Using species traits to guide conservation actions under climate change

Few assessments of species vulnerability to climate change used to inform conservation management consider the intrinsic traits that shape species’ capacity to respond to climate change. This omission is problematic as it may result in management actions that are not optimised for the long-term persistence of species as climates shift. We present a tool for explicitly linking data on plant species’ life history traits and range characteristics to appropriate management actions that maximise their capacity to respond to climate change. We deliberately target data on easily measured and widely available traits (e.g. dispersal syndrome, height, longevity) and range characteristics (e.g. range size, climatic/soil niche breadth), to allow for rapid comparison across many species. We test this framework on 1237 plants, categorising species on the basis of their potential climate change risk as related to four factors affecting their response capacity: reproduction, movement capability, abiotic niche specialisation and spatial coverage. Based on these four factors, species were allocated risk scores, and these were used to test the hypothesis that the current protection status under national legislation and related management actions capture species response capacity to climate change. Our results indicate that 20% of the plant species analysed (242 species) are likely to have a low capacity to respond to climate change based on the traits assessed, and are therefore at high risk. Of the 242 high risk species, only 10% (24 species) are currently listed for protection under conservation legislation. Importantly, many management plans for these listed species fail to address the capacity of species to respond to climate change with appropriate actions: 70% of approved management plans do not include crucial actions which may improve species’ ability to adapt to climate change. We illustrate how the use of easily attainable traits associated with ecological and evolutionary responses to changing environmental conditions can inform conservation actions for plant species globally.     

克氏原鳌虾气象因子影响研究现状与展望

克氏原螯虾主要养殖在长江中下游地区,目前最主要的养殖模式为虾稻共作模式。大量研究结果表明,克氏原螯虾的生长发育与气象要素密切相关。水温在25-30℃时,克氏原螯虾生长较快;16-25℃水温范围内,温度越高,越有利于雌虾卵巢发育;20-30℃水温范围内,水温越高,受精卵孵化时间越短。光明和黑暗时间之比为16 h∶8 h时,最有利于雌虾性腺发育。与克氏原螯虾养殖有关的气象灾害主要有暴雨洪涝、高温热害、低温冷害。鉴于目前的养殖和气象因子影响研究及服务现状,建议气象部门开展虾-稻种养基地气象观测站网建设,开展气温与水温相关性和水温预报研究,以及气象要素对克氏原螯虾影响的定量化研究。     

黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率的时空演变及影响因素

采用超效率DEA模型、GIS空间分析方法、动态面板的系统GMM估计方法对2010—2017年黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率时空格局及影响因素进行分析,结果表明:①黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率整体由2010年的0.70波动下降为2017年的0.67,且区域内70%以上的城市水资源利用效率变动趋势与其一致;②黄河中下游沿线城市水资源利用效率呈"U"型区域两侧相对较高,中间区域相对较低的空间分布态势,且空间分布重心始终位于地理重心的北方;③环境规制、经济发展水平、产业结构优化、技术水平对水资源利用效率呈显著正向影响,农田水利设施建设、城镇化对水资源利用效率呈显著负向影响。研究结论可为黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的推进提供决策支持。     

Effects of current climate,paleo-climate,and habitat heterogeneity in determining biogeographical patterns of evergreen broad-leaved woody plants in China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Understanding biogeographic patterns and the mechanisms underlying them has been a main issue in macroecology and biogeography, and has implications for...     

Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.     

近百余年上海气温变化的若干特征

本文根据1873—1990年上海的年、冬、夏平均气温资料,并利用1956—1990年其郊区气温资料,对城市热岛效应对气温的影响作了处理,重建了近118a的上海气温序列。在此基础上对上海的气温变化特征进行分析,并与同期的北半球气温变化作了比较。结果表明,上海的气温变化有其明显的阶段性、跃变性和周期性。近百余年上海气温变化的总体特征与北半球相似,呈缓慢变暖趋势,但具体的变化过程和幅度有差别,尤其近20多年来的变化与北半球不一致,没有明显的增温现象。     

黑龙江省与呼伦贝尔盟土地类型的划分及其分布规律

本文就土地研究的几个主要概念,即土地、土地分类、土地分级作了简要讨论,并结合黑龙江省及呼伦贝尔盟的具体条件,对为农、林、牧业服务的土地分类原则进行了初步探讨,还拟订了该区土地分级系统——土地类和土地型,及适合于大比例尺制图的土地组。在此基础上,将全区分为18个土地类、71个土地型。文章还从水平带性、垂直带性和土地结构三个方面,介绍了该区土地类型分布的一般规律。     

上海淤泥质潮滩潮锋作用及其形成机制初步探讨*

本文具体讨论了上海淤泥质潮滩的潮锋作用过程,定性给出了潮锋的形成机制,认为潮锋作用及其水体高含沙量现象的本质在于“潮锋带水体水流加速效应”,即,由于潮滩坡面变化平缓的特殊性,涨潮水体前锋沿程存在着一持续时间可达数十分钟的水流加速过程.最后,本文初步探讨了潮锋作用在滩面塑造过程中的地位,并重新定义了潮锋作用的内容.     

Combining AHP with GIS in synthetic evaluation of environmental suitability for living in China's 35 major cities

There are nearly 700 cities in China, each with their own particular characteristics of natural environment quality and rates of economic development. When people are able to choose a city to live in, they will take into account these characteristics in order to improve their lifestyles. Based on geographic information system technology and the analytic hierarchy process method, a model of the living environment suitability index (LESI) for the larger cities of China was designed. The LESI was constructed by using the factors of economic condition, convenience and livable degree, natural environment and natural resources. The LESI model was then applied to compare the living conditions in 35 major cities in China in 2007, including 30 provincial capitals and 5 sub-provincial cities. LESI values were higher for cities in southeast China than for cities in the northwest. The highest LESI values were mainly distributed along the Chinese southeast coast and the Yangtze River Delta. Cities with the lowest LESI values were found in the centre and north of China. Of the 35 cities, 4 had highly suitable living environments and 7 had unsuitable living environments.