多维邻近性与城-城流动人口的流入地选择——基于嵌套Logit模型的实证分析

基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用嵌套Logit模型分析了地理、制度、信息和知识等多维邻近性对城-城流动人口流入地选择的影响.结果 表明:城-城流动人口倾向于流入与户籍地地理相邻、制度相似、信息联系密切以及与自身知识水平相匹配的城市,这在一定程度上缓解人口向工资水平高、就业机会多和公共服务水平好的大城市集...     

湄洲湾海域甲藻孢囊的时空分布初步调查

为了解湄洲湾海域表层沉积物中甲藻孢囊的时空分布特征,于2018年5月(春)、8月(夏)、11月(秋)和2019年2月(冬)采集湄洲湾海域7个站位表层沉积物样品,进行甲藻孢囊分析,共鉴定出甲藻孢囊6大类42种和2种未知种。异养型甲藻孢囊种类数和丰度均高于自养型甲藻孢囊,其中又以原多甲藻类孢囊的种类和丰度最高。季节间差异不明显:种类数介于34～38种之间,丰度则在397.8～569.5 cysts/g之间变化,全年平均丰度448.0 cysts/g。工业区附近的站位种类数和丰度均低于养殖区附近的站位和对照点。优势种高达16种,原多甲藻类占绝对优势,但全部优势种优势度均不大。多样性指数、丰富度指数和均匀度指数均较高,全年的平均值分别为3.45、1.55和0.92。与历史资料对比,新发现19种孢囊,但丰度相差不大。另需注意的是,在湄洲湾海域共发现6种有毒甲藻孢囊,虽然全年丰度均不高,但仍有暴发有毒赤潮的危险,需引起重视。     

一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报系统的建立与应用

依据三维斜压海洋环流模式POM建立了一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报业务系统.台风风场模型考虑了台风移动和周围环境风场的影响,采用了较合理的强风情况下的风应力计算公式,建立了稳定合理的模式海洋环流气候状态和模式边界条件.大量的数值模拟结果表明,该模式能较好地重现历史台风风暴增水过程,对近2年台风风暴潮个例的预报结果表明,该业务系统对台风风暴增水具有较好的预报能力,文章同时分析了模式存在的一些问题.该业务系统实现了从资料采集、模式运行到预报结果输出的全自动化,显示采用图片和MICAPS两种方式,后者与现有气象业务平台一致.     

InverMod反演技术在PH油气田的应用

PH油气田A油藏埋深较大,储层薄,利用常规波阻抗反演无法有效区分储层。为了能精细的描述储层,指导开发井的布井方向和井型设计,针对PH油气田A油藏的储层特点,利用Jason软件的InverMod反演技术进行储层预测。InverMod反演（测井属性反演）是一种在地质框架模型控制下,用地震资料作约束,以测井资料为主体的储层反演技术。该技术在PH油气田取得了较好的应用效果,反演结果表明A油藏储层非均质性强、横向变化快,成块状分布。储层预测结果与实钻生产井的钻探情况吻合较好,对井位优化、油藏挖潜都有一定的指导作用。     

基于城乡人口变动视角的中国城镇化地域类型时空演变

城镇化是城镇和乡村人口变动共同作用的结果。本文从城乡人口变动的视角提出了城镇化地域类型的划分方法,基于历次全国人口普查数据,考察了中国城镇化地域类型的时空演变及其影响因素。研究发现中国的城镇化于1990年后进入快速阶段且当前仍在加速,但城镇化的实现路径存在较强的时空动态性：① 随着人口自然增长减缓和乡城迁移扩张,全国城镇化地域类型由城乡扩张型转变为城镇吸引型,乡村人口减少对城镇化的贡献持续增强;② 城镇吸引型是各地最主要的城镇化地域类型,但2010年以来大量地区因乡村人口加速外流而转变为乡村流失型,城乡扩张型地域的空间范围大幅收缩至西藏、上海等地,而城乡收缩型地域在东北地区的非省会城市大范围扩张;③ 经济性因素仍是当前中国城镇化的核心驱动因素,经济增长带动乡村人口外迁,工业化长期有利于城乡协调共进,而公共服务等社会性因素的作用仍然有限;④ 新型城镇化和乡村振兴的政策效应还有待发掘,西部城市群、中小城市的吸引力以及乡村地区的人口发展等问题仍需更多的研究关注。本文最后对中国城镇化的趋势性、动力机制和未来研究重点展开了讨论。     

