Integration of GIS,AHP and TOPSIS for earthquake hazard analysis

Worldwide, earthquakes and related disasters have persistently had severe negative impacts on human livelihoods and have caused widespread socioeconomic and environmental damage. The severity of these disasters has prompted recognition of the need for comprehensive and effective disaster and emergency management (DEM) efforts, which are required to plan, respond to and develop risk mitigation strategies. In this regard, recently developed methods, known as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), have been widely used in DEM domains by emergency managers to greatly improve the quality of the decision-making process, making it more participatory, explicit, rational and efficient. In this study, MCDA techniques of the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), integrated with GIS, were used to produce earthquake hazard and risk maps for earthquake disaster monitoring and analysis for a case study region of Küçükçekmece in Istanbul, Turkey. The five main criteria that have the strongest influence on the impact of earthquakes on the study region were determined: topography, distance to epicentre, soil classification, liquefaction and fault/focal mechanism. AHP was used to determine the weights of these parameters, which were also used as input into the TOPSIS method and GIS (ESRI ArcGIS) for simulating these outputs to produce earthquake hazard maps. The resulting earthquake hazard maps created by both the AHP and TOPSIS models were compared, showing high correlation and compatibility. To estimate the elements at risk, population and building data were used with the AHP and TOPSIS hazard maps for potential loss assessment; thus, we demonstrated the potential of integrating GIS with AHP and TOPSIS in generating hazard maps for effective earthquake disaster and risk management.     

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

Settlement of Shallow Foundations on Cohesionless Soils Based on SPT Value Using Multi-Objective Feature Selection

Accurate prediction of settlement for shallow footings on cohesionless soil is a complex geotechnical problem due to large uncertainties associated with soil. Prediction of the settlement of shallow footings on cohesionless soil is based on in situ tests as it is difficult to find out the properties of soil in the laboratory and standard penetration test (SPT) is the most often used in situ test. In data driven modelling, it is very difficult to choose the optimal input parameters, which will govern the model efficiency along with a better generalization. Feature subset selection involves minimization of both prediction error and the number of features, which are in general mutual conflicting objectives. In this study, a multi-objective optimization technique is used, where a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA II) is combined with a learning algorithm (neural network) to develop a prediction model based on SPT data based on the Pareto optimal front. Pareto optimal front gives the user freedom to choose a model in terms of accuracy and model complexity. It is also shown how NSGA II can be effectively applied to select the optimal parameters and besides minimizing the error rate. The developed model is compared with existing models in terms of different statistical criteria and found to be more efficient.     

Prediction of Engineering Properties of Basalt Rock in Jordan Using Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity Test

Basalt is an extrusive igneous rock derived from Lava and spread over different localities in Jordan. It can be used in industrial applications, and as construction materials. Before using basalt, it is essential to determine its dry density, porosity, uniaxial compressive strength, and Brazilian tensile strength. The testing procedure and sample preparation used to determine the engineering properties are time-consuming and need expertise. Hence, the ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) test, a quick and non-destructive evaluation method, was used to determine the engineering properties. Empirical relationships for determination of dry density, porosity, uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and tangent modulus of elasticity were deduced. Good correlation coefficients (R²?=?0.832–0.929) were obtained between UPV and dry density, porosity, uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength and modulus of elasticity. These correlations were limited to intact basalt with UPV?≥?4000 m/s.     

Study on the Development Laws of Bed-Separation Under the Hard-Thick Magmatic Rock and its Fracture Disaster-Causing Mechanism

Based on the analysis of dynamic phenomena under the condition of high-located hard-thick (HLHT) stratum of one coal mine, along with the similar material simulation and theoretical analysis, the characteristics of bed separation development and cracks distribution under the HLHT stratum are studied. This paper proposes a discriminating method for overlying strata Three Zones considering the influence of HLHT stratum. The development laws of cracks and disaster-causing mechanism of hard-thick magmatic rock in different strata are respectively analyzed. The studies show that in line with the working face advancing direction, the height of bed separation under the magmatic rock increases in the trend of “Increase–Stability–Decrease”, and the width of bed separation increases linearly. The width of bed separation reaches the maximum before the first breaking of magmatic rock, the bed separation completely closes after the breaking. There are no obvious bed separations during the period migration of magmatic rock. Along the direction of the height of roof, the development of bed separation is characterized by bottom-up jump based on the key strata. The analyzed results of “Three zone” height obtained by the discriminate method of overlying strata Three Zones which is based on the key strata theory and the S–R instability theory are in line with the actual facts. When the hard-thick magmatic rock is in the fractured zone, large amounts of gas and water are easy to accumulate in the bed separation space and “O” ring space around the gob. The first breaking of magmatic rock may induce bed separation gas outburst and water inrush. When the hard-thick magmatic rock is in the sagging zone, the long-term stability of magmatic rock will not cause serious disasters. But with the adjacent working face mining, bed separation gas and water often become a safety hazard.     

