Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An enhanced constitutive model for crushable granular materials

Studies in the past have tried to reproduce the mechanical behaviour of granular materials by proposing constitutive relations based on a common assumption that model parameters and parameters describing the properties, including gradation of individual grains are inevitably linked. However successful these models have proved to be, they cannot account for the changes in granular assembly behaviour if the grains start to break during mechanical loading. This paper proposes to analyse the relation between grading change and the mechanical behaviour of granular assembly. A way to model the influence of grain breakage is to use a critical state‐based model. The influence of the amount of grain breakage during loading, depending on the individual grain strength and size distribution, can be introduced into constitutive relations by means of a new parameter that controls the evolution of critical state with changes in grain size distribution. Experimental data from a calcareous sand, a quartz sand, and a rockfill material were compared with numerical results and good‐quality simulations were obtained. The main consequences of grain breakage are increased compressibility and a gradual dilatancy disappearance in the granular material. The critical state concept is also enriched by considering its overall relation to the evolution of the granular material. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preliminary spectral characterization of snow in a high altitude tropical glacier and potential effects of impurities in snow on albedo of tropical glaciers

This paper presents some preliminary measurements of snow spectral reflectance on the tropical Bolivian Zongo glacier. Measurements show a correct agreement with theoretical spectral albedo of pure snow in the near infrared region, but lower values in the visible region (by 10–20%) probably due to aerosols contained in snow. Impurity contents ranged from 10 to 100 ppmw in one‐week‐old snow collected from the Zongo glacier, but measurements are scarce. Large amounts of snowfall partly compensate the proximity of dust sources in mid‐latitude glaciers, whereas on outer‐tropical glaciers precipitations are not abundant and are very seasonal, and sources of aerosols are proximate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

X1908+075: A Late O-Type Supergiant with a Neutron Star Companion

X1908 + 075 is a highly-absorbed Galactic X-ray source likely made up of a pulsar accreting wind material from a massive companion. We have used near-IR photometric data complemented by follow-up spectroscopy to identify the likely counterpart to this X-ray source and to assign a spectral type O7.5–9.5 If to the primary. Further details can be found in Morel and Grosdidier (2005).     

Properties of unstable waves in the lower St Lawrence Estuary

Abstract

The lower St Lawrence Estuary is an interesting case amongst estuaries in that it is wide enough to accommodate the development of mesoscale unstable waves and eddies. These features are generated by the runoff‐driven jet along this body's south shore. We present data yielding estimates of the length, time and velocity scales of these unstable disturbances. To relate these quantities to the dynamics we employ a 2‐layer quasigeos‐trophic instability model featuring realistic lateral shear. All model runs show short time and length scales, e‐folding periods of less than 10 days and wavelengths less than 50 km.     

Displacements and transformations of nitrate-rich and nitrate-poor water masses in the tropical Pacific during the 1997 El Niño

A Lagrangian analysis was applied to the outputs of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model to describe the redistribution of nitrate-rich and nitrate-poor surface water masses in the tropical Pacific throughout the major 1997 El Niño. The same tool was used to analyze the causes of nitrate changes along trajectories and to investigate the consequences of the slow nitrate uptake in the high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) region during the growth phase of the event. Three patterns were identified during the drift of water masses. The first mechanism is well known along the equator: oligotrophic waters from the western Pacific are advected eastward and retain their oligotrophic properties along their drift. The second concerns the persistent upwelling in the eastern basin. Water parcels have complex trajectories within this retention zone and remain mesotrophic. This study draws attention to the third process which is very specific to the HNLC region and to the El Niño period. During the 1997 El Niño, horizontal and vertical inputs of nitrate decreased so dramatically that nitrate uptake by phytoplankton became the only mechanism driving nitrate changes along pathways. The study shows that because of the slow nitrate uptake characteristic of the tropical Pacific HNLC system, nitrate in the pre-El Niño photic layer can support biological production for a period of several months. As a consequence, the slow nitrate uptake delays the gradual onset of oligotrophic conditions over nearly all the area usually occupied by upwelled waters. Owing to this process, mesotrophic conditions persist in the tropical Pacific during El Niño events.     

Heliocentric evolution of the degradation of polyoxymethylene: Application to the origin of the formaldehyde (H2CO) extended source in Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp)

The H₂CO production rates measured in Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) from radio wavelength observations [Biver, N., and 22 colleagues, 2002a. Earth Moon Planets 90, 5-14] showed a steep increase with decreasing heliocentric distance. We studied the heliocentric evolution of the degradation of polyoxymethylene (formaldehyde polymers: (CH₂O)_n, also called POM) into gaseous H₂CO. POM decomposition can indeed explain the H₂CO density profile measured in situ by Giotto spacecraft in the coma of Comet 1P/Halley, which is not compatible with direct release from the nucleus [Cottin, H., Bénilan, Y., Gazeau, M.-C., Raulin, F., 2004. Icarus 167, 397-416]. We show that the H₂CO production curve measured in Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) can be accurately reproduced by this mechanism with a few percents by mass of solid POM in grains. The steep heliocentric evolution is explained by the thermal degradation of POM at distances less than 3.5 AU. This study demonstrates that refractory organics present in cometary dust can significantly contribute to the composition of the gaseous coma. POM, or POM-like polymers, might be present in cometary grains. Other molecules, like CO and HNC, might also be produced by a similar process.