Suspended sediment balance for the mainstem of Changjiang (Yangtze River) in the period 1964–1985

Suspended sediment dynamics during the period 1964–1985 are examined along the mainstem of Changjiang (Yangtze River). The period represents a basin condition prior to major changes in land management policy and dam building on the river's mainstem. The downstream sediment dynamics reflect basin geology and topography and channel morphology. Sediment exchange within the mainstem was calculated by the development of reach sediment balances that reveal complex temporal and spatial patterns. There is relatively little sediment exchange in the upper, bedrock‐controlled reaches, with systematic increases in the downstream alluvial reaches. Degrading, transfer, and aggrading reaches were identified. Relations between input and output in all reaches were significant but no relation was found between sediment exchange and input/output. Comparison between ‘short‐term’ (22 years) and ‘long‐term’ (52 years) records demonstrates the importance of the record length in studying the suspended sediment dynamics in a large fluvial system. The longer record yielded better correlation and different trends than the shorter record. Sediment transfer (output/input ratio) changes downstream: the dominance of the upstream contributing area in sustaining the appearance of net degradation through most of the river system highlights the importance of reach length on characterisation of suspended sediment dynamics in large fluvial systems. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

REE and Sr-Nd isotope characteristics of hydrothermal chimney at Jade area in the Okinawa Trough

Hydrothermal chimney is a product of hydrothermal activity on the seabed. Chimney samples dredged from Jade hydrothermal area in Izena depression of the Okinawa Trough, are characterized by relatively enriched light rare earth elements (LREE) and strongly positive Eu anomalies. 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd of these samples are exactly between those of seawater and of acidic pumice, averaged at 0.708928 and 0.512292, respectively. These characteristics imply that the main source of hydrothermal sulfide at Jade area is possibly the undersurface acidic rocks. The mineralizing mechanism can be summarized as follows: Large amount of mineralized material would be leached out and LREEenriched hydrothermal solution would be subsequently produced as a result of thermo-chemical exchange reaction between acidic volcanic rocks and heated seawater that penetrated in advance from upper water mass. The spurting out from the seabed and quickly crystallizing in the seawater of hydrothermal solution are responsible for the formation of Cu-Zn sulfide and barite-amorphous SiO2 minerals that are characterized by enriched LREE and positively strong Eu anomalies.     

Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

As one of the most serious natural disasters,many typhoons affect southeastern China every year.Taking Shenzhen,a coastal city in southeast China as an example,we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis.By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration(CMASTI),typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen.We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons.In addition,the Yah Meng(YM)wind field model was introduced,and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed.Using the YM wind field model,extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons.The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.     

旅游小企业成长特征及其影响因素——以宏村为例

借鉴经济学和管理学中企业成长的概念,以宏村为案例地,采用深度访谈和非参与观察等质性研究方法,分析了旅游小企业成长的量和质特征及其影响因素。研究发现:1)宏村旅游小企业经过近40年的发展,总体上是量的增长和质的改善不断优化的过程,实现了其在旅游目的地的可持续成长。2)旅游市场环境、景区管理体制、企业家精神、地方传统文化、企业成长战略和企业竞合互动共同促进了宏村旅游小企业的创办和成长。宏村游客数量的快速增长和旅游需求的提升,旅游公司和地方政府对景区的管理和建设,本地企业主的始创和模仿创新精神,外地企业主的个人特质和改革创新精神,直接或间接地推动着旅游小企业成长;传统的徽商文化、宗族文化和邻里文化等是旅游小企业成长的社会文化支撑,并强化了旅游小企业在成长过程中的稳定性和抵御外界风险的能力;模仿创新、连锁扩张和抱团发展等企业成长战略,促进了旅游小企业的一体化、多元化和联合成长。同时,低层次的产品同质竞争促进了旅游小企业更高层次的质的成长,多群体旅游小企业主之间的合作交流,强化了企业间信息交换、资源共享,极大地推动着旅游小企业成长。     

小麦吸浆虫的发生规律及防治

小麦吸浆虫的发生和温、湿度条件关系密切。平舆县3月中、下旬和4月份的地温适宜成虫活动,4月份降水较多时,很适宜吸浆虫发生。防治措施以麦播期和蛹期防治为主,穗期成虫补治为辅,严把麦播期、孕穗期(蛹期)和抽穗期(成虫期)"三关"防治。