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101.
在全球增暖及海平面上升背景下,风暴潮极端事件愈加严重,修筑海防工程是沿海地区应对和适应风暴潮灾害的主要工程性措施。以珠江三角洲为研究区,基于风暴潮历史灾害数据,分析了风暴潮增水与社会经济损失的关联性;提出了定量评价工程性适应风暴潮灾害的经济损益理论关系模型;推算了未来极端事件情景下,珠江三角洲海防工程建设的适应效果。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害的灾损率与增水呈显著正相关。海防工程建设高度在1.69~11.85 m内处于收益状态,其中5.22 m时收益最大。基于2030年、2050年以及2100年海平面上升叠加风暴潮情景,将海防工程设防标准定为应对2100年20年一遇风暴潮时的收益最大,标准定为应对2100年100年一遇风暴潮时收益最小。 相似文献
102.
A higher-order non-hydrostatic σ model is developed to simulate non-linear refraction–diffraction of water waves. To capture non-linear (or steep) waves, a 4th-order spatial discretization is utilized to approximate the large horizontal pressure gradient. A higher-order top-layer pressure treatment is further implemented to resolve wave propagation. The model's characteristics including linear wave dispersion and non-linearity are carefully examined. The accuracy of the present model using only two vertical layers is validated by laboratory data and the available results predicted by the non-linear Schrödinger equation, Boussinesq-type equations, the non-linear mild slope equation, and the Laplace equation. Features of harmonic generation as well as the influences of dispersion and non-linearity on wave energy transfer processes are discussed. 相似文献
103.
Seismic monitoring of western Pacific typhoons 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Wu-Cheng Chi Wan-Jou Chen Ban-Yuan Kuo David Dolenc 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2010,31(4):239-251
Typhoons inflict large damage to societies, but are usually difficult to monitor in close proximity in real-time without expensive
instruments. Here we study the possibility of using seismic waveforms on the seafloor and on land to monitor the turning of
a far away or approaching typhoon. Up to 67% of the typhoons making landfall in Taiwan come from the eastern shore, so that
we deployed broadband ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) offshore eastern Taiwan in 2006 to study ground motion in close proximity
to a typhoon. Typhoons generate ocean waves, which generate pressure signals in the water column before being transmitted
to the seafloor as seismic waves and recorded by the OBSs. The ground motions on the seafloor correlate with locally increased
(ocean) wave heights and wave periods, suggesting that the ground motions are mostly induced by in situ or nearby pressure
fields, as shown by coherence function analyses. When a typhoon turns and changes wave-wave interaction near the source region,
a new set of en echelon patterns develops which can be observed by OBSs and land stations. Similar features occur when a typhoon crosses a landmass
and re-enters the ocean. The energy level ratio between the single-frequency and double-frequency microseisms also changes
abruptly when the typhoon turns. These features can potentially help near real-time early warning with little cost to complement
other conventional typhoon early warning methods. 相似文献
104.
Ching-Yuang Huang Ying-Hwa Kuo Shu-Ya Chen Chuen-Tsyr Terng Fang-Ching Chien Pay-Liam Lin Mien-Tze Kueh Shu-Hua Chen Ming-Jen Yang Chieh-Ju Wang Anisetty S. K. A. V. Prasad Rao 《GPS Solutions》2010,14(1):35-49
The impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on severe weather predictions in East Asia is introduced and reviewed. Both the local observation operator that assimilates the retrieved refractivity as local point measurement, and the nonlocal observation operator that assimilates the integrated retrieved refractivity along a straight raypath have been utilized in WRF 3DVAR to improve the initial analysis of the model. A general evaluation of the impact of these approaches on Asian regional analysis and daily prediction is provided in this paper. In general, the GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons and Mei-yu systems when COSMIC data were available, ranging from several points in 2006 to a maximum of about 60 in 2007 and 2008 in this region. Based on a number of experiments, regional model predictions at 5 km resolution were not significantly influenced by different observation operators, although the nonlocal observation operator sometimes results in slightly better track forecast. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. The impact of 56 GPS RO soundings on track prediction of Cyclone Gonu (2007) over the Indian Ocean is also appealing when compared to other tracks assimilated with different observations. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on Mei-yu frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations. 相似文献
105.
Ya-Ju Hsu Paul Segall Shui-Beih Yu Long-Chen Kuo Charles A. Williams 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(2):367-379
We use GPS displacements collected in the 15 months after the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake ( M w 7.6) to evaluate whether post-seismic deformation is better explained by afterslip or viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. We find that all viscoelastic models tested fail to fit the general features in the post-seismic GPS displacements, in contrast to the satisfactory fit obtained with afterslip models. We conclude that afterslip is the dominant mechanism in the 15-month period, and invert for the space–time distribution of afterslip, using the Extended Network Inversion Filter. Our results show high slip rates surrounding the region of greatest coseismic slip. The slip-rate distribution remains roughly stationary over the 15-month period. In contrast to the limited coseismic slip on the décollement, afterslip is prominent there. Maximum afterslip of 0.57 m occurs downdip and to the east of the hypocentral region. Afterslip at hypocentral depths is limited to the southern part of the main shock rupture, with little or no slip on the northern section where coseismic slip was greatest. Whether this results from along strike variations in frictional properties or dynamic conditions that locally favour stable sliding is not clear. In general, afterslip surrounds the area of greatest coseismic slip, consistent with post-seismic slip driven by the main shock stress change. The total accumulated geodetic afterslip moment is 3.8 × 1019 N m , significantly more than the seismic moment released by aftershocks, 6.6 × 1018 N m . Afterslip and aftershocks appear to have different temporal evolutions and some spatial correlations, suggesting that aftershock rates may not be completely controlled by the rate of afterslip. 相似文献
106.
地质灾害危险性评价研究——以四川省青川县为例 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
我国是一个地质灾害多发的国家。20世纪90年中期,每年造成1000多人死亡,经济损失高达200多亿元。地质灾害危险性评价是地质灾害调查的重要内容,也是风险管理及减灾管理的基础,它为管理部门制定出相应的减灾对策并为部署实施有效的减灾工程提供了科学依据。文章首先介绍了国内外地质灾害危险性评价方法的研究现状,通过对比,指出现阶段我国地质灾害危险性评价中的不足;结合实际工作经验,运用危险性评价指标对比法建立了简单有效的地质灾害危险性评价体系。以四川省青川县地质灾害调查为例,对该县地质灾害进行了危险性评价,为地质灾害易发区划分及防治分区提供了依据。 相似文献
107.
Ching-Yuang Huang Ying-Hwa Kuo Shu-Ya Chen Anisetty S. K. A. V. Prasad Rao Chien-Ju Wang 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1577-1591
In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-2.0.3.1) model with three-dimensional variational data assimilation
(3DVAR) was utilized to study a heavy rainfall event along the west coast of India with and without the assimilation of GPS
occultation refractivity soundings in the monsoon period of 2002. The WRF model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather
prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research communities. The Global Positioning
System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) refractivity data, processed by UCAR, were obtained from the CHAMP and SAC-C missions.
This study investigates the impact of thirteen GPS occultation refractivity soundings only, as assimilated into the WRF model
with 3DVAR, on the rainfall prediction over the western coastal mountain of India. The model simulation, with the finest resolution
of 10 km, was in good agreement with rainfall observations, up to 72-h forecast. There are some subtle but important differences
in predicted rainfalls between the control run CN (without the assimilation of refractivity soundings) and G13 (with the assimilation
of thirteen GPS RO soundings). In general, the assimilation run G13 gives a better prediction in terms of both rainfall locations
and amounts at later times. The moisture increments were analyzed at the initial and forecast times to assess the impact of
GPS RO data assimilation. The results indicate that remote soundings in the forcing region could have significant impacts
on distant downstream regions. It is anticipated, based on this study, that considerably occultation soundings available from
the six-satellite constellation of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC would have even more significant impacts on weather prediction in this
region. 相似文献
108.
昆明市东川城区后山泥石流危险性评价 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
云南省是中国遭受泥石流灾害最严重的省区之一,而对危险范围和危险程度进行划分和评估是泥石流减灾的重要内容。以昆明市东川城区后山泥石流为例,应用泥石流沟危险度综合评价法对泥石流危险度进行了评价;接着应用流域背景预测模型对泥石流危险范围进行预测,在这些数据和已构建的东川城区数字高程模型数据的基础上,应用GIS生成了以上泥石流危险范围预测图,研究成果为东川城区减灾防灾提供了科学依据。 相似文献
109.
A general solution for groundwater flow in an estuarine's leaky aquifer system after considering aquifer anisotropy 下载免费PDF全文
This paper presents an analytical model for describing the tidal effects in a two‐dimensional leaky confined aquifer system in an estuarine delta where ocean and river meet. This system has an unconfined aquifer on top and a confined aquifer on the bottom with an aquitard in between the two. The unconfined and confined aquifers interact with each other through leakage. It was assumed that the aquitard storage was negligible and that the leakage was linearly proportional to the head difference between the unconfined and confined aquifers. This model's solution was based on the separation of variables method. Two existing solutions that deal with the head fluctuation in one‐dimensional or two‐dimensional leaky confined aquifers are shown as special cases in the present solution. Based on this new solution, the dynamic effect of the water table's fluctuations can be clearly explored, as well as the influence of leakage on the behaviour of fluctuations in groundwater levels in the leaky aquifer system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
110.
Ancient mantle lithosphere beneath the Khanka massif in the Russian Far East: in situ Re–Os evidence 下载免费PDF全文
Kuo‐Lung Wang Vladimir Prikhodko Suzanne Y. O'Reilly William L. Griffin Norman J. Pearson Victor Kovach Yoshiyuki Iizuka Yu‐Hsian Chien 《地学学报》2015,27(4):277-284
The Os‐isotope compositions of sulphides in mantle xenoliths hosted by Late Miocene alkali basalts from the Sviyaginsky volcano, Russian Far East, reveal the presence of Archaean–Proterozoic subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath the Khanka massif. Their TMA and TRD model ages reveal similar peaks at 1.1 and 0.8 Ga suggesting later thermotectonic events in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle, whereas TRD model ages range back to 2.8 ± 0.5 (2σ) Ga. The events recognized in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle are consistent with those recorded in the crust of the Khanka massif. The sulphide Os‐isotope data show that the subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath the Khanka massif had formed at least by the Mesoproterozoic, and was subsequently metasomatized by juvenile crustal‐growth events related to the evolution of the Altaids. The Khanka massif is further proposed to have tectonic affinity to the Siberia Craton and should originate from it accordingly. 相似文献