Sub-Recent Sexual Populations of Limnocythere inopinata Recorded for the First Time from > 3500 m Altitude on the Tibetan Plateau

<正>The central and northwestern Tibetan Plateau region,also called"Qiangtang Plateau"(30°27'25"-35°39'13"N,83o41'14"-95°10'46"E),is the highest and largest arcticalpine area of the Earth covering approximately 600,000km~2 with altitude ranging from 4600 to 5100 m a.s.l.(Song et al.,2012,Fig.1).Ostracod species of     

Cenozoic Tectonic Evolution of the Arcuate Structures in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau

<正>The northeast Tibetan plateau contains important information on the northeastward growth of the Tibetan plateau.It is bounded by the Ordos Block to the east,the Alxa Block to the north,and the Tibetan Plateau to thesouth(inset in Fig.1;Tapponnier et al.,2001),and has undergone complex intracontinental deformation during the Cenozoic.In this region,the northeast-convex arcuate structures developed northeastward,and are composed of     

全球海洋人为碳储量估算及时空分布研究进展

海洋是全球最大的碳汇,确定海洋中人为碳含量及其时空变化是一件具有挑战性的工作。就当前海洋人为碳含量确定方法、人为碳储量及其随时间变化进行综述总结。研究表明海洋仍然可以吸收并储藏大量的人为碳,但未来对于海洋吸收储藏人为碳的研究仍具有诸多不确定性。已有证据表明稳态海洋的概念不完全正确,需要在非稳态条件下重新定义人为碳并开展研究。同时需要积累更多的观测数据,采用包括观测和模式模拟等手段来研究不同时间尺度的人为碳的吸收和储藏过程。     

沈阳地铁盾构法施工的三维数值模拟研究

以沈阳地铁一号线重工街站至启工街站区间土压平衡盾构法施工为研究对象,利用FLAC3D软件对隧道工程进行三维模拟,对施工前后地表、围岩及支护结构的应力应变进行了分析,得出了地表沉降及支护结构应力变化的规律。结果表明,基于FLAC3D的盾构法开挖过程数值模拟结果直观、可靠,为盾构技术在沈阳地铁工程中的应用提供经验和依据。     

促进我国大洋矿产资源商业化开发的思考

自1991年以来,我国大洋矿产资源开发事业取得了长足进步,包括大洋资源调查、技术装备研发、国际事务方面等。然而,与西方发达国家相比,我国大洋矿产资源开发事业仍存在较大差距,调查装备质量、标准化和国产化水平均仍较低,深海采矿、冶炼技术较为落后,商业化开发步伐远落后于发达国家。在西方国家广泛开展深海矿产开发技术研发的情况下,我国应加强深海矿产商业化开采的顶层设计研究,深化深海调查采矿冶炼技术研发,推动技术设备通用化和标准化。     

Preliminary Calibration of GPS Signals and Its Effects on Soil Moisture Estimation

In recent years, Global Navigation Satellite Systems Reflectometry (GNSS-R) is developed to estimate soil moisture content (SMC) as a new remote sensing tool. Signal error of Global Positioning System (GPS) bistatic radar is an important factor that affects the accuracy of SMC estimation. In this paper, two methods of GPS signal calibration involving both the direct and reflected signals are introduced, and a detailed explanation of the theoretical basis for such methods is given. An improved SMC estimation model utilizing calibrated GPS L-band signals is proposed, and the estimation accuracy is validated using the airborne GPS data from the Soil Moisture Experiment in 2002 (SMEX02). We choose 21 sites with soybean and corn in the Walnut Creek region of the US for validation. The sites are divided into three categories according to their vegetation cover: bare soil, mid-vegetation cover (Mid-Veg), and high-vegetation cover (High-Veg). The accuracy of SMC estimation is 11.17% for bare soil and 8.12% for Mid-Veg sites, much better than that of the traditional model. For High-Veg sites, the effect of signal attenuation due to vegetation cover is preliminarily taken into consideration and a linear model related to Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) is adopted to obtain a factor for rectifying the "over-calibration", and the error for High-Veg sites is finally reduced to 3.81%.     

Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.