Discrimination of Mine Seismic Events and Blasts Using the Fisher Classifier,Naive Bayesian Classifier and Logistic Regression

Seismic events and blasts generate seismic waveforms that have different characteristics. The challenge to confidently differentiate these two signatures is complex and requires the integration of physical and statistical techniques. In this paper, the different characteristics of blasts and seismic events were investigated by comparing probability density distributions of different parameters. Five typical parameters of blasts and events and the probability density functions of blast time, as well as probability density functions of origin time difference for neighbouring blasts were extracted as discriminant indicators. The Fisher classifier, naive Bayesian classifier and logistic regression were used to establish discriminators. Databases from three Australian and Canadian mines were established for training, calibrating and testing the discriminant models. The classification performances and discriminant precision of the three statistical techniques were discussed and compared. The proposed discriminators have explicit and simple functions which can be easily used by workers in mines or researchers. Back-test, applied results, cross-validated results and analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves in different mines have shown that the discriminator for one of the mines has a reasonably good discriminating performance.     

Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

Previous works suggest decadal predictions of Sahel rainfall could be skillful. However, the sources of such skill are still under debate. In addition, previous results are based on short validation periods (i.e. less than 50 years). In this work we propose a framework based on multi-linear regression analysis to study the potential sources of skill for predicting Sahel trends several years ahead. We apply it to an extended decadal hindcast performed with the MPI-ESM-LR model that span from 1901 to 2010 with 1 year sampling interval. Our results show that the skill mainly depends on how well we can predict the timing of the global warming (GW), the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and, to a lesser extent, the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation signals, and on how well the system simulates the associated SST and West African rainfall response patterns. In the case of the MPI-ESM-LR decadal extended hindcast, the observed timing is well reproduced only for the GW and AMV signals. However, only the West African rainfall response to the AMV is correctly reproduced. Thus, for most of the lead times the main source of skill in the decadal hindcast of West African rainfall is from the AMV. The GW signal degrades skill because the response of West African rainfall to GW is incorrectly captured. Our results also suggest that initialized decadal predictions of West African rainfall can be further improved by better simulating the response of global SST to GW and AMV. Furthermore, our approach may be applied to understand and attribute prediction skill for other variables and regions.

     

Comparison between measured and calculated tidal ellipses in the German Bight

Using a three-dimensional non-linear shelf model, the elliptical properties (ellipticity, inclination of the ellipse, major and minor semi-axis and phase) of the M₂ tide in the German Bight were calculated and compared with CODAR measurements. A series of barotropic and baroclinic calculations were carried out to investigate the influence of geometry, stratification and particularly inputs of freshwater on these parameters. The elliptical properties undergo stronger changes in zones of influence of embayments and in the deepening of the old Elbe Valley. Friction effects in the shallow areas are responsible for robust vertical variations of the ellipticity. The island of Helgoland induces wakes on its western and eastern sides. The discharge of freshwater of the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems induced in general negative ellipticity. Although primarily determined by geography, baroclinic effects significantly modified the inclination of the ellipses. The calculated ellipses pattern of anticlockwise and clockwise tidal current rotation agrees quite well with CODAR measurements. The elliptical properties give a general idea of the interaction of tidal waves with coastal geometries.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Analyse des rapports C/N/P du seston dans la partie orientale de l'atlantique equatorial

A study of the C/N ratios of particulate matter in the eastern part of the Gulf of Guinea demonstrated a statistically significant spatial variation in these ratios. The variation in the ratios ranged between 7.2 and 9.5 and were due in part to differences in the composition of the suspended organic matter and in part to its age and history. Young nutrient rich waters had low ratios (generally less than 7), whereas older waters often had ratios greater than 10. A relation between Chlorophyl a and the C/N ratio was also observed. The distribution of C/P ratios with depth showed a linear correlation with the vertical distribution of oxygen (r = 0.74). C/P values in the neighbourhood of 100 at the surface, increased with depth to around 300 at 1000 m.