Trajectories of Moving Objects on a Network: Detection of Similarities,Visualization of Relations,and Classification of Trajectories

Development in techniques of spatial data acquisition enables us to easily record the trajectories of moving objects. Movement of human beings, animals, and birds can be captured by GPS loggers. The obtained data are analyzed by visualization, clustering, and classification to detect patterns frequently or rarely found in trajectories. To extract a wider variety of patterns in analysis, this article proposes a new method for analyzing trajectories on a network space. The method first extracts primary routes as subparts of trajectories. The topological relations among primary routes and trajectories are visualized as both a map and a graph‐based diagram. They permit us to understand the spatial and topological relations among the primary routes and trajectories at both global and local scales. The graph‐based diagram also permits us to classify trajectories. The representativeness of primary routes is evaluated by two numerical measures. The method is applied to the analysis of daily travel behavior of one of the authors. Technical soundness of the method is discussed as well as empirical findings.     

A method for analyzing the expansion and shrinkage of point pattern

This article proposes a new method for analyzing the spatial expansion and shrinkage of point patterns. Spatial expansions of epidemic diseases and market areas are represented as the expansions of point patterns when disease cases and store customers are represented as points. The spatial expansion and shrinkage have been studied in many scientific fields. Existing analytical methods, however, are not sufficient for treating complicated spatiotemporal patterns. To answer this demand, this article develops a new method for analyzing the expansion and shrinkage of points. Three vector measures evaluate the degree and direction of expansion and shrinkage as functions of location and time. They are visualized as vector maps, which are valid for capturing the global spatiotemporal pattern as well as for discussing the local variation. Summary measures of these vectors allow us to grasp the overall spatiotemporal pattern efficiently. To test the validity of the proposed method, this article applies it to the analysis of visitors to Shinjuku and Ginza in Tokyo. The proposed measures permitted us to evaluate the spatiotemporal pattern of the visitors in detail and to consider its underlying structure from various perspectives, which indicated the soundness of the technique.     

Probability of earthquake occurrence estimated from results of rock fracture experiments

The hazard rate, the number of fracture occurrences per unit time, which has been obtained from laboratory experiments of rock fracture, is obtained for the earth's crust by analysing the statistical distribution of geodetically-observed ultimate strain. The associated hazard function has two coefficients, A and B, to be determined. Comparison of the coefficients obtained by the results of rock-fracture experiments with the geodetically determined ones discloses that B is independent of the size-effect. It is therefore concluded that, if A is estimated from the statistics of the geodetically observed ultimate strain and B is obtained from fracture experiments of rock forming a local part of the crust, the probability of a local large-scale earthquake occurrence can be estimated.     

Geology of the Gorny Altai subduction–accretion complex, southern Siberia: Tectonic evolution of an Ediacaran–Cambrian intra-oceanic arc-trench system

The Gorny Altai region in southern Siberia is one of the key areas in reconstructing the tectonic evolution of the western segment of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). This region features various orogenic elements of Late Neoproterozoic–Early Paleozoic age, such as an accretionary complex (AC), high-P/T metamorphic (HP) rocks, and ophiolite (OP), all formed by ancient subduction–accretion processes. This study investigated the detailed geology of the Upper Neoproterozoic to Lower Paleozoic rocks in a traverse between Gorno-Altaisk city and Lake Teletskoy in the northern part of the region, and in the Kurai to Chagan-Uzun area in the southern part. The tectonic units of the studied areas consist of (1) the Ediacaran (=Vendian)–Early Cambrian AC, (2) ca. 630 Ma HP complex, (3) the Ediacaran–Early Cambrian OP complex, (4) the Cryogenian–Cambrian island arc complex, and (5) the Middle Paleozoic fore-arc sedimentary rocks. The AC consists mostly of paleo-atoll limestone and underlying oceanic island basalt with minor amount of chert and serpentinite. The basaltic lavas show petrochemistry similar to modern oceanic plateau basalt. The 630 Ma HP complex records a maximum peak metamorphism at 660 °C and 2.0 GPa that corresponds to 60 km-deep burial in a subduction zone, and exhumation at ca. 570 Ma. The Cryogenian island arc complex includes boninitic rocks that suggest an incipient stage of arc development. The Upper Neoproterozoic–Lower Paleozoic complexes in the Gorno-Altaisk city to Lake Teletskoy and the Kurai to Chagan-Uzun areas are totally involved in a subhorizontal piled-nappe structure, and overprinted by Late Paleozoic strike-slip faulting. The HP complex occurs as a nappe tectonically sandwiched between the non- to weakly metamorphosed AC and the OP complex. These lithologic assemblages and geologic structure newly documented in the Gorny Altai region are essentially similar to those of the circum-Pacific (Miyashiro-type) orogenic belts, such as the Japan Islands in East Asia and the Cordillera in western North America. The Cryogenian boninite-bearing arc volcanism indicates that the initial stage of arc development occurred in a transient setting from a transform zone to an incipient subduction zone. The less abundant of terrigenous clastics from mature continental crust and thick deep-sea chert in the Ediacaran–Early Cambrian AC may suggest that the southern Gorny Altai region evolved in an intra-oceanic arc-trench setting like the modern Mariana arc, rather than along the continental arc of a major continental margin. Based on geological, petrochemical, and geochronological data, we synthesize the Late Neoproterozoic to Early Paleozoic tectonic history of the Gorny Altai region in the western CAOB.     

A method for estimating earthquake occurrence probability using first- and multiple-order Markov chain models

It is valuable in earthquake prediction to determine the occurrence probability of major earthquakes by making use of data obtained from precursory phenomena up to the time of the evaluation. In this study, the time evolution of the state determined by earthquakes and precursory phenomena was modelled using Markov chains. Various probabilities suitable for earthquake prediction were derived from the transition probability of the Markov chain with a chosen length of memory time. As an example, earthquake sequence records for northern China, which covered a period of about two thousand years, were examined and the results were also obtained from modern scientific observations of the radon anomaly which covered a period of about 10 years.Assuming moderate-sized earthquakes of two magnitude ranges 4 3/4 M 5 3/4, 6 M 6 3/4 as precursors to large earthquakes of a magnitude range, 7 M 8 1/2, transition probabilities were calculated for a time interval from 2 to 40 yr. The results showed that the precursory time of moderate-sized earthquakes is mainly distributed in a time span of around several years and that the earthquake occurrence probability is considerably large when the precursory earthquakes occur successively. Furthermore, it was shown that a larger moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 5 3/4) is a more effective precursor than an entire moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 6 3/4).Second, a multiple precursor case was tried by means of simulation based on the radon anomaly data obtained during a limited observation period. Simultaneous occurrence of two precursors makes the earthquake occurrence probability increase by 1.5–2.0 for a reasonable choice of a mean recurrence interval of the radon anomaly compared with the case where only a moderate-sized earthquake was treated as the precursor. However, the probability is much the same if the average recurrence interval of the radon anomaly is the same through time, including the preparatory period before the earthquake.     

Age constraints on the Palaeoproterozoic Lomagundi–Jatuli Event in Zimbabwe: Zircon geochronology of the Magondi Supergroup

The ca. 2.2–2.1 Ga Magondi Supergroup on the Zimbabwe Craton in Southern Africa is mainly composed of sedimentary rocks deposited in a rift basin/passive continental margin, which record a unique episode in carbon isotope perturbation called the Lomagundi–Jatuli Event (LJE). This study reports new U–Pb ages of detrital zircons from the Deweras and Lomagundi groups of the Magondi Supergroup, and of igneous zircons from underlying granitoids, to constrain the timing of the LJE and to identify the provenance of the Magondi Supergroup. Most analysed detrital zircon grains range in ages between ca. 2.9 and 2.6 Ga. Three ca. 2.3–2.2 Ga detrital zircons from sandstone of the Deweras Group, with the youngest ²⁰⁷Pb‐²⁰⁶Pb age of 2,216 ± 22 Ma, indicate the onset of LJE in the Zimbabwe Craton was almost simultaneous to that in Fennoscandia and the Superior Craton, supporting the global synchronicity of the LJE.     

