Surface pressure profiles, vortex structure and initialization for hurricane prediction. Part II: numerical simulations of track, structure and intensity

In part 1 of this study, an assessment of commonly used surface pressure profiles to represent TC structures was made. Using the Australian tropical cyclone model, the profiles are tested in case studies of high-resolution prediction of track, structure and intensity. We demonstrate that: (1) track forecasts are mostly insensitive to the imposed structure; (2) in some cases [here Katrina (2005)], specification of vortex structure can have a large impact on prediction of structure and intensity; (3) the forecast model mostly preserves the characteristics of the initial structure and so correct structure at t?=?0 is a requirement for improved structure forecasting; and (4) skilful prediction of intensity does not guarantee skilful prediction of structure. It is shown that for Ivan (2004) the initial structure from each profile is preserved during the simulations, and that markedly different structures can have similar intensities. Evidence presented suggests that different initial profiles can sometimes change the timing of intensification. Thus, correct initial vortex structure is an essential ingredient for more accurate intensity and structure prediction.     

一个新的矿物面扫描分析方法开发和地质学应用

LA-ICP-MS面扫描分析近些年来发展的新兴技术,相对于其他面扫描仪器,其具有样品制样流程简单、仪器购置和分析成本低、分析时间短、检测限低、多元素表面分析(5μm)、近乎无损等分析优势,在地球科学和生物学领域有着大量的应用。本文系统介绍了作者应用Photon Machines激光剥蚀系统与安捷伦ICP-MS新开发矿物元素面扫描分析方法。该方法基于近些年来开发的双室样品仓技术和Matlab软件,通过自主开发的LaIcpMsSoftware(LIMS)进行数据处理来完成的。本次研究开发的激光面扫描分析技术可以在短时间内(2小时)分析3mm×3mm区域,并同时给出多组元素(包括稀土元素等)在二维平面的分布特征。论文详细描述了LIMS工作原理和特点,相对于国外同类型软件,LIMS具有操作简单,并具有多种数据显示模式和剖面切割展示,元素比值面分布分析等优势,便于后期数据分析与解译。同时,还展示了对斜长石、白钨矿和石榴子石进行面扫描分析的初步结果。研究表明,通过LA-ICP-MS面扫描,可以获得比点分析更为准确的元素分布特征,并能够更为直观的展示不同元素在矿物分布特征和相关关系,更好的开展矿物地球化学研究。     

Hydromechanical reactivation of natural discontinuities: mesoscale experimental observations and DEM modeling

Fracture interaction mechanisms and reactivation of natural discontinuities under fluid pressurization conditions can represent critical issues in risk assessment of caprock integrity. A field injection test, carried out in a damage fault zone at the decameter scale, i.e., mesoscale, has been studied using a distinct element model. Given the complex structural nature of the damage fault zone hydraulically loaded, the contribution of fracture sets on the bulk permeability has been investigated. It has been shown that their orientation for a given in situ stress field plays a major role. Based on these results, a simpler model with a fluid-driven fracture intersecting a second fracture has been set up to perform a sensitivity analysis. It is in presence of a minimum differential stress value with a minimum angle with the maximum principal stress that the second fracture could be both, hydraulically and mechanically reactivated. Results also showed that in the vicinity of the fluid-driven fracture, a natural fracture will offer contrasted hydromechanical responses on each side of the intersection depending on the stress conditions and its orientation with respect to the stress field. In this case, we show that a hydromechanical decoupling can occur along the same plane. These results provide insights into fracture-controlled permeability of fault zones depending on the properties of the fractures and their hydromechanical interactions for a given in situ stress field.

     

Oligotrophication from wetland epuration alters the riverine trophic network and carrying capacity for fish

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) constitutes a major component of fish habitat, providing support for epiphytes and invertebrates as well as shelter from predators. The effects of wetland epuration from a mesotrophic to a nearly oligotrophic state were examined over a 15?km long reach of the St. Lawrence River under the direct influence of major farmland tributaries. We hypothesized that the nutrient-enriched zone would support a higher biomass of SAV, epiphytes, macroinvertebrates and fish than the nitrogen-deficient epurated zone located downstream of the wetland. Predictions included that the enriched habitat would support a richer fish assemblage, with higher biomass and growth of juvenile yellow perch than found in the epurated zone. Results supported these hypotheses, demonstrating the chain of effects of nutrient reduction on the biomass of SAV (fourfold drop), invertebrate prey (ninefold), small (threefold) and large (1.5-fold) fish between the two zones. In addition to the reduction in SAV biomass, the replacement of filamentous chlorophytes by benthic mats of filamentous cyanobacteria in the epurated zone resulted in a less complex 3-D habitat structure and a low invertebrate availability for fish. Oligotrophication by wetland epuration exerted negative effects on fish habitat quality, food quantity and availability, with an impairment of juvenile perch growth and recruitment. A generalized model of the changes in habitat carrying capacity occurring with epuration (oligotrophication) or eutrophication is presented, with examples of other aquatic systems in which strong linkages between trophic status, SAV, invertebrates and fish productivity were also demonstrated.     

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.     

Spectral band decomposition combined with nonlinear models: application to indoor formaldehyde concentration forecasting

This paper proposes a new approach for forecasting continuous indoor air quality time series and in particular the concentration of a common air pollutant in offices like formaldehyde. Forecasting is achieved through the combination of the spectral band decomposition using fast Fourier transform and nonlinear time series modeling. Two nonlinear models have been tested: a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and a Chaos dynamics-based modeling. This study shows the benefit of the Fourier decomposition coupled with nonlinear modeling of each extracted component, compared to forecasting applied directly on the raw data. Both TAR and Chaos dynamics models are able to reproduce nonlinearities, with slightly better performance in the case of the second model. These hybrid models provide good performance on forecast time horizon up to 12 h ahead.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

Historical and future development of the tidally averaged transport of sandy sediments in the Scheldt estuary: a 2D exploratory model

Ocean Dynamics - To investigate the historical development of the tidally averaged transport of sandy sediments in the main branch of the Scheldt estuary over the last decades (1950–2013), a...     

Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable.