商圈惠顾行为的空间衰减：幂律模式还是指数模式

以上海市商业中心为例,基于匿名手机信令数据,运用引力模型对商圈惠顾行为的衰减模式及其系数进行了验证与对比。结果表明,① 对于商圈惠顾行为,最常用的2种距离衰减函数均具有较高的拟合优度,幂律函数稍优于指数函数;② 总体来看,距离仍是影响城市居民商圈惠顾行为的关键因素,距离衰减效应呈现出随商业中心等级增大而减弱的梯度特征,幂律型衰减系数取值1~3不等,采用既定系数1或2会过高/低估计商圈辐射能力;③ 不可忽视闲暇时间对商圈惠顾行为的约束作用,与周末相比,工作日的距离衰减系数较大,且商业中心等级越低,商圈惠顾行为的衰减性越显著。     

Climate change and multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization

Global large-scale urbanization and climate change have become indisputable scientific facts yet are unresolved issues, and are a common concern for mankind. The relationship between these two topics is unclear and it is not known how to deal appropriately at the scientific level with climate change in the process of urbanization. Further exploration of the science, management and practice, are needed to achieve global and regional sustainadevelopment. This paper first considers the basic facts concerning mass urbanization and climate change and summarizes the interactions and possible mechanisms of urbanization and climate change. Urbanization leads to the heat island effect, an uneven distribution of precipitation and extreme weather, together with a local-regional-global multi-scale superposition effect, which aggravates the consequences of global climate change. The impact of climate change on urbanization is mainly manifested in aspects such as changes of energy consumption, mortality, and the spread of infectious diseases, sea level rise, extreme weather damage to infrastructure, and water shortages. This paper also briefly reviews relevant international research programs and action coalitions and puts forward an analysis framework multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization which can adapt to and mitigate climate change, from the perspective of the four key dimensions—population, land use, economy, and society. It is imperative that we strengthen the interdisciplinary activities involving the natural and social sciences, take urbanization and other human activities into consideration of the land-atmosphere system, and explore the human-land-atmosphere coupling process. The adaptation and mitigation from the perspective of human activities, as represented by urbanization, might be the most critical and realistic way to deal with climate change.     

基于城市流和层级性的城市群扩展模型构建

城市群是具有网络关系与层级性的区域空间,一直是中国推进城镇化与区域协调发展的主体单元。本文综合考虑城市群的网络与层级性特征,运用城市流刻画城际网络交互作用,采用分层广义线性模型（HGLM）揭示城市群分层驱动机制。同时,选取长江中游城市群开展实证研究,通过与元胞自动机（CA）耦合,构建HGLM-CA模型模拟城市群空间扩展。将模拟结果与Logistic-CA模型、BBO-CA模型进行比对,据此评析HGLM-CA模型的优劣与改进方向。实证结果表明：城市群空间扩展是多层驱动因素共同作用的结果,城市流不仅会推动城市群空间扩展,而且对元胞层因素起到重要的调节作用,使之具有城际分异性;HGLM-CA模型相比Logistic-CA模型模拟精度更高,说明顾及城市流与层级性的城市群空间扩展模拟结果更为精准;与智能模型BBO-CA相比,HGLM-CA模型模拟精度较低,但其便于从层级性角度把握城市群空间扩展机制。     

川北青川地区下寒武统沥青质砾石的发现及其意义

沥青质砾石被发现于四川省青川县白家镇一带的下寒武统碎屑岩中。黑色的沥青质砾石多呈次圆状或次棱角状,表面光滑但无光泽,与胶结物之间有明显的界线,直径最大可达5cm。推测这些砾石可能来自于被剥蚀的震旦系灯影组。沥青、碳酸盐岩和页岩以砾石的方式沉积于下寒武统．表明在早寒武世筇竹寺期之前川北青川地区已存在有古油藏,前寒武系中可能还有生烃的烃源岩。     

构造地貌－认识高原历史的钥匙

简要评述了构造地貌的研究,并以青藏高原西北缘克里雅河流域地貌演化说明了构造变形与青藏高原的形成历史。以西域砾岩顶部的玄武岩作为区域构造地貌的标志,获得的高质量Ar-Ar年龄的加权平均值为1.09 Ma ±0.13Ma。该年龄不仅代表了西域砾岩沉积结束的时间,并制约了区域风沙堆积时代的下限,是一个重要的气候环境变化的转折点。更重要的是,该年龄标志了克里雅河演化的开始,即目前可观察的克里雅河的历史不过1.1Ma。另外获得的系统、丰富、翔实的沉积学、构造地质学、低温热年代数据和克里雅河流域地貌的测量结果还揭示了上新世晚期以来区域强烈的变形与构造地貌的演化。获得的重要结论还包括：能够分析恢复的前克里雅河的历史不超过西域砾岩沉积期,能够推测的青藏高原西北缘河流体系演化的最老历史不超过上新世阿图什组沉积期。在中新世乌恰组沉积时,基本观察不到青藏高原现今地貌体系产生的沉积作用的记录,而是更老的前青藏高原构造地貌格架对沉积体系产生的影响。青藏高原的主体可能在中更新世早期前后才抬升进入冰冻圈。现今的克里雅河地貌主要是在区域构造抬升中由冰川融水侵蚀形成的。克里雅河源头可能残留了青藏高原演化的关键记录。     