Recent insights into analytical precision and modelling of DDA and NMM for practical problems

This paper discussed the analytical precision on equations of motion in some practical studies that use 2-D DDA, 2D-Coupled analysis of NMM & DDA, and 3D-DDA. We point out the main reason for numerical instability in DDA is loss of the effective digits when superposing the global stiffness matrix under the variable conditions of large and the small blocks. Categories of analyses are distributed in 2D-DDA static masonry structures such as the Great Pyramid and the Pont du Gard, 2D-DDA dynamic rock fall problems and the sensitivity of its analysis on the velocity ratio and the penalty, earthquake response analysis of rock slopes, 2D-NMM, 2D-coupled analysis of DDA and NMM and 3D-DDA rock fall problem. The selected examples on the Great Pyramid, Pont du Gard and Bayon Temple at Angkor Thom are located in Egypt, France and Cambodia respectively as UNESCO world heritages sites. The authors evaluated the applicability of the methods and the reliability of the results by comparing different methods and site observations from the practical problems.     

Tropical Atlantic biases and their relation to surface wind stress and terrestrial precipitation

Most coupled general circulation models (GCMs) perform poorly in the tropical Atlantic in terms of climatological seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The reasons for this poor performance are investigated in a suite of sensitivity experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled GCM. The experiments show that a significant portion of the equatorial SST biases in the model is due to weaker than observed equatorial easterlies during boreal spring. Due to these weak easterlies, the tilt of the equatorial thermocline is reduced, with shoaling in the west and deepening in the east. The erroneously deep thermocline in the east prevents cold tongue formation in the following season despite vigorous upwelling, thus inhibiting the Bjerknes feedback. It is further shown that the surface wind errors are due, in part, to deficient precipitation over equatorial South America and excessive precipitation over equatorial Africa, which already exist in the uncoupled atmospheric GCM. Additional tests indicate that the precipitation biases are highly sensitive to land surface conditions such as albedo and soil moisture. This suggests that improving the representation of land surface processes in GCMs offers a way of improving their performance in the tropical Atlantic. The weaker than observed equatorial easterlies also contribute remotely, via equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves, to the severe warm SST biases along the southwest African coast. However, the strength of the subtropical anticyclone and along-shore winds also play an important role.     

Contrasting two types of orogen in Permo-Triassic Japan: Accretionary versus collisional

Abstract Proto-Japan originated from a continental margin of the Neoproterozoic Yangtze (South China) craton. It represents a unique Permo-Triassic tectonic setting in western Panthalassa, where two distinct types of orogenic belt occurred side by side. There was an accretionary orogen between the Yangtze craton and the Proto-Pacific (Farallon) Plate and a collisional orogen between the Sino-Korean (North China) and Yangtze cratons. This article reviews results of the latest on-land geological studies concerning Permo-Triassic tectonics in Japan and proposes a new plate tectonic interpretation as well as a paleogeographic reconstruction of this particularly unique geotectonic regime. Special emphases are given to (i) the accretion processes and products derived by collision-subduction of the Permian Akiyoshi paleoseamount and Maizuru paleo-oceanic plateau; (ii) the field occurrence of 220-Ma Sangun high-P/T schists and its implication for the exhumation process and 'tectonic sandwich' structure; (iii) the extensive development of a subhorizontal nappe of the pre-Jurassic rocks and their bearing on the orogenic edifice; and (iv) the restricted occurrence of the 250-Ma collision complex in the Hida and Oki belts and the relevant connection to the Precambrian cratons and collision suture in East Asia. The newly proposed paleogeographic reconstruction is also tested by faunal provinciality of Permo-Triassic fossils from shallow-water sediments.