考虑径流成分的雅鲁藏布江月径流模拟

通过构建雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型SWAT,并以1989~1998年为率定期,1999~2005年为验证期对3个水文站(奴各沙、羊村、奴下)的月径流进行了模拟。从模型参数组里选取径流成分模拟不同的2组参数,以Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)、相关系数(R~2)及相对误差(PBIAS)为评价指标,来分析模型的模拟结果好坏。结果表明:率定期内,在径流成分1下奴各沙、羊村站和奴下站的R~2值高达0.9以上,NS系数分别为0.9、0.92和0.72,PBIAS的值为7.1%、18.5%及34.2%,但径流成分与实际情况出入较大。而径流成分2下,模拟得到的评价指标虽然不是很高,但径流成分比较合理。验证期总体结论一致。因此,建议在模型率定验证中要充分考虑径流成分的作用,从而提高模型模拟的精度。     

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云南地区现今地壳水平运动与变形特征

利用云南地区 1999、2 0 0 0、2 0 0 1年共 10 0余个测站的GPS资料 ,获得了该区现今水平运动与形变的特征图像。研究结果认为 :①根据变形与运动特征 ,云南地区可划分为 4个运动单元 ,即滇西地区、滇东地区、滇中东北地区和滇中西南地区 ;剔除整体运动后 ,它们的优势水平运动分别为 :滇西地区以 5 .2± 0 .6mm/a向W 31°N运动 ,滇东地区以 4 .8± 1.8mm/a向E2 6°N运动 ,滇中东北地区以 5 .2± 0 .6mm/a向S4 4°E运动 ,滇中西南地区则基本不动。②相邻单元的平均差异运动分别为 :滇西地区相对滇中东北地区的运动为 10 .9± 1.1mm/a ,方向为W 39°N(张性右旋 ) ,相对滇中西南地区的运动为 5 .3± 1.3mm/a ,方向为W 4 1°N(右旋 ) ;滇中东北地区相对滇中西南地区的运动为 5 .6± 1.6mm/a ,方向为E36°S(左旋 ) ;滇东地区相对滇中东北地区的运动为 6 .2± 1.6mm/a ,方向为N3°E(左旋 )。③从断裂走滑活动看 ,红河断裂两侧的差异运动并不是由红河断裂的活动所形成的 ,而是在很广阔的空间上自西向东渐变而成的 ,跨距达数百km ;小江断裂两侧的差异运动也非完全是小江断裂本身的活动 ,差异运动的渐变空间至少在 6 0km以上。④云南地区的地壳运动方式可能是“断块活动”和“连续变形”的组合 ,或许“连续变形”     

一种珠江口深度基准面格网模型的建立

针对珠江口现阶段陆海高程基准不统一的事实以及由此产生的海岸带陆海数字成果无法拼接的问题,详细介绍了基于国家高程基准建立珠江口深度基准面格网模型的技术流程及构建方法。通过项目实施获取的实测数据对模型进行精度检验与方法比较,确立采用克里金内插法建立珠江口深度基准面格网模型。最后对模型的具体应用进行了阐述与展望。     

Integration of multi-parametric fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and GIS along the UNESCO World Heritage: a flood hazard index,Mombasa County,Kenya

Natural Hazards - Flood is a natural hazard affecting human life and ecosystem globally causing catastrophic disasters. Most flood-induced socioeconomic losses are exacerbated by unabated urban...     

Experimental modeling of tsunamis generated by subaerial landslides: two case studies of the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

After the Gongjiafang tsunami incident, the China Geological Survey recognized the extreme importance of subaerial landslide-generated tsunamis (SLGT) in the Three Gorges Reservoir, western China. The experimental models presented in the present paper were rooted in two common failure types of high, steep slopes in the Three Gorges Reservoir. One model represents a rigid rock plunging into the water and the other is a granular cluster sliding into the water. A wide range of effective parameters were considered and studied by performing 74 laboratory tests. The effects of bed slope angle, water depth, slide impact velocity, geometry (three-dimensional size of the rigid block and grain size of the granular cluster), and volume on impulse wave characteristics were examined. Slide kinematics and impulsive wave features, such as wave shape, amplitude, run-up, and run-down, were studied and compared. Experiments showed that the failure type of the rock mass plays a key role in SLGT and strongly influences air–fluid–solid interaction. Thus, to forecast SLGT rapidly, the zone of complicated air–solid–fluid interaction can be treated as a “black box” whose output is a water wave with definable characteristics, such as amplitude. Based on the experimental results, two dimensionless equations for the estimation of primary wave maximum amplitude were developed and successfully verified for the two failure types. The study provides basic information needed to forecast tsunamis generated by slopes with the potential to fail in other reservoirs around the world. These data can also be a very useful resource for theoretical analysis or numerical model validation.     

Vertical acceleration effect on landsides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 triggered extensive throwing-pattern landslides in the area within or near the seismic faults. The resultant landslides from this earthquake brought to the fore the effect of vertical earthquake acceleration on landslide occurrence. The pseudostatic analysis and the dynamic response on landslide stability due to the Wenchuan earthquake are studied with the Chengxi (West Town) catastrophic landslide used as a case study. The results show that the epicenter distance is an important factor which affects the vertical acceleration and thus the stability of landslide. Also, the vertical acceleration was found to have a significant impact on the FOS of landslide if the earthquake magnitude is quite large. Within the seismic fault, the amplitude effect of vertical acceleration is very dominant with the FOS of landslide, for vertical acceleration ranging from positive to negative, having a variation of 25 %. The variation of FOS of landslide for vertical acceleration ranging from positive to negative are 15 and 5 % for landslides near seismic fault and outside seismic fault, respectively. For landslide with a slope angle <45°, the FOS of landslide with both horizontal and vertical accelerations is significantly greater than the one without vertical acceleration. Further, the results computed from both the pseudostatic method and dynamic analysis reveal that the FOS during the earthquake varied significantly whether vertical acceleration is considered or not. The results from this study explain why lots of throwing-pattern catastrophic landslides occurred within 10 km of the seismic fault in the Wenchuan earthquake.     

HadCM3模式下钱塘江流域设计暴雨估算

全球气候变化背景下,极端水文气象事件发生的频率和强度都受到了直接影响,研究气候变化对极端水文气象事件的影响对防灾减灾和工程设计等至关重要.采用了联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告中给出的A1B、A2和B1三种温室气体排放情景,选用大气环流模式Had-CM3,利用随机天气发生器LARS-WG生成逐日气象资料,结合P-Ⅲ型曲线和线性矩方法分析计算了钱塘江流域21世纪中叶的设计暴雨情况.结果表明:LARS-WG天气发生器在钱塘江流域有较好的模拟效果;在A1B和B1情景下,钱塘江流域各站点不同重现期下的设计暴雨值基本呈增大趋势,其中A1B情景下杭州站百年一遇的设计暴雨值为209.14mm,比基准期增大11.0％.     

汶川Ms8.0地震北川附近同震和震后垂直位移特征

利用北川附近震前水准数据,以及2008年和2010年两条一等水准数据,得到了北川附近同震和震后垂直位移量,获得如下结果:北川附近的北川—映秀断裂的同震垂直位移量为4.711 m,断层上下盘最大位错量为5.1m,然而,位于平武县境内的青川断裂同震位错仅有0.064m.2008-2010年,汶川Ms8.0地震后北川附近的北...