矿井涌水量混沌时间序列分析与预测

矿井地下水系统是个非线性系统,由于地下水系统的复杂性,很难完全确定影响矿井涌水量的因素,因此传统的矿井涌水预测表现出较大的局限性。而混沌时间序列分析能够利用单变量处理方法,分析矿井地下水系统中,由于多因素耦合作用所产生的矿井涌水量时间序列。通过对某矿区1985年9月至2005年2月矿井涌水量时间序列资料的分析,显示矿井涌水量时间序列具有混沌特征;通过对比预测值和实测值,表明预测精度高。因此,混沌时间序列分析方法用于矿井涌水量预测是可行的。     

江西省永平铜矿西部排土场极限堆载高度确定

国内外对排土场极限堆载高度的理论计算缺乏研究,目前尚无成熟的统一理论计算方法。文章结合永平铜矿西部排土场的工程实例,在进行边坡工程地质条件勘察与排土场岩土物理力学性质试验研究的基础上,采用数值计算方法对排土场进行了分层堆载数值模拟计算。通过对计算结果的分析,得到位移、塑性区与安全系数随堆载高度的变化规律,并确定了该排土场的极限堆载高度。     

云南绿春咪霞金矿成矿地质条件

咪霞金矿赋存在多元素高背景值下志留统薄层状蚀变板岩中,受北西向F6-1断裂及正长岩、煌斑岩控制,与多元素异常、黄铁矿化等多种围岩蚀变对应,具较好的成矿地质条件。     

发挥自身优势 扩大经营 走探采一体化道路

煤炭地质勘查单位,通过几十年的艰苦奋斗,不仅为国家找出了大量的煤炭资源,同时也积累了丰富的管理、施工和技术工作经验,以及大量的地质资料。应该发挥自身优势,充分利用大量的以往地质资料,结合新的找矿理论和先进的地面勘查手段,加大人才培养和引进力度,逐步提升专业技术人员的学识和科技水平,加强基础地质工作,不断寻找新的工作靶区,把握住煤炭勘查市场的主动权。抓住机遇,做好资金积累,加强资本运做,充分利用已有探矿权,走探采一体化道路,做精做强到做大地勘单位,是生存和发展的良好出路。     

小面元三维地震勘探技术在西山屯兰矿南五采区的应用

屯兰矿南五采区地形复杂,最大高差达271m,地表大面积为第四系黄土覆盖,激发困难。为探索研究小面元三维地震勘探技术的应用效果。在常规三维地震勘区域内划出1km^2,采用5m×5m小面元进行采集。在地震数据采集过程中,采取了加大激发井深、提高覆盖次数、减小CMP面元网格和加大接收排列等技术措施,做到“四小三高、二中一深、两个等高面”。通过插值、抽线及扩大面元处理。获得2．5m×2．5m×1ms、5m×5m×1ms、5m×10m×1ms、10m×10m×1ms以及不同叠加次数的三维数据体。资料解释工作主要是在5m×5m×1ms、2．5m×2．5m×1ms两个数据体上进行,解释落差大于或等于5m的断层6条,落差3～5m的断层8条;查明长轴直径20～30m的陷落柱4个。30～100m的陷落柱1个,大于100m的陷落柱3个。与相邻区常规三维地震比较,小面元三维地震勘探有利于对小陷落柱、小断层的控制和解释。     

试论我国城市发展方针

在执行重重工业的发展战略和城乡分割体制的计划经济背景下,我国制定了“控制大城市规模,合理发展中等城市,积极发展小城市”的城市建设方针。但是分析表明,这一方针不能适应市场经济和对外开放形势的需要,也不符合我国人多地少、农村剩余劳动力多的国情,必须调整现有的城市发展方针,选择适宜的城市化发展道路。因此,本文就适度发展大中城市,提高城市现代化水平;加速乡村城市化,积极合理发展小城镇;以及根据不同地区的具体情况,因地制宜地指定城市化途径等方面作了探讨。     

Estimation of statistical parameters for censored lognormal hydraulic conductivity measurements

Field tests of hydraulic conductivity (e.g., injection test, pumping test, etc.) in low permeability formations are subject to censoring due to the detection limit of the instruments used. An iterative method of estimating the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data with a presumed log-normal distribution function is presented. This method accounts for the data that are actually below the lower detection limit (called truncated data) and thus gives distribution parameters that are more representative for the underlying distribution. The proposed method is then tested on two simulated normally distributed random datasets having different variances. The results show that the means and variances estimated by the proposed method are very accurate. Finally, the method is used to estimate the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data from single hole water injection tests in a fractured geological formation.     

青海热水柴达尔井田构造组合型式

柴达尔井田构造可分为压缩机制的推覆构造与伸展机制的断块体两类。南北F0为逆冲型的控制性边界断裂，井田内部一系列小型弧形构造为逆掩型浅层断裂；F1、F2、F17，是拉伸作用下的同沉积正断层，切断煤系基底T3地层。其动力机制为印度板块向北推移、西伯利亚板块向南运移发生对挤，脆一韧性剪切变形导致了井用现有的构造组合形式。     

Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.