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31.
32.
An advanced one-dimensional radiative-convective model (RCM) is used to estimate the past, present and fu-ture climatic forcings induced by greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, such as CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs, in this paper. The results show that the decadal climatic forcing for the last decade is one-order bigger than that prior to the year 1900, and in the case of no control on the emission of the greenhouse gases the climatic forcing for the year 2100 will be almost 4 times as much as now. 相似文献
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气象场经验正交函数不同展开方案收敛性问题的探讨 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
本文从理论上证明EOFs(经验正交函数)用于气象场时,三种不同计算方案特征值的相互关系.指出利用原始场积和矩阵展开的特征值λ_j等于用协方差阵展开的特征值λ_j~*加上平均场方差引起的特征值λ_j.进而论证了收敛速度差舁的原因.最后又以实例表明,不同展开方案的典型场意义及其与时间权重系数的对应关系. 相似文献
35.
我国夏季雨型的前期异常特征及预报方法的初步研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
用1951~1995年资料研究了我国东部夏季降水各雨型的前期大气环流及我国地面气象要素场的异常特征.结果表明,在冬季1月份北太平洋地区、秋季中国南海地区的海平面气压场有预报我国夏季雨型的信号.夏季不同雨型的前期冬季特征不同,我国的降水、气温场也有差异,4月份我国大范围的温度异常也是值得注意的预测信号.这些特征可以作为我国夏季雨型的预报信号及预报工具. 相似文献
36.
Statistical estimation of high-resolution surface air temperature from MODIS over the Yangtze River Delta,China 下载免费PDF全文
High-resolution surface air temperature data are critical to regional climate modeling in terms of energy balance, urban climate change, and so on. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) to estimate air temperature at a high resolution over the Yangtze River Delta region, China. It is found that daytime LST is highly correlated with maximum air temperature, and the linear regression coefficients vary with the type of land surface. The air temperature at a resolution of 1 km is estimated from the MODIS LST with linear regression models. The estimated air temperature shows a clear spatial structure of urban heat islands. Spatial patterns of LST and air temperature differences are detected, indicating maximum differences over urban and forest regions during summer. Validations are performed with independent data samples, demonstrating that the mean absolute error of the estimated air temperature is approximately 2.5°C, and the uncertainty is about 3.1°C, if using all valid LST data. The error is reduced by 0.4°C (15%) if using best-quality LST with errors of less than 1 K. The estimated high-resolution air temperature data have great potential to be used in validating high-resolution climate models and other regional applications. 相似文献
37.
We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and
ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate
of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface
ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to
the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated
with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ
estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or
indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between
the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated
with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the
reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower
half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared
to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the
Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates.
Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern
Hadley cell (∼20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell (∼20–60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences
stem from poorly measured oceanic regions which necessitate significant interpolation over broad regions. Moreover, they help
to pinpoint specific shortcomings in the present and previous in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation. Comparisons between
the subsampled and in situ estimates suggest that the subsampled estimate produces a slightly stronger Hadley circulation
in both hemispheres, with the relative differences in some seasons as large as 20–30%. 6These differences suggest that the
mean meridional circulation associated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is more energetic than observations suggest. Examination
of ENSO-related changes to the Hadley circulation suggest that the in situ and subsampled estimates significantly overestimate
the effects of ENSO on the Hadley circulation due to the reliance on sparsely distributed data. While all three estimates
capture the large-scale region of low-level equatorial convergence near the dateline that occurs during El Nino, the in situ
and subsampled estimates fail to effectively reproduce the large-scale areas of equatorial mass divergence to the west and
east of this convergence area, leading to an overestimate of the effects of ENSO on the zonal mean circulation.
Received: 16 September 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999 相似文献
38.
中国南极长城站1998年大气降水化学特征的初步研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
文中报告了 1998年 1~ 12月 ,在中国南极长城站 (6 2°13′S ,5 8°5 8′W ,海拔 10 .0m)采集的 115个有效降水样品的 pH值、电导率和化学组分分析结果。长城站地区降水的年平均 pH值为 5 .6 2 ,电导率年平均值为 85 .16 μS/cm。秋季期间降水的 pH值和电导率较高 ,其它季节较低。降水中最主要的离子为Cl-,Na+ ,其他离子按平均浓度值依次排列为SO42 -,Mg2 + ,Ca2 + ,K+ ,NO3 -,NH4+ 。除NO3 -,NH4+ 外 ,各主要离子浓度间呈显著正相关 ,表明其来源具有同一性。降水样品的离子组成比例与周围海区的海水接近 ,显示了海盐是降水中可溶性离子的主要来源 ,而其它源只对Ca2 + 有一定贡献。该地区的降水具有较典型的海洋性降水的化学特征 相似文献
39.
利用ARGO资料改进海洋资料同化和海洋模式中的物理过程 总被引:8,自引:1,他引:8
国际ARGO计划的实施每年将可提供多达 10万个剖面 (0~ 2 0 0 0m水深 )的海水温度和盐度资料 ,这些资料的获取无疑将会大大促进海洋和大气科学的发展 ,使人们加深对海洋过程的了解 ,揭示海 气相互作用的机理 ,为长期天气预报和短期气候预测提供模式初始场 ,提高长期天气预报和短期气候预测的能力。如何利用这些资料开展研究工作以及在实际业务中应用这些资料是目前大气和海洋科学界的一个前沿课题。本研究将ARGO浮标资料引入了国家气候中心的NCC GODAS同化系统 ,结果分析表明 ,同化ARGO资料后所得到的海温场在三大洋中不仅在温度数值的大小 ,而且在分布形式方面都与观测场具有较好的一致性 ,可以很好地反映出观测到的冬季和夏季海温的分布形式以及海温的季节变化特征和异常特征。本研究还应用最新的ARGO海洋观测资料 ,通过建立新的热带西太平洋次表层海温参数化方案 ,改进了Zebiak Cane(1987)海洋模式 (ZC模式 ) ,克服了ZC模式几乎没有模拟赤道西太平洋表层和次表层海温变化能力的缺陷。在ZC模式中引用新的次表层海温参数化方案后 ,在赤道西太平洋不仅次表层海温的模拟得到了改善 ,对海面温度异常的模拟也有了较大的改进 ,不仅模拟出了赤道西太平洋表层和次表层海温异常的年际变化特征 ,也模拟出了与观 相似文献
40.