Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

Soil bentonite wall protects foundation from thrust faulting: analyses and experiment

When seismic thrust faults emerge on the ground surface,they are particularly damaging to buildings,bridges and lifelines that lie on the rupture path.To protect a structure founded on a rigid raft,a thick diaphragm-type soil bentonite wall(SBW) is installed in front of and near the foundation,at sufficient depth to intercept the propagating fault rupture.Extensive numerical analyses,verified against reduced–scale(1 g) split box physical model tests,reveal that such a wall,thanks to its high deformability and low shear resistance,"absorbs" the compressive thrust of the fault and forces the rupture to deviate upwards along its length.As a consequence,the foundation is left essentially intact.The effectiveness of SBW is demonstrated to depend on the exact location of the emerging fault and the magnitude of the fault offset.When the latter is large,the unprotected foundation experiences intolerable rigid-body rotation even if the foundation structural distress is not substantial.     

Observational study of the seasonality of the submonthly and intraseasonal signal over the tropics

Summary Atmospheric variability in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and tropospheric relative vorticity (VOR) over the South American region was studied from 1979 to 1996 using the complex Morlet wavelet function. The analyses focus on spatial variation in intraseasonal and submonthly scales. Scalograms were used to measure submonthly intraseasonal oscillations in convection, which were found to be predominant in the tropical regions. However, 7-day and 15-day oscillations were observed at tropical and extratropical latitudes in spring and winter, indicating that transient disturbances play a more prominent role. Regarding VOR, tropical energy intensities were highest in the spring and summer, whereas subtropical and extratropical energy intensities were highest in the autumn and winter. The dynamics of the 25-day and 45-day VOR oscillations indicates a possible correlation with Rossby waves over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, mainly during the summer. During winter, the 7-day and 15-day VOR oscillations are more