A hierarchical generalized linear model with variable selection: studying the response of a representative fish assemblage for large European rivers in a multi-pressure context

Global change calls for an understanding of how temperature and flow regimes influence aquatic ecosystems. Fish assemblages are a major component of river ecosystems and are thought to exhibit more integrative informative responses than single species to environmental variations, whether rare and sudden or gradual and continuous. The use of long-term datasets is thus of primary importance, allied to statistical modeling. For each of three previously identified species clusters, we performed Bayesian variable selection and inference within a hierarchical log Poisson Generalized Linear Model using a spike and slab normal prior to pinpoint which subset of environmental variables is of importance for each fish assemblage. Fish counts from electrofishing experiments are known to provide overdispersed data and, not surprisingly, the contribution of recorded environmental effects is found to be weak compared with those of other intra-assemblage sources of variation. The posterior distribution of the regression parameters is in coherence with what was expected from biological knowledge of the three species clusters. In particular, thermophilic species tend to benefit from warmer waters, whereas the recruitment of cold water species decreases due to global warming effects. Our study provides an example of the advantages of hierarchical modeling for quantifying interspecies ecological effects and selecting common environmental variables of importance.     

Fradkin-Bacry-Ruegg-Souriau perihelion vector for Gorringe-Leach equations

We show that every generalized Gorringe-Leach equation admits an associated Fradkin-Bacry-Ruegg-Souriau’s vector which, in general, is only a piecewise conserved quantity. In the case of dualizable generalized Gorringe-Leach equations, which include the case of conservative motions in central power law potentials, the image sets of the FBRS vectors for dual classes are dual images of each other.     

A spherical Monte-Carlo model of aerosols: Validation and first applications to Mars and Titan

The atmospheres of Mars and Titan are loaded with aerosols that impact remote sensing observations of their surface. Here we present the algorithm and the first applications of a radiative transfer model in spherical geometry designed for planetary data analysis. We first describe a fast Monte-Carlo code that takes advantage of symmetries and geometric redundancies. We then apply this model to observations of the surface of Mars and Titan at the terminator as acquired by OMEGA/Mars Express and VIMS/Cassini. These observations are used to probe the vertical distribution of aerosols down to the surface. On Mars, we find the scale height of dust particles to vary between 6 km and 12 km depending on season. Temporal variations in the vertical size distribution of aerosols are also highlighted. On Titan, an aerosols scale height of 80 ± 10 km is inferred, and the total optical depth is found to decrease with wavelength as a power-law with an exponent of −2.0 ± 0.4 from a value of 2.3 ± 0.5 at 1.08 μm. Once the aerosols properties have been constrained, the model is used to retrieve surface reflectance properties at high solar zenith angles and just after sunset.     

Model complexity and data requirements in snow hydrology: seeking a balance in practical applications

We investigate the problem of balancing model complexity and input data requirements in snow hydrology. For this purpose, we analyze the performance of two models of different complexity in estimating variables of interest in snow hydrology applications. These are snow depth, bulk snow density, snow water equivalent and snowmelt run‐off. We quantify the differences between data and model prediction using 18 years of measurements from an experimental site in the French Alps (Col de Porte, 1325 m AMSL). The models involved in this comparison are a one‐layer temperature‐index model (HyS) and a multilayer model (Crocus). Results show that the expected loss in performance in the one‐layer temperature‐index model with respect to the multilayer model is low when considering snow depth, snow water equivalent and bulk snow density. As for run‐off, the comparison returns less clear indications for identification of a balance. In particular, differences between the models' prediction and data with an hourly resolution are higher when considering the Crocus model than the HyS model. However, Crocus is better at reproducing sub‐daily cycles in this variable. In terms of daily run‐off, the multilayer physically based model seems to be a better choice, while results in terms of cumulative run‐off are comparable. The better reproduction of daily and sub‐daily variability of run‐off suggests that use of the multilayer model may be preferable for this purpose. Variation in performance is discussed as a function of both the calibration solution chosen and the time of year. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Antifouling activity of commercial biocides vs. natural and natural-derived products assessed by marine bacteria adhesion bioassay

Biofilm formation is a key step during marine biofouling, the natural colonization of immersed substrata, leading to major economic and ecological consequences. Consequently, bacteria have been used for the screening of new non-toxic antifoulants: the adhesion of five strains isolated on three French locations was monitored using a fluorescence-based assay and toxicity was also evaluated. Nine biocides including commercial, natural and natural-derived products were tested. The commercial antifoulants, TBTO and Sea Nine showed low EC₅₀ but high toxicity. The non-commercial products TFA-Z showed significant anti-adhesion activities and appeared to be non-toxic, suggesting a specific anti-adhesion mechanism. In addition, the strains could be classified depending on their sensitivity to the molecules used even if strain sensitivity also depended on the molecules tested. In conclusion, TFA-Z would be a promising candidate as non-toxic antifoulant and our results strengthen the need to perform antifouling bioassays with a panel of strains showing different response profiles.     

