日本地震预警系统在2011年3月11日地震中的效能、不足与改进

自2007年10月以来,成熟的公共紧急地震速报(earthquake early warning,EEW)系统(国内称为地震预警系统)在日本得到应用。2011年日本东北近海(Tohokuoki)地震和海啸(也被称为3·11)发生时,震中附近的几百万人在最严重的振动发生前约15~20s,收到了地震预警(EEW)信息,同时更多周边地区的人在不太严重的振动开始前,有更多的预警时间。这些人中大约90%能够预先采取行动拯救自己及其家庭成员的生命,或根据事先计划采取其他措施,有些行为措施是基于对警报的直观反应。如此高的效率,取决于学校及社会中关于EEW系统知识的教育。尽管EEW系统存在着一些不足,但其有效性促使日本加密现有的地震与海啸监测台网。该台网在日本东部近海岛弧有约150个台站,并提供一个特殊的终端,使EEW系统更进一步应用在超过53 000名学生的学校中。当前对其分析和发布方案的改进也正在进行中。     

Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain

Probability of a large-scale earthquake occurrence is estimated from crustal strain geodetically detected over an earthquake area. The Weibull distribution function, which is widely applied to quality-control research, is made use of in this paper in the probabilistic treatments of crustal strain.Using the table of ultimate strain presented by Rikitake (1974), a Weibull model representing a statistical distribution of crustal-rupture occurrence time is determined on the assumption that the crust is strained with a constant speed. In the case of the South Kanto District, the associated probability-density function has a maximum at about 84 years after the time when the strain energy accumulation starts.     

Interannual variations of the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent induced by potential vorticity variability in the subsurface

Interannual variations of the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent (HLCC) in the 2000s were investigated using satellite and Argo profiling float observations. The satellite-observed sea surface height shows that the geostrophic eastward current was anomalously strong to the west away from Hawaii in 2003 and 2005. However, the trade winds and the orographic wind curl dipole in the lee of Hawaii that drives the climatological mean HLCC were not particularly strong in these years, suggesting that the accelerations of the HLCC were not caused by the wind stress curl forcing around Hawaii and subsequent Rossby wave propagation. Using Argo observations, we found negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the subsurface north of the HLCC in these 2 years. The pycnocline is lifted northward as low PV waters of different densities stack up in the vertical, and the HLCC is then accelerated via the thermal wind. The intensification and/or southward intrusion of the eastern subtropical mode water and subtropical mode water seem to have induced negative PV anomalies in 2003 and 2005, respectively. Using high-resolution ocean simulations, we confirmed the migrations of PV anomalies and their contributions to the HLCC accelerations. Although the HLCC is located away from the cores of major mode waters, our results suggest that interannual variations of the HLCC are affected by those of mode waters.     

Effects of Interannual Variability in the Eastern Indian Ocean on the Indonesian Throughflow

The influences of the large-scale interannual variations in the eastern Indian Ocean on the variability of the Indonesian throughflow are investigated by using an ocean general circulation model, driven by the ERS satellite winds from July 1992 to June 1997. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the simulated surface dynamic height variability captures two dominant modes on an interannual time scale, which are quite consistent with the available observations. The first mode indicates large amplitude in the western tropical Pacific and has a strong relation to the El Niño events, while the second EOF exhibits the large amplitude in the eastern Indian Ocean. The simulated net Indonesian throughflow shows an interannual variation of amplitude of about 15 Sv, with large transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean during 1994/95 and small transport during 1992 and 1997. It turns out that the net throughflow variation shows a high correlation with the second EOF mode (r = 0.51) for the whole five-year simulation. On the other hand, the correlation with the first mode is rather low (r = ?0.07). However, the relative importance of the EOF modes to the throughflow variability changes with time. The upper-layer transport above a depth of 230 m in the Indonesian archipelago is also affected by the second mode. The difference in the upper-layer transport across 1°S and 110°E generates warm water convergence/divergence with a magnitude of 4 Sv within the Indonesian Seas on the interannual time scale, which shows good correspondence with sea surface temperature variation averaged over the Indonesian archipelago.     

Anatomy and genesis of a subduction-related orogen: A new view of geotectonic subdivision and evolution of the Japanese Islands

Abstract The Japanese Islands represent a segment of a 450 million year old subduction-related orogen developed along the western Pacific convergent margin. The geotectonic subdivision of the Japanese Islands is newly revised on the basis of recent progress in the 1980s utilizing microfossil and chronometric mapping methods for ancient accretionary complexes and their high-P/T metamorphic equivalents. This new subdivision is based on accretion tectonics, and it contrasts strikingly with previous schemes based on‘geosyncline’tectonics, continent-continent collision-related tectonics, or terrane tectonics. Most of the geotectonic units in Japan are composed of Late Paleozoic to Cenozoic accretionary complexes and their high-PIT metamorphic equivalents, except for two units representing fragments of Precambrian cratons, which were detached from mainland Asia in the Tertiary. These ancient accretionary complexes are identified using the method of oceanic plate stratigraphy. The Japanese Islands are comprised of 12 geotectonic units, all noted in southwest Japan, five of which have along-arc equivalents in the Ryukyus. Northeast Japan has nine of these 12 geotectonic units, and East Hokkaido has three of these units. Recent field observations have shown that most of the primary geotectonic boundaries are demarcated by low-angle faults, and sometimes modified by secondary vertical normal and/or strike-slip faults. On the basis of these new observations, the tectonic evolution of the Japanese Islands is summarized in the following stages: (i) birth at a rifted Yangtze continental margin at ca 750–700 Ma; (ii) tectonic inversion from passive margin to active margin around 500 Ma; (iii) successive oceanic subduction beginning at 450 Ma and continuing to the present time; and (iv) isolation from mainland Asia by back-arc spreading at ca 20 Ma. In addition, a continent-continent collision occurred between the Yangtze and Sino-Korean cratons at 250 Ma during stage three. Five characteristic features of the 450 Ma subduction-related orogen are newly recognized here: (i) step-wise (not steady-state) growth of ancient accretionary complexes; (ii) subhorizontal piled nappe structure; (iii) tectonically downward-younging polarity; (iv) intermittent exhumation of high-P/T metamorphosed accretionary complex; and (v) microplate-induced modification. These features suggest that the subduction-related orogenic growth in Japan resulted from highly episodic processes. The episodic exhumation of high-P/T units and the formation of associated granitic batholith (i.e. formation of paired metamorphic belts) occurred approximately every 100 million years, and the timing of such orogenic culmination apparently coincides with episodic ridge subduction beneath Asia.     

A model on the mechanism of momentum transfer from turbulent atmosphere to water waves

Interaction between the turbulence and the wave-induced air disturbances is treated by use of the mass and momentum conservation equations and the rapid distortion assumption. Assuming the correlation functions of the velocity derivatives, growth rates of waves are calculated. The growth rate obtained for the reasonable values of parameters shows the agreement with that obtained in the laboratory experiment byKendall (1970) and in the field experiments.