La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

A structural model for the seismicity of the Arudy (1980) epicentral area (Western Pyrenees, France)

The Western Pyrenees presents a diffuse and moderate ( M ≤ 5.7) instrumental seismicity. It nevertheless historically suffered from strong earthquakes (I = IX MSK). The seismic sources of these events are not yet clearly identified. We focus on the Arudy (1980) epicentral area ( M = 5.1) and propose here the reactivation of early Cretaceous normal faults of the Iberian margin as a potential source. The late Cretaceous inversion of this basin, first in a left-lateral strike-slip mode and then in a more frontal convergence, resulted in a pop-up geometry. This flower structure attests of the presence of a deep crustal discontinuity.
The present-day geodynamic arrangement suggests that this accident is reactivated in a right lateral mode. This reactivation leads to a strain partitioning between the deep discontinuity that accommodates the lateral component of the motion and shallow thrusts, rooted on this discontinuity. These thrusts accommodate the shortening component of the strain. The distribution of the instrumental seismicity fits well the structural model of the Arudy basin. Whatever the compressive regional context, the structural behaviour of the system explains too the extensive stress tensor determined for the Arudy crisis if we interpret it in terms of strain ellipsoid. Indeed numerical modelling has shown that this concomitant activity of strike-slip and thrust faulting results in an extensive component that can rise 50 per cent of the finite strain.
We identify too a 25–30 km long potential seismic source for the Arudy area. The size of the structure and its potential reactivation in a strike-slip mode suggest that a maximum earthquake magnitude of ∼6.5 could be expected. The extrapolation of this model at the scale of the Western Pyrenees allows to propose other potential sources for major regional historical earthquakes.     

Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

Biogenic carbon flows through the planktonic food web of the Amundsen Gulf (Arctic Ocean): A synthesis of field measurements and inverse modeling analyses

Major pathways of biogenic carbon (C) flow are resolved for the planktonic food web of the flaw lead polynya system of the Amundsen Gulf (southeast Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean) in spring-summer 2008. This period was relevant to study the effect of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems as it was characterized by unusually low ice cover and warm sea surface temperature. Our synthesis relied on a mass balance estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of 52.5 ± 12.5 g C m⁻² calculated using the drawdown of nitrate and dissolved inorganic C, and a seasonal f-ratio of 0.64. Based on chlorophyll a biomass, we estimated that GPP was dominated by phytoplankton (93.6%) over ice algae (6.4%) and by large cells (>5 μm, 67.6%) over small cells (<5 μm, 32.4%). Ancillary in situ data on bacterial production, zooplankton biomass and respiration, herbivory, bacterivory, vertical particle fluxes, pools of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC), net community production (NCP), as well as selected variables from the literature were used to evaluate the fate of size-fractionated GPP in the ecosystem. The structure and functioning of the planktonic food web was elucidated through inverse analysis using the mean GPP and the 95% confidence limits of every other field measurement as lower and upper constraints. The model computed a net primary production of 49.2 g C m⁻², which was directly channeled toward dominant calanoid copepods (i.e. Calanus hyperboreus 20%, Calanus glacialis 10%, and Metridia longa 10%), other mesozooplankton (12%), microzooplankton (14%), detrital POC (18%), and DOC (16%). Bacteria required 29.9 g C m⁻², a demand met entirely by the DOC derived from local biological activities. The ultimate C outflow comprised respiration fluxes (82% of the initial GPP), a small sedimentation (3%), and a modest residual C flow (15%) resulting from NCP, dilution and accumulation. The sinking C flux at the model limit depth (395 m) supplied 60% of the estimated benthic C demand (2.8 g C m⁻²), suggesting that the benthos relied partly on other C sources within the bottom boundary layer to fuel its activity. In summary, our results illustrate that the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice promotes the growth of pelagic communities in the Amundsen Gulf, which benefited from a ∼80% increase in GPP in spring-summer 2008 when compared to 2004 – a year of average ice conditions and relatively low GPP. However, 53% of the secondary production was generated within the microbial food web, the net ecological efficiency of zooplankton populations was not particularly high (13.4%), and the quantity of biogenic C available for trophic export remained low (6.6 g C m⁻²). Hence it is unlikely that the increase in lower food web productivity, such as the one observed in our study, could support new harvestable fishery resources in the offshore Beaufort Sea domain.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Nouvelle interprétation structurale de la « faille Nord- Pyrénéenne » en vallée d'Aspe (Pyrénées-Atlantiques). Remise en question d'un plutonisme ophitique danien dans le secteur de Bedous

In the Aspe Valley (western Pyrenees), the Europe/Iberia boundary corresponds to a complex fracturing zone, called the ‘Bielle–Accous Wrench-Faulting Corridor’, which represents the classical ‘North-Pyrenean Fault’. Located between the High Primary Range and the North-Pyrenean Zone, the BAWC shows different south-verging sheets mainly composed of Triassic materials. The Bedous ophite, associated with Muschelkalk and Keuper sediments, is also Triassic in age and involved in the same Pyrenean thrusting structures. So, contrary to a recent interpretation, this magmatic rock cannot be related to a supposed Danian plutonism inducing metamorphic processes in the surrounding Mesozoic formations. To cite this article: J. Canérot et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Authigenic carbonates from methane seeps of the Congo deep-sea fan

Submersible investigations with the ROV Victor 6000 of some pockmark structures on the seafloor of the Congo deep-sea fan have shown that they are active venting sites of methane-rich fluids, associated with abundant fauna and carbonate crusts. Moreover, methane hydrates have been observed both outcropping and deep in the sediments in the centre of the “Regab” giant pockmark. Authigenic carbonates, mostly calcite sometimes mixed with aragonite, are cementing the sedimentary matrix components and fauna; diatoms are abundant but only as moulds, indicating that biogenic silica dissolution occurred in situ synchronous with carbonate precipitation. The occurrence of diagenetic barite and pyrite in some carbonate crusts demonstrates that they can be formed either within the sulphate/methane transition zone or deeper in sulphate-depleted sediments. The oxygen isotopic compositions of the diagenetic carbonates (3.17–6.01‰ V-PDB) indicate that precipitation occurred with bottom seawater mixed with a variable contribution of water from gas hydrate decomposition. The very low carbon isotopic compositions of the diagenetic carbonates (−57.1 to −27.75‰ V-PDB) demonstrate that carbon derives mostly from the microbial oxidation of methane.