Experimental Study on Acoustoelastic Character of Rock Under Uniaxial Compression

This paper made a research about the change rule of elastic wave velocity with stress applied on rock from theoretical and experimental aspect. Firstly, a mathematical model of P-wave velocity and confining pressure of rock was set up from the point of acoustoelastic character. Effect of axial stress on P-wave velocity in granite and sandstone during uniaxial compression process was studied experimentally by using GAW-2000 rock mechanical testing system and RSM-SY5 ultrasonic wave testing system, and the relation curves of axial stress with P-wave velocity were obtained. Based on test data, acoustoelastic theoretical formulas of granite and sandstone were established and the best empirical formulas were fitted by using regression method. Meanwhile, a comparative analysis of the empirical and theoretical calculated values was carried out. Finally, the reliability of applying acoustoelastic theoretical formula in hard rock range was further verified based on the experimental data of granitic gneiss. The results show that the P-wave velocity experiences a rapid increase, gentle increase and then a sharp fall during the uniaxial compression process. The B-value in acoustoelastic theoretical formula (proportion coefficient determined by elastic modulus and third-order elastic constant) decreases exponentially with axial stress. The acoustoelastic theoretical formula can effectively reflect the relationship between rock acoustic velocity and stress within the allowable error, which can be the theoretical foundation of acoustoelastic geo-stress measurement of subsurface rock mass.     

The Derivation and Validation of TBM Disc Cutter Wear Prediction Model

The problem of disc cutter wear is inevitable when shield or TBM excavating hard rock for a long distance, thus, the study of disc cutter wear model has an important project value on predicting its service life and replacement opportunity. It is put forward by analyzing disc cutter wear mechanism that the main wear form is abrasive wear, which is based on plastic removal mechanism. Then, disc cutter wear rate and linear wear rate prediction models are obtained by approximate calculation and mathematical deduction, which are based on Rabinowicz equation and CSM model. At last, the two models are verified through field test data from three projects, and the results show that the prediction model can accurately reflect the real wear situation of disc cutter.     

Seismic Stability of a Tunnel Considering the Dynamic Geologic Parameters of Loess

In this study, Taiyuan loess is used in the analysis of the seismic stability of a loess tunnel. This analysis considers the dynamic parameters of the loess as determined via triaxial compression tests in the literature. In this analysis, the consolidation pressure is converted into the thickness of the overlying loess layer. The spring stiffness and damping coefficients of the viscoelastic boundary are obtained using the maximum dynamic elastic modulus in conjunction with different loess moisture contents and Poisson’s ratios. Additionally, the loess cohesion and internal friction angle are also obtained for different moisture contents. By (1) utilizing the dynamic finite element static shear strength reduction method and the non-convergence rule, (2) taking the safety factor as the assessment standard for loess tunnel stability, and (3) reducing the dynamic parameters of the loess mass until the model calculation is non-convergent, the effects of the moisture content, seismic intensity and loess thickness on the safety factor are obtained. A theoretical basis for the seismic response analysis of this type of loess tunnel is provided by considering the dynamic parameters of loess.     

Model Test on Self-Weight Consolidation of the Red Mud Tailings Placed in the Karsts

The management of tailings depends on its consolidation behavior to great extent. The red mud tailings in Pingguo, Guangxi is of high water content and void ratio. The present paper takes the red mud aluminiferous tailings in Pingguo, Guangxi as prototype. Model tests were carried out to study the consolidation behavior of red mud aluminiferous tailings that were landfilled layer by layer. The layered settlement and the water discharge caused by self-weight consolidation were studied. The influence of the latter landfilled layer of red mud on the previous layer was analyzed. The results show that the settlement at the surface with time can be divided into two stages. During the first stage, a thin layer of water appeared and the thickness kept increasing at the top of the mud surface with the particle of red mud sinking. During the second stage, water drained from the mud and settlement developed slowly. Cracks developed at the surface due to evaporation and the red mud near the surface became unsaturated. When the previous landfilled layer consolidated to the degree that the water content was less than 40%, the later landfilled layer of red mud will have little influence on the settlement of previous landfilled layer.