Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period

The present study assesses the forecast skill of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) observed during the period of DYNAMO (Dynamics of the MJO)/CINDY (Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in Year 2011) field campaign in the GFS (NCEP Global Forecast System), CFSv2 (NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2) and UH (University of Hawaii) models, and revealed their strength and weakness in forecasting initiation and propagation of the MJO. Overall, the models forecast better the successive MJO which follows the preceding event than that with no preceding event (primary MJO). The common modeling problems include too slow eastward propagation, the Maritime Continent barrier and weak intensity. The forecasting skills of MJO major modes reach 13, 25 and 28 days, respectively, in the GFS atmosphere-only model, the CFSv2 and UH coupled models. An equal-weighted multi-model ensemble with the CFSv2 and UH models reaches 36 days. Air–sea coupling plays an important role for initiation and propagation of the MJO and largely accounts for the skill difference between the GFS and CFSv2. A series of forecasting experiments by forcing UH model with persistent, forecasted and observed daily SST further demonstrate that: (1) air–sea coupling extends MJO skill by about 1 week; (2) atmosphere-only forecasts driven by forecasted daily SST have a similar skill as the coupled forecasts, which suggests that if the high-resolution GFS is forced with CFSv2 forecasted daily SST, its forecast skill can be much higher than its current level as forced with persistent SST; (3) atmosphere-only forecasts driven by observed daily SST reaches beyond 40 days. It is also found that the MJO–TC (Tropical Cyclone) interactions have been much better represented in the UH and CFSv2 models than that in the GFS model. Both the CFSv2 and UH coupled models reasonably well capture the development of westerly wind bursts associated with November 2011 MJO and the cyclogenesis of TC05A in the Indian Ocean with a lead time of 2 weeks. However, the high-resolution GFS atmosphere-only model fails to reproduce the November MJO and the genesis of TC05A at 2 weeks’ lead. This result highlights the necessity to get MJO right in order to ensure skillful extended-range TC forecasting.     

L群普通球粒陨石母体的撞击历史

撞击作用发生在太阳系形成和演化的所有阶段,是最基本的地质过程之一。陨石可以从微观尺度记录下这些重要的过程。在所有陨石族群中,L群普通球粒陨石保留了最完备的冲击变质记录,对撞击发生的时间、冲击过程中的物理条件提供了重要制约。矿物学证据表明,在太阳系形成100 Ma内,L群陨石母体可能发生一次撞击裂解事件,并在随后重组。4.48 Ga左右,原始小行星带经历大范围的撞击作用,这一事件也记录于L群普通球粒陨石中,可能是由月球大撞击事件溅射的大量碎屑进入到原始主小行星带引起。约800 Ma,包括L群陨石母体在内的内太阳系部分天体经历了同时期撞击事件,可能由这一时期裂解的大质量小行星产生的溅射物引发。L群陨石母体在～465 Ma发生撞击裂解,这一事件在L群陨石中保留了丰富的矿物学、年代学记录,并在地球全球奥陶纪地层发现相关信息。综合与该事件相关的所有L群陨石冲击变质特征,本文认为该裂解事件是由一颗大直径(18～22 km)石陨石质小行星,以较低速率(5～6 km/s)撞击导致。同位素年代学数据表明,L群普通球粒陨石母体很可能未受到晚期大撞击事件的影响,这难以用L群陨石母体过小予以解释。可能的原因有...     

中国南极球粒陨石的高精度钾同位素研究

钾和其他中等挥发性元素亏损是类地行星普遍的全岩化学成分特征之一,能用来示踪不同的亏损过程。球粒陨石是组成行星的前体物质,研究球粒陨石中钾同位素的亏损和分异机制,对于太阳系物质或行星的起源、形成和演化具有十分重要的意义。本文利用近年来发展的高精度钾同位素分析技术,测试了14个中国南极陨石以及6个目击型陨石(Murchison、Allende、Ningqiang、Tagish Lake、Xinyang和Banma)的全岩钾同位素组成。结果显示,21个碳质球粒陨石全岩δ⁴¹K值分布范围为-0.62‰±0.05‰至0.37‰±0.08‰,平均值为-0.32‰±0.24‰(2SD),比全岩硅酸盐地球(BSE)稍重。18个普通球粒陨石全岩数据(如果异常值GRV 021603除外)的δ⁴¹K值分布范围为-1.02‰±0.05‰到-0.61‰±0.02‰,平均δ⁴¹K值为-0.81‰±0.15‰(2SD),比全岩硅酸盐地球稍轻。2个目击型陨石Murchison(CM2型)和Allende(CV3型),呈现较大的内部钾同位素差异(分别为0...     

