宁洱6.4级地震灾情信息特征分析

选取2007年宁洱6.4级地震发生后一周内政府收集和上报的灾情档案资料中的人员伤亡和财产损失两类主要信息为基础资料,对该次地震的灾情信息特征进行初步分析.结果表明:灾情信息来源的主体为县级政府部门,描述方式以定量为主.在地震发生后4h内以定性描述为主,4～12h期间定性描述与定量描述都有,12 h后以定量描述为主;单位时间内灾情信息获知和上报的数量随时间的推移先逐渐增加,到达峰值后逐渐减少,最后趋于平稳;从信息随时间变化情况来看,最先掌握死亡人员数量,接着是重伤人员数量,最后是受伤人员数量;与地震灾害直接经济损失评估结果比较,房屋损失信息更直接地反应本次地震损失.     

一次台风大暴雨成因及落区分析

对2007年9月19日到20日一次台风暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,利用模式输出资料具体分析了本次台风登陆减弱后的低压结构特征和大暴雨落区。结果表明:流场上高空辐散低空辐合特征明显,台风右侧来自海洋的低空潮湿偏南气流向中纬度槽前和台风倒槽前部输送的大量水汽在鲁东南东部和山东半岛南部辐合,形成强降水区;台风中心风速较小,和东部海上强风速中心形成明显"风速偶",降水区主要发生在中、低层"风速偶"之间的强风速梯度中。由于下垫面分为海上和陆上两部分,台风低压物理量场结构存在东西不对称性质,上升运动更加强烈,降水强度更大。降水的增幅与高空东南急流及高空正涡度中心和负散度中心的明显脉动下传有关系。     

国家级强对流天气综合业务支撑体系建设

国家级强对流天气预报业务正在从以短期预报为主调整到短期和短时预报并重的业务格局。文章从强对流天气预报技术发展与服务需求的角度,重点介绍了国家级强对流天气综合业务支撑平台及其核心技术。该平台以气象数据组织和图形化表达两个核心要求为牵引,发展了数据分析处理系统、自动气象绘图系统和WEB检索与显示系统。数据分析处理系统基于多源观测资料、中尺度数值预报和全球数值预报,发展了集约、高效的强对流天气监测和临近预报、短时预报和短期预报等数据分析处理技术,是整个平台的核心;主要核心技术包括:从不稳定与能量、水汽、抬升与垂直风切变等条件出发,以归纳总结的分类强对流天气概念模型为基础的分类强对流短期预报分析技术;应用"配料法"发展的分类分等级的强对流天气客观概率预报技术;强对流短时预报技术包括高分辨率数值预报释用、多模式预报集成、对流尺度分析、实况和模式探空分析等多项技术,重点实现了从过去3 h实况到未来12 h预报的无缝隙衔接;强对流的监测和临近预报技术在基于多源资料的强对流天气实况与强对流系统监测技术基础上,发展了基于雷达特征量、强对流实况、各类强对流指数和预警信号等多源信息的报警技术。自动气象绘图系统实现了高效、便捷地接入多种数据、自动进行数据分析和制图等多项功能。在预报服务方面,基于WebGIS发展了县级分类强对流预警信号和国家级分类强对流预警预报产品共享技术,实现强对流短时预报业务的高交互性与上下互通的功能。     

2012年两次台风造成黑龙江省大范围暴雨的成因对比分析

用常规观测资料和红外卫星云图资料对2012年台风"布拉万"和"三巴"登陆后变性北上给黑龙江省造成大范围暴雨天气过程成因进行了对比分析。结果表明台风"布拉万"、"三巴"受不同大气环流背景影响导致台风北上的路径不同;登陆北上后与冷空气结合形成不同的温压场结构、垂直上升运动大值区及云系导致降水落区和强度的不同。     

Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry

Climate change caused by carbon emissions continuously threatens sustainable development. Due to China’s immense territory, there are remarkable regional differences in carbon emissions. The construction industry, which has strong internal industrial differences, further leads to carbon emission disparity in China. Policymakers should consider spatial effects and attempt to eliminate carbon emission inequality to promote the sustainable development of the construction industry and realize emission reduction targets. Based on the classic Markov chain and spatial Markov chain, this paper investigates the club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of China’s carbon intensity in the construction industry from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the provincial carbon intensity in the construction industry is characterized by “convergence clubs” during the research period, and very low-level and very high-level convergence clubs have strong stability. Moreover, the carbon intensity class transitions of provinces tend to be consistent with that of their neighbors. Furthermore, the transition of carbon intensity types is highly influenced by their regional backgrounds. The provinces with high carbon emissions have a negative influence on their neighbors, whereas the provinces with low carbon emissions have a positive influence. These analyses provide a spatial interpretation to the “club convergence” of carbon intensity.     

Arcanite from Fumarole Exhalations of the Tolbachik Volcano (Kamchatka,Russia) and Its Crystal Structure

The crystal structure (R = 0.0194) of arcanite β-K₂SO₄ was studied on a single crystal from exhalations of the Arsenatnaya fumarole, Tolbachik Volcano (Kamchatka, Russia). The mineral crystallizes at a temperature of ≥350–430°C and associates with langbeinite, aphthitalite, hematite, tenorite, johillerite, and others. Arcanite is orthorhombic, Pnma, a = 7.4763(2) Å, b = 5.77262(16) Å, c = 10.0630(3) Å, V = 434.30(2) ų, Z = 4. Its structure contains isolated SO₄ tetrahedra, whereas K cations center ten- and nine-fold polyhedra.     

清水沟流路期间黄河三角洲区潮波运动的模拟和预测

为了探讨黄河三角洲附近潮波运动的变化特征，乐肯堂等(1995)用二维数值模式模拟了1855-1984年该海区的潮汐和潮流的分布变化，并着重考察了M2和S2分潮的无潮点，以及规则全日潮区的位置变化。乐肯堂等(1995)的研究表明，黄河尾闾的摆动以及由此而造成的黄河三角洲之进退，是该海区潮波特征发生变化的主要外因。自从1976年黄河尾闾改道清水沟以来，该流路已稳定运行了20多年，由此造成了河口附近沙嘴不断向莱州湾内延伸，因而对该区的潮波分布特征产生了显著影响。从黄河三角洲区的经济可持续发展和海洋生态环境的可持续发展的目的出发来规划今后黄河尾闾的走向，就必须对以下两个问题进行深入研究：(1)清水沟流路是否还能长期稳定下去；(2)如果清水沟流路长期稳定不变，并且按照清水沟流路期间黄河三角洲向莱州湾推进的方式来推演10a后黄河三角洲的形势，那么到2010年该区的潮波运动将会发生什么变化。为此，在本文中我们仍然采用乐肯堂等(1995)已经过验证的数值模式和数值预的方法对上述问题作初步探讨。     

SHRIMP zircon dating and Nd isotopic systematics of Palaeoproterozoic migmatitic orthogneisses in the Epupa Metamorphic Complex of northwestern Namibia

The Epupa Metamorphic Complex constitutes the southwestern margin of the Congo Craton and is exposed in a hilly to mountainous terrain of northwestern Namibia, bordering the Kunene River and extending into southern Angola. It consists predominantly of granitoid gneisses which are migmatized over large areas. This migmatization locally led to anatexis and produced crustal-melt granites such as the Otjitanda Granite. We have undertaken reconnaissance geochemical studies and single zircon U–Pb SHRIMP and Pb–Pb evaporation dating of rocks of the Epupa Complex. The granitoid gneisses, migmatites and anatectic melts are similar in composition and constitute a suite of metaluminous to peraluminous, calc-alkaline granitoids, predominantly with volcanic arc geochemical signatures. The zircon protolith ages for the orthogneisses range from 1861 ± 3 to 1758 ± 3 Ma. Anatexis in the migmatitic Epupa gneisses was dated from a melt patch at 1762 ± 4 Ma, and the anatectic Otjitanda Granite has a zircon age of 1757 ± 4 Ma. Migmatization and anatexis therefore occurred almost immediately after granitoid emplacement and date a widespread high-temperature Palaeoproterozoic event at ∼1760 Ma which has not been recorded elswhere in northern Namibia. The Nd isotopic systematics of all dated samples are surprisingly similar and suggest formation of the protolith from a source region that probably separated from the depleted mantle about 2.4–2.0 Ga ago. A major Archaean component in the source area is unlikely.     

Plant productivity, predation, and the abundance of black-tailed jackrabbits in the Chihuahuan Desert of Mexico

The abundance of black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus) can fluctuate dramatically. We used data from the Chihuahuan Desert to test the relative strength of top-down (predation) or bottom-up (food availability) limiting forces. Predictions for the top-down hypothesis were, 1) a positive relationship between coyote (Canis latrans) and jackrabbit abundance (numerical response) and 2) a positive relationship between percent occurrence of jackrabbits in coyote scats and jackrabbit abundance (functional response). Predictions for the bottom-up hypothesis were, 1) plant productivity is directly related to precipitation, 2) jackrabbit abundance is positively related to precipitation and plant productivity, and 3) changes in abundance of jackrabbits over the reproductive season will be directly related to precipitation and plant productivity. We found a limited numerical response but no functional response of coyotes to jackrabbit abundance. Forb productivity was significantly related to annual precipitation levels (r² = 0.69, p = 0.002). Grass productivity was related to annual precipitation (r² = 0.34, p = 0.028). Jackrabbit abundance (r² = 0.38, p = 0.002) and changes in abundance (r² = 0.73, p < 0.001) were significantly related to precipitation and forb and grass productivity. We conclude that precipitation levels and plant productivity affect jackrabbit abundance more than predation levels.