffic by using FEM. Therefore, experiments were made on gravel lateritic soils from Dougar, Sébikotane, Mont-Rolland, Pâ Lo and Ngoundiane. The Young’s modulus of the materials was defined in unconfined compression test while repeated load triaxial test was performed to determine the resilient modulus of the gravels and the appropriate model (Uzan model). An implementation was realized with Cast3M©. The importance of the nonlinearity was revealed in a very clear way and was crucial in the construction of the calculation algorithm. The observations for certain conditions showed that the values of the critical responses are more important for the linear model than for the nonlinear model. However, this trend should be validated by further studies.     

Spatio-temporal Variability Sea Level Pressure （SLP） the Mid-to-Low Reaches of Northern Hemipheric and Precipitation over of the Yangtze River

The spatio-temporal variability of Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure （SLP） and precipitation over the mid-to-low reaches of the Yangtze River （PMLY） is analyzed jointly using the multi-taper/singular value decomposition method （MTM-SVD）. Statistically significant narrow frequency bands are obtained from the local fractional variance （LFV） spectrum. Significant interdecadal （i.e., 16-to-18-year periods） and interannual （i.e., 3-to-6-year periods） signals are identified. Moreover, a significant quasi-biennial signal is identified but only for PMLY data. The spatial joint evolution of patterns obtained for peaks in the LFV spectrum sheds light on relationships between SLP and PMLY： the Arctic Oscillation （AO） modulates the variability of the PMLY while the interannual variability of PMLY is in phase with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and the Northern Pacific Oscillation （NPO）.     

Mechanisms of orthopyroxene dissolution in silica-undersaturated melts at 1 atmosphere and implications for the origin of silica-rich glass in mantle xenoliths

Experiments dissolving orthopyroxene (En₉₃) in a variety of Si-undersaturated alkaline melts at 1 atmosphere and variable f _O2 demonstrate that orthopyroxene dissolves to form olivine, Si-rich melt and clinopyroxene. These phases form a texturally and chemically distinct boundary layer around the partly dissolved orthopyroxene crystals. The occurrence of clinopyroxene in the boundary layer is due to inward diffusion of Ca from the solvent melt to the boundary layer causing clinopyroxene saturation. Compositional profiles through the solvent and the boundary layer for a number of experiments demonstrate rapid diffusion of cations across the boundary layer – solvent interface. SiO₂ diffuses outward from the boundary layer whereas CaO and Al₂O₃ diffuse toward the Si-enriched boundary layer melt. The rate of Al diffusion is slower under reducing conditions compared to the rates in experiments performed in air. Concentrations of FeO and MgO in the boundary layer and solvent are approximately equal indicating rapid diffusion and attainment of equilibrium despite ongoing crystallisation of clinopyroxene within the boundary layer. The behaviour of Na₂O and K₂O is strongly affected by f _O2. Under reducing conditions Na₂O and K₂O concentrations are approximately equal in the boundary layer and solvent indicating normal diffusion down the concentration gradient and attainment of equilibrium. Under oxidising conditions, K₂O and to a lesser extent Na₂O, have compositional profiles indicative of uphill diffusion likely due to their preference for more polymerised Si- and Al-rich melts. Under reduced conditions Al-enrichment in the boundary layer melt is not as extreme and uphill diffusion did not occur. The composition of the solvent melt after the experiments indicates that it was contaminated by the boundary layer by convective mixing due to the onset of hydrodynamic instabilities brought on by density and viscosity contrasts between the two melts. Despite using a wide variety of solvent melt compositions we find that the boundary layer melts converge toward a common composition at high SiO₂ contents. The composition of glass generated by orthopyroxene dissolution at 1 atmosphere is similar in many respects to Si-rich glass found in many orthopyroxene-rich mantle xenoliths that have been attributed to high pressure in situ processes including mantle metasomatism. The results of this study suggest that at least some Si-rich melts are likely to have formed by dissolution of xenolith orthopyroxene at low pressure possibly by their Si-undersaturated host magmas. Received: 30 August 1996 / Accepted: 15 April 1998     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Nouvelle interprétation structurale de la « faille Nord- Pyrénéenne » en vallée d'Aspe (Pyrénées-Atlantiques). Remise en question d'un plutonisme ophitique danien dans le secteur de Bedous

In the Aspe Valley (western Pyrenees), the Europe/Iberia boundary corresponds to a complex fracturing zone, called the ‘Bielle–Accous Wrench-Faulting Corridor’, which represents the classical ‘North-Pyrenean Fault’. Located between the High Primary Range and the North-Pyrenean Zone, the BAWC shows different south-verging sheets mainly composed of Triassic materials. The Bedous ophite, associated with Muschelkalk and Keuper sediments, is also Triassic in age and involved in the same Pyrenean thrusting structures. So, contrary to a recent interpretation, this magmatic rock cannot be related to a supposed Danian plutonism inducing metamorphic processes in the surrounding Mesozoic formations. To cite this article: J. Canérot et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).