南极格罗夫山普通球粒陨石的矿物岩石学特征

本文研究了第19次中国南极科学考察队收集的97块普通球粒陨石样品的矿物岩石学特征,在此基础上划分了陨石的岩石学类型、化学群、冲击变质和风化类型。共发现5块非平衡型普通球粒陨石:GRV 020011(L3),GRV 020035(H3),GRV 020054(H3),GRV 020137(L3)和GRV020169(L3)。化学群分类的结果是H群陨石24块,L群70块,LL群3块。多数样品的冲击变质程度较低,但也有少量样品具有S5型的冲击变质特征。样品的风化程度普遍较低,仅GRV020055(H5),GRV022123(L5)和GRV022462(LL6)3块陨石达到了W3型。     

GIS for the assessment of the groundwater recharge potential zone

Water resources in Taiwan are unevenly distributed in spatial and temporal domains. Effectively utilizing the water resources is an imperative task due to climate change. At present, groundwater contributes 34% of the total annual water supply and is an important fresh water resource. However, over-exploitation has decreased groundwater availability and has led to land subsidence. Assessing the potential zone of groundwater recharge is extremely important for the protection of water quality and the management of groundwater systems. The Chih-Pen Creek basin in eastern Taiwan is examined in this study to assess its groundwater resources potential. Remote sensing and the geographical information system (GIS) are used to integrate five contributing factors: lithology, land cover/land use, lineaments, drainage, and slope. The weights of factors contributing to the groundwater recharge are derived using aerial photos, geology maps, a land use database, and field verification. The resultant map of the groundwater potential zone demonstrates that the highest recharge potential area is located towards the downstream regions in the basin because of the high infiltration rates caused by gravelly sand and agricultural land use in these regions. In contrast, the least effective recharge potential area is in upstream regions due to the low infiltration of limestone.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface sediments of the East China Sea and their relationship with carbonaceous materials

This study measured concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments in the East China Sea (ECS) to investigate possible sources and fate of PAHs. Total concentration of PAHs in the sediments of the ECS ranged from 22 to 244 ng g(-1), with the highest levels in the coastal area and outer shelf. The observed PAH results showed elevated levels in both inner and outer shelf areas, a finding that is different from predictions by an ocean circulation model, suggesting that terrestrial sources are important for PAH contaminations in the ECS, while sediment resuspension, tidal changes and lateral transport may be important in affecting the distribution of PAHs in the outer shelf. The distribution of PAHs in the surface sediments of the ECS is similar to the distribution of carbonaceous materials (e.g., particulate organic carbon and black carbon), suggesting that carbonaceous materials may strongly affect the distribution of PAHs.     

Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind

This study develops a probability-based methodology to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. A wind speed frequency model and flood frequency analysis, including various distribution types and uncertainties in their parameters, are presented. Furthermore, dam overtopping probabilities based on monthly maximum (MMax) series models are compared with those of the annual maximum (AMax) series models. An efficient sampling scheme, which is a combination of importance sampling (IS) and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) methods, is proposed to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.     

Seasonal evolution of the intraseasonal variability of China summer precipitation

Climate Dynamics - Seasonal cycle of China summer precipitation has significant impacts on its subseasonal predictability; yet current understanding of seasonal evolution of the intraseasonal...     

Analysis of the Sanchung inundation during Typhoon Aere, 2004

Typhoon Aere swept over Taiwan with heavy rain, which induced huge discharge in the Danshuei River in August 2004. The flood in the Danshuei River intruded Sanchung through a culvert that was under construction. The deluge inundated thousands of premises and resulted in severe damage. This study reconstructs the event scenario using hydrologic and hydraulic methods to analyse the causes of the disaster. We integrated the radar rainfall estimations and rain gauge observations to recreate the temporal and spatial varied precipitation inputs; estimated the influent volume from the culvert using hydrologic equations; and simulated the flood dynamic within the study area during the event with a coupled overland and sewer flow model. The evidence showed that both the rainfall and the culvert flow contributed similar flood volume to the study area, but culvert discharge concentrated at single location within short time period such that the local drainage system could not cope with and notable damage was incurred.