GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Estimation of dynamic friction and movement history of large landslides

We performed seismic waveform inversions and numerical landslide simulations of deep-seated landslides in Japan to understand the dynamic evolution of friction of the landslides. By comparing the forces obtained from a numerical simulation to those resolved from seismic waveform inversion, the coefficient of friction during sliding was well-constrained between 0.3 and 0.4 for landslides with volumes of 2–8 ×10⁶ m³. We obtained similar coefficients of friction for landslides with similar scale and geology, and they are consistent with the empirical relationship between the volume and dynamic coefficient of friction obtained from the past studies. This hybrid method of the numerical simulation and seismic waveform inversion shows the possibility of reproducing or predicting the movement of a large-scale landslide. Our numerical simulation allows us to estimate the velocity distribution for each time step. The maximum velocity at the center of mass is 12–36 m/s and is proportional to the square root of the elevation change at the center of mass of the landslide body, which suggests that they can be estimated from the initial DEMs. About 20% of the total potential energy is transferred to the kinetic energy in our volume range. The combination of the seismic waveform inversion and the numerical simulation helps to obtain the well-constrained dynamic coefficients of friction and velocity distribution during sliding, which will be used in numerical models to estimate the hazard of potential landslides.     

Upwelling of Deep-seated Fluid in the Sikhote-Alin Region,Far East of the Eurasian Plate

Aquatic Geochemistry - Spring waters with high-pCO2 content are widely distributed in the Sikhote-Alin region in Russia. Mukhen spa is one such spring located in the northern Sikhote-Alin region....     

Data‐driven taxonomy matching of asteroid and meteorite

The matching of asteroids and meteorites is a significant step toward a better understanding of the origin, structure, and history of the solar system. We propose a data‐driven approach for investigating common taxonomic structure between asteroids and meteorites; C‐, S‐, and V‐type for the former, and carbonaceous chondrite, ordinary chondrite, and howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) meteorite for the latter. In the numerical experiments, by checking whether the taxonomy information of meteorites improves classification for asteroid data, we examine the existence of common structure over the two domains. For this purpose, we compare the resultant accuracies of two clustering methods which are with/without the guidance of meteorite data. We observe that the guidance of meteorite taxonomy improves the accuracy for classifying asteroids, either with the reflectance spectra or major chemical compositions of meteorites. This fact serves as a piece of evidence that there is a common taxonomic structure and links between meteorites and asteroids, supporting a long‐standing hypothesis.     

Modelling the Shimokita deep coalbed biosphere over deep geological time: Starvation,stimulation, material balance and population models

Basin models can simulate geological, geochemical and geophysical processes and potentially also the deep biosphere, starting from a burial curve, assuming a thermal history and utilizing other experimentally obtained data. Here, we apply basin modelling techniques to model cell abundances within the deep coalbed biosphere off Shimokita Peninsula, Japan, drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 337. Two approaches were used to simulate the deep coalbed biosphere: (a) In the first approach, the deep biosphere was modelled using a material balance approach that treats the deep biosphere as a carbon reservoir, in which fluxes are governed by temperature-controlled metabolic processes that retain carbon via cell-growth and cell-repair and pass it back via cell-damaging reactions. (b) In the second approach, the deep biosphere was modelled as a microbial community with a temperature-controlled growth ratio and carrying capacity (a limit on the size of the deep biosphere) modulated by diagenetic-processes. In all cases, the biosphere in the coalbeds and adjacent habitat are best modelled as a carbon-limited community undergoing starvation because labile sedimentary organic matter is no longer present and petroleum generation is yet to occur. This state of starvation was represented by the conversion of organic carbon to authigenic carbonate and the formation of kerogen. The potential for the biosphere to be stimulated by the generation of carbon-dioxide from the coal during its transition from brown to sub-bituminous coal was evaluated and a net thickness of 20 m of lignite was found sufficient to support an order of magnitude greater number of cells within a low-total organic carbon (TOC) horizon. By comparison, the stimulation of microbial populations in a coalbed or high-TOC horizon would be harder to detect because the increase in population size would be proportionally very small.     