Sedimentation Geochemistry and Environmental Changes during the Late Pleistocene of Paleolake Qarhan in the Qaidam Basin

On the basis of the analyses of TOC, CaCO3, δ13Corg, δ18O, and δ13C of the shell bar section in the Qaidam basin, and compared with grain size data, the environmental change history of the high water level of paleolake Qarhan was reconstructed and it could be divided into five stages. From 39.7 to 35.8 kaBP was the development period of high paleolake level. From 35.8 to 33.6 kaBP and 33.6 to 27.2 kaBP, TOC and CaCO3 contents and δ18O values were high, whereas, δ13Corg values and median size content were low, reflecting a warm-humid climate and high lake level. During 27.2-22.3 kaBP and 22.3-17.5 kaBP, both temperature and the lake level were lower than those in the previous stages, but the climate was still warmer and more humid than that of today. The lake level decreased between 32.4 and 32.2 kaBP, 30.4 and 29.8 kaBP, and 28.4 and 27.2 kaBP. Generally, the climate was warm and humid in Qaidam basin and the high lake level sustained between 39.7 and 17.5 kaBP. The lake retreated abruptly at 17.5 kaBP, with a very strong increase in evaporation, which resulted in salt formation and the extinction of Corbicula.     

科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险评价

基于气象、土地利用类型与植被覆盖指数等数据,采用层次分析法与加权综合评分法评价了科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险。结果表明：1995、2000、2010年科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险指数平均值分别为0.420、0.428、0.437,16年来科尔沁沙地沙漠化处于高度风险水平。科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险等级在空间分布上表现为北部与西部沙漠化风险等级低,南部与东部为沙漠化高风险区。1995-2010年科尔沁沙地各旗县沙漠化风险等级存在差异,开鲁县的沙漠化风险由高度风险转变为极高度风险等级,扎鲁特旗的沙漠化风险由中度风险转变为低度风险等级,敖汉旗、巴林右旗、科尔沁区与科尔沁左翼中旗的沙漠化风险等级波动变化,其余旗县的沙漠化风险等级未变化。1995-2010年科尔沁沙地沙漠化中度,高度风险等级的面积分别减少了16 544.76、4 223.25 km²,低度,极高度风险等级的面积分别增加了16 544.76、4 223.25 km²。区域沙漠化风险的主要影响因素为年降水量、年均风速、植被覆盖指数、沙漠化土地面积与载畜量,植被覆盖指数增加有助于区域沙漠化风险的降低。     

对加强基层局站自我发展能力工作的几点体会

作者曾在内蒙古巴彦淖尔市杭锦后旗气象局工作5年。2009年5月到区局挂职学习,现已卸任并调离了杭锦后旗气象局。现在回过头来反观在杭锦后旗气象局的工作,总结了一些成功的经验。这已得到了巴市气象局党组的肯定和单位职工的认可,也得到了当地政府的充分肯定。当然,还有一些不成熟和做的不到位的地方,也值得反思。在基层工作的几点体会,总结归纳如下,供在基层工作的同志参考。     

基于ArcEngine与C#的生态信息图谱的工具集开发

以Visual Studio 2008 C#和ArcGIS Engine为开发环境,将海峡西岸城市群作为案例,利用ArcEngine的嵌入式GIS组件,建立海峡西岸生态信息图谱的工具集应用系统,从而实现对海西生态环境系统特征的提取、分类、处理、分析和辅助决策等功能。通过建立图谱化工具集对生态信息的高度抽象和概括,更加突出、简要和直观地反映出生态环境影响要素的变化情况,并能够很好的展示区域动态发展趋势,以便更好地预测区域未来的发展状况,为建设决策者提供强有力的决策依据和技术支持。     

An Adaptive Method of High Accuracy Surface Modeling and Its Application to Simulating Elevation Surfaces

An adaptive method is employed to speed up computation of high accuracy surface modeling (HASM), for which an error indicator and an error estimator are developed. Root mean‐square error (RMSE) is used as the error estimator that is formulated as a function of gully density and grid cell size. The error indicator is developed on the basis of error surfaces for different spatial resolutions, which are interpolated in terms of the absolute errors calculated at sampled points while paying attention to the landform characteristics. The error surfaces indicate the magnitude and distribution of errors in each step of adaptive refinement and make spatial changes to the errors in the simulation process visualized. The adaptive method of high accuracy surface modeling (HASM‐AM) is applied to simulating elevation surface of the Dong‐Zhi tableland with 27.24 million pixels at a spatial resolution of 10 m × 10 m. Test results show that HASM‐AM has greatly speeded up computation by avoiding unnecessary calculations and saving memory. In addition, HASM‐AM improves simulation accuracy.