剪切波分裂分析系统SAM(2007)——软件系统

地震各向异性是一种普遍现象,利用剪切波分裂可以研究地壳介质的地震各向异性特性,这是地震学研究中的一个前沿课题。本文介绍了基于SAM(2003R)发展的剪切波分裂系统分析方法软件——SAM(2007)。SAM(2007)在保留原软件系统优点的基础上,修改和发展了新的功能,在资料预处理、数据分析和结果输出等方面都进行了更新或发展,增加了地震定位模块,使新的软件系统更适用于国内的区域地震台网或流动台网资料的处理和分析。     

唐山地震前兆场的分布特征

本文对唐山地震昌黎等七个台的地电阻率日均值时间序列进行了关联维计算．取每年为一个时间段，其目的在于探索分数维对地震各个阶段的反应，以便达到利用分数维进行地震预报的目的。计算结果表明大部分地电台的地电阻率在地震前有明显的降维特征。通过地震前后七个台的地电阻率分数维的变化，得到了地震前后前兆场的分布特征，这一结果对于未来震源区的判定有重要意义。     

陇南山区斜坡重力地质作用特征研究

位于地质构造、地层、地貌、气侯和植被五位一体叠加脆弱带的陇南地区是我国主要滑坡、泥石流、崩塌等斜坡重力地质作用区之一。本文简述了斜坡重力地质作用的概念和类型，着重分析了其垂直分带性、区域性、季节性、周期性、阶段性、继承性和共生性等作用特征，揭示了斜坡重力地质作用的活动规律。     

阶段递进地震预报思路及其应用

首先提供了１９９８年１０月云南宁蒗５．３级地震前所确认的孕震过程和主要前兆异常,以此为例阐述阶段递进的预报思路;这一项预报思路首先根据历史震例中区域应力场的活动轨迹,跟踪其当前加载区域和活动构造,以被加载区域预释放大于２倍均方差及３．０～４．９级地震时空丛集图象认孕震区的存在;以此孕震区为载体思考近源区各种前兆异常的内在相关性,利用发震概率计算模型和各种短临预报指标对发震概率Ｐ进行具体计算,以Ｐ≥     

极隙区粒子和电流的观测和研究

处于高纬向日面的极隙区是太阳风能量、动量和质量可以直接进入地球磁场并到达地球的近地空间的区域。本文简要介绍了极隙区的观测和研究，综述了极隙区的粒子沉降、场向电流、等离子体对流和电离层电流的特征。     

Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by (1) fault locking, (2) self-acceleration or nucleation (possible foreshocks), (3) coseismic slip, and (4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-state-dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive (R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.     

云南彝良“9?7地震”前异常特点

对2012年9月7日云南省昭通市彝良县洛泽河一带5.7、5.6级地震前地震活动和前兆异常分析,其地震活动特征、流体和形变动态变化及预测指标,发现：地震前4级地震活动水平增强、出现小震活动空区;前兆异常开始于震前1年左右;短期异常有由外围向震中迁移的现象;临震异常出现的时间较为集中,震前一周内。对该地区5.0级以上强震的预报和研究具有一定的指示意义。     

Epicenter and magnitude of large earthquake determined from high-rate GPS observations: A case study of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

For earthquake and tsunami early warning and emergency response,the earthquake epicenter and magnitude should be determined rapidly and correctly.Using high-rate GPS observations,we can readily obtain precise and high resolution displacement time series and the seismic waveforms during the earthquake.In this paper,a new algorithm is proposed for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude with the seismic waveforms derived from high-rate GPS data during the earthquake.A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is conducted from 1 Hz GPS data and the epicenter and magnitude are determined.Compared with the results issued by the China Seismological Bureau,the estimation error of the epicenter and the magnitude is about 12 km and 0.1 magnitude unit,respectively.It has shown that high-rate GPS could be a new tool feasible for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude,independent of or combined with seismometers.     

Evolution model and formation mechanism of bio-thermocatalytic transitional zone gas

As a new genetic type of natural gas exploration area, the bio-thermocatalytic transitional zone gas (BTTZG) has been highly stressed by geologists both at home and abroad. Systematic study on the generation mechanism of hydrocarbon at the transitional zone is presented. Based on simulating experiments and geochemistry analysis of the source rock with lower evolution, a hydrocarbon-forming model at the transitional zone has been established. The mechanism is proposed that under the condition of low temperature and pressure combining with extremely active structural stress and clay mineral catalysis, BTTZG is formed by de-group of soluble organic matter and polarized compositions through orthocarbon ion as well as by condensation polymerization of aromatic ring-rich insoluble organic matter. This mechanism controls the formation of BTTZG, and furthermore, BTTZG is the product of superimposition and interaction of all the factors mentioned above.