Adsorption of xenon ions onto defects in organic surfaces: Implications for the origin and the nature of organics in primitive meteorites

Noble gases trapped in primitive meteorites are quantitatively hosted by a poorly defined organic phase, labeled phase Q. Xenon is enriched in heavy isotopes by +1.30 ± 0.06% per atomic mass unit (amu, 1σ) in phase Q relative to solar. To understand the origin of this fractionation, we have performed adsorption experiments of xenon atoms and ions, ionized in a radiofrequency plasma. Within the reaction vessel, anthracite was heated and the resulting smoke deposited onto the walls of the vessel, resulting in carbon-rich films. Xenon was trapped in the carbon films either as ions in the ionization zone of the vessel, or as neutral atoms outside this zone. Xenon trapped as ionic Xe is tightly bound and is enriched by +1.36 ± 0.05%/amu (1σ) in heavy isotopes, reproducing the isotopic fractionation of xenon trapped in phase Q relative to solar. Neutral xenon is more loosely trapped, is in much lower concentration, and is not isotopically fractionated. Ionized conditions allow the constant xenon isotopic composition observed in meteorite during stepwise heating release to be reproduced. Furthermore, the trapping efficiency of Xe⁺ estimated from these experiments is consistent with the high xenon concentration measured in phase Q of primitives meteorites.Xenon was not trapped in the film by implantation because the energies of the incident Xe atoms and ions were far too low (<1 eV). From the difference of behavior between ionic and neutral forms, we propose that xenon ions were trapped via chemical bonding at the surface of the newly created C-rich film. The observed mass-dependent fractionation of xenon is unlikely to have occurred in the gas phase. It is more probably related to variations in chemical bonding strengths of Xe isotopes as chemical bonds involving heavy Xe isotopes are more stable than those involving light ones. For young stars, including the young Sun, photons emitted in the far UV energy range able to ionize noble gases (<100 nm) were orders of magnitude more abundant than for the Present-day Sun, allowing efficient ionization of gaseous species. A way to achieve Q-noble gas fractionation and trapping was UV irradiation by nearby young stars from O/B association of the surface of growing organic grains in the outer part of the solar system or by the young Sun at the edge of the disk.     

A Critical Assessment of Dynamic Rock Reinforcement and Support Testing Facilities

A major engineering challenge for mines experiencing significant seismicity is the performance of the support systems. This paper provides a critical review of dynamic testing techniques used for understanding and quantifying the performance of ground support systems. This review focuses on testing rigs in Canada, Australia and South Africa. The different laboratory testing rigs are listed along with their characteristics and their advantages and disadvantages. The paper concludes with recommendations towards developing a more unified strategy to understand and eventually forecast the behaviour of support systems under dynamic loads.     

On the relationships between features of the depth–latitude meridional overturning streamfunctions across global coupled climate models

A comparative analysis of the state and response of the latitude–depth meridional overturning streamfunctions in the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 3 (CMIP3) model set is presented. Simulated overturning strengths of the North Atlantic cell tend to converge towards observational estimates. The models whose simulations of the North Atlantic cell are closest to observational estimates indicate a 29.5 ± 13 % decrease in the maximum intensity of that cell by 2,100. In contrast, agreement with regard to the state and the response to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the global Southern Ocean abyssal cell is poor among the models. A weak relationship between the mean state and the response of the abyssal cell can be used to constrain the reduction of the Southern abyssal cell by 2,100 to 29.3 ± 20.7 %, in rough agreement with the decrease predicted in the Northern cell. The biases across the CMIP3 models in the Northern deep cell and Southern abyssal cell cannot be related dynamically by a buoyancy-based seesaw-like argument. The absence or presence of characteristic relationships between the state and evolution of different features of the overturning streamfunction indicate that the main reasons for across-model spread are how each model deals with subgrid-scale processes and viscosity. This highlights the fact that subgrid-scale parameterizations and resolution improvements should be a priority of model development. These factors are able to explain qualitatively the inter-model differences between the Northern overturning cells of the different models. Across-model differences in the winds over the Southern Ocean are responsible for much of the disparity in the overturning circulation cells of the Southern Ocean.     

Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic

A homogeneous monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress based on in situ observations is used to investigate the climatic trends over the tropical Atlantic during the last five decades (1964–2012). After a decrease of SST by about 1 °C during 1964–1975, most apparent in the northern tropical region, the entire tropical basin warmed up. That warming was the most substantial (>1 °C) in the eastern tropical ocean and in the longitudinal band of the intertropical convergence zone. Surprisingly, the trade wind system also strengthened over the peirod 1964–2012. Complementary information extracted from other observational data sources confirms the simultaneity of SST warming and the strengthening of the surface winds. Examining data sets of surface heat flux during the last few decades for the same region, we find that the SST warming was not a consequence of atmospheric heat flux forcing. Conversely, we suggest that long-term SST warming drives changes in atmosphere parameters at the sea surface, most notably an increase in latent heat flux, and that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle induces a strengthening of the trade winds and an acceleration of the Hadley circulation. These trends are also accompanied by rising sea levels and upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic. Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens from the mid-1970’s, it is likely that changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations.