滑坡危险性评价模型中的量化方式研究——以永嘉县为例

滑坡因子的分段和量化问题非常复杂,相同的滑坡因子在不同条件下对滑坡的贡献会有所不同,甚至完全相反。针对浙江省永嘉县具体滑坡点各个滑坡因子的分布情况,提出滑坡因子量化方案,并应用该方案构建滑坡危险性评价的神经网络模型。通过不同模型的对比分析,认为基于量化方案的支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)神经网络模型的实用性最强,结果最为满意,其滑坡分布的验证正确率达到84.2%。     

平坦地区GPS高程异常拟合方法研究

结合GPS测量和水准测量资料,用BP人工神经网络和RBF人工神经网络方法和二次多项式曲面拟合方法拟合高程异常,对平坦地区GPS高程异常拟合精度进行比较分析,得出有实用价值的结论。     

北京市平原区地下水补给量计算方法对比研究

大气降水入渗是北京市地下水补给的主要来源。为丰富地下水补给量计算方法,以基于遥感数据的水量均衡法对比传统的地下水位动态法评价求取降水入渗量。水位动态法计算北京市平原区2011年地下水垂向入渗补给量为17.39×10~8m~3,遥感水量均衡法计算北京市平原区补给量为13.13×10~8m~3,同面积区两种计算结果相关性R~2=0.9631。两种计算方法各有其优缺点及适用条件。     

Near-surface soil stabilization by enzyme-induced carbonate precipitation for fugitive dust suppression

Acta Geotechnica - To resolve the environmental and sustainability issues from fugitive dust emission and conventional mitigation methods, multiple experiments were conducted to evaluate the...     

对数正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究

安全系数不能考虑边坡系统中实际存在的不确定性,可靠性理论缺乏丰富的工程实践经验,因此,将工程实践经验丰富的安全系数与先进的可靠性理论相结合,建立传统安全系数与可靠性相耦合的二元评价体系具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.设安全系数服从对数正态分布,取系列的最大可能安全系数（中值安全系数）和变异系数,计算得到最大可能安全系数及在不同变异系数下的破坏概率Pfo从而可由最大可能安全系数和可靠性（R=1-Pf）共同度量边坡的稳定性.将最大可能安全系数与边坡可靠性相乘,对最大可能安全系数进行折减,得到边坡可靠的安全系数.根据折减后安全系数的极限状态,可计算出不同最大可能安全系数的临界变异系数和临界破坏概率.根据不同最大可能安全系数及它的临界破坏概率,绘出边坡稳定性分区图,并建立安全系数和破坏概率相结合的边坡稳定性判别的二元指标体系.文中提供了小样本条件下,利用3倍方差原理估计参数方差的计算方法,并给出了边坡稳定性二元指标体系的研究实例.     

Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources in the Belt and Road Regions

“Belt and Road” regions include Asia, Europe and eastern and northern Africa, with a wide spatial distribution. The cryosphere is undergoing rapid changes in the Belt and Road regions with global warming, and has an important impact on water resources, ecosystems and Arctic waterways in these regions. This article reviewed recent cryospheric changes and associated impacts on water resources in the Belt and Road regions during the last decades. The main cognitions are as follows: \mathrm{①} Most glaciers are shrinking and glacier mass balances are most negative, but there are regional differences in the changes of glaciers. \mathrm{②} Global temperature rise has resulted in permafrost degradation, including a rise in permafrost temperature and decreasing permafrost thickness as well as an increase in active layer thickness. \mathrm{③} There is a significant decrease in snow cover extent and an increase in snow depth. Snow cover duration has shortened, the onset of snow cover has delayed, and the end of snow cover has advanced. However, there are still obvious regional differences in the changes of snow cover. \mathrm{④} Arctic sea ice has declined precipitously in both extent and thickness in summer, and multi-year sea ice has decreased,indicating the precipitous retreat of sea ice. The freeze-up date of some lakes has been delayed, the break-up date has advanced, and the ice cover duration of river/lake ice has significantly shortened. \mathrm{⑤} Glacial runoff has increased significantly in China. Snowmelt and permafrost degradation have also increased the basin runoff, which indicates the important impact of cryospheric changes on runoff. This study will provide a baseline and important scientific support for addressing climate change and regional sustainable development.     

中-哈-吉-乌天山变形带容矿金矿床:成矿环境和控矿要素与找矿标志

天山是全球第二大金矿富集区,世界级和大型-超大型金矿床东西成带横贯中国新疆中部—哈萨克斯坦东南部—吉尔吉斯斯坦—乌兹别克斯坦,构成巨型跨境金成矿带。天山巨型跨境金成矿带和重要金矿床形成的地质环境、成矿的控制要素、找矿勘查的标志都是学术界和工业界高度关注的重大地质和找矿问题。通过广泛、深入地文献调研和境内外天山较全面野外地质矿产调查与研究,本文认为中-哈-吉-乌天山大规模金成矿主体形成于晚石炭世—早二叠世古亚洲洋闭合后的陆块拼贴变形过程,部分形成于中—晚二叠世陆内走滑变形过程。中天山南、北缘古缝合带及其附近的大型脆性/韧-脆性变形带是巨量金成矿的关键控制因素,多期叠加复合成矿是天山变形带容矿金矿床的显著特征。地壳初始富集、构造变形活化、岩浆热液叠加是天山变形带容矿金矿床的主控因素。“碳质细碎屑岩+脆韧性变形带+海西末期岩体”是中-哈-吉-乌天山变形带容矿大型-超大型金矿的找矿标志组合。     

淮河流域洪涝灾害时间对称性研究

准确判断重大自然灾害发生趋势对于防灾减灾意义重大.基于时间对称性理论,本文构建“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式,判断了淮河流域(HRB)洪涝灾害发生趋势.结果表明:(1)通过可公度降噪处理去除了噪声元素,提高了预测的精确性;(2)运用三元可公度、蝴蝶结构图、信息结构系等方法判断,2019年HRB发生洪涝灾害的信号较强,该年发生洪涝灾害的随机性概率为66.7%,不漏报置信水平为57.1%;(3)通过洪涝灾害与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析可知,HRB在太阳黑子活动谷年附近易发生洪涝灾害,进一步提高了预测结果的可信度.“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式是对现有时间对称性方法的补充和完善,以期为中国灾害预测起到一定的推动作用.     

A nearly analytic symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta method based on a locally one-dimensional technique for solving two-dimensional acoustic wave equations

In this paper, we develop a new nearly analytic symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta method based on locally one-dimensional technique for numerically solving two-dimensional acoustic wave equations. We first split two-dimensional acoustic wave equation into the local one-dimensional equations and transform each of the split equations into a Hamiltonian system. Then, we use both a nearly analytic discrete operator and a central difference operator to approximate the high-order spatial differential operators, which implies the symmetry of the discretized spatial differential operators, and we employ the partitioned second-order symplectic Runge–Kutta method to numerically solve the resulted semi-discrete Hamiltonian ordinary differential equations, which results in fully discretized scheme is symplectic unlike conventional nearly analytic symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta methods. Theoretical analyses show that the nearly analytic symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta method based on locally one-dimensional technique exhibits great higher stability limits and less numerical dispersion than the nearly analytic symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta method. Numerical experiments are conducted to verify advantages of the nearly analytic symplectic partitioned Runge–Kutta method based on locally one-dimensional technique, such as their computational efficiency, stability, numerical dispersion and long-term calculation capability.     

地震台阵监测能力综述

根据各大网站地震目录和前人研究成果,分析全球地震台网与地震台阵、我国区域台网与地震台阵的监测能力,阐述了地震台阵与密集台网/台阵的区别。研究表明,对同一地区所检测的地震数,地震台阵是地震台网的3-10倍,而震级下限可降低1.2-2级。一般情况下,以微弱信号检测为目的的地震台阵监测能力均优于以结构研究为目的的密集台网/台阵,2种台阵是目的、性质、孔径、形状、台间距、技术手段、研究方法均不同的监测系统。