Documentation of shock features in impactites from the Dhala impact structure,India

The fundamental approach for the confirmation of any terrestrial meteorite impact structure is the identification of diagnostic shock metamorphic features, together with the physical and chemical characterization of impactites and target lithologies. However, for many of the approximately 200 confirmed impact structures known on Earth to date, multiple scale‐independent tell‐tale impact signatures have not been recorded. Especially some of the pre‐Paleozoic impact structures reported so far have yielded limited shock diagnostic evidence. The rocks of the Dhala structure in India, a deeply eroded Paleoproterozoic impact structure, exhibit a range of diagnostic shock features, and there is even evidence for traces of the impactor. This study provides a detailed look at shocked samples from the Dhala structure, and the shock metamorphic evidence recorded within them. It also includes a first report of shatter cones that form in the shock pressure range from ~2 to 30 GPa, data on feather features (FFs), crystallographic indexing of planar deformation features, first‐ever electron backscatter diffraction data for ballen quartz, and further analysis of shocked zircon. The discovery of FFs in quartz from a sample of the MCB‐10 drill core (497.50 m depth) provides a comparatively lower estimate of shock pressure (~7–10 GPa), whereas melting of a basement granitoid infers at least 50–60 GPa shock pressure. Thus, the Dhala impactites register a strongly heterogeneous shock pressure distribution between <2 and >60 GPa. The present comprehensive review of impact effects should lay to rest the nonimpact genesis of the Dhala structure proposed by some earlier workers from India.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of seagrass habitat use by fishes at the Ryukyu Islands,Japan

To investigate whether or not regional–temporal patterns of seagrass habitat use by fishes existed at the Ryukyu Islands (southern Japan), visual surveys were conducted in seagrass beds and adjacent coral reefs in northern, central, and southern Ryukyu Islands, in November 2004, and May, August, and November 2005, the northern region having less extensive seagrass beds compared with the central and southern regions. During the study period, the seagrass beds were utilized primarily by 31 species, the densities of some of the latter differing significantly among regions. With the exception of Apogonidae and Holocentridae, all species were diurnal and could be divided into 6 groups based on seagrass habitat use patterns; (1) permanent residents A (10 species, e.g. Stethojulis strigiventer), juveniles and adults living in seagrass beds as well as other habitats; (2) permanent residents B (5 species, e.g. Calotomus spinidens), juveniles and adults living only or mainly in seagrass beds; (3) seasonal residents A (4 species, e.g. Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus), juveniles living in seagrass beds as well as other habitats; (4) seasonal residents B (6 species, e.g. Lethrinus atkinsoni), juveniles living only or mainly in seagrass beds; (5) transients (5 species, e.g. Parupeneus indicus), occurring in seagrass beds in the course of foraging over a variety of habitats; and (6) casual species (1 species, Acanthurus blochii), occurring only occasionally in seagrass beds. Regarding temporal differences, juvenile densities in each group were high in May and August compared with November in each region, whereas adult densities did not differ drastically in each month. For regional differences, juvenile and adult densities of permanent residents A and B were higher in the southern and central regions than in the northern region. Moreover, some seasonal residents showed possible ontogenetic habitat shift from seagrass beds to coral reefs in each region. These results indicated that seagrass habitat use patterns by fishes changed temporally and regionally and there may be habitat connectivity between seagrass beds and coral reefs via ontogenetic migration in the Ryukyu Islands.     

Variations of Kuroshio geostrophic transport south of Japan estimated from long-term IES observations

Two inverted echo sounders were maintained on coastal and offshore sides of the Kuroshio south of Japan from October 1993 to July 2004. Applying the gravest empirical mode method, we obtained a time series of geostrophic transport. Estimated transports generally agree well with geostrophic transports estimated from hydrography. Their agreement with the hydrographic transports is better than that of transports estimated from satellite altimetry data. The geostrophic transport is expressed as the surface transport per unit depth multiplied by the equivalent depth. The geostrophic transport varies mostly with the surface transport and fractionally with the equivalent depth. Seasonal variation of the geostrophic transport has a minimum in March and a maximum in September, with a range of about one fifth of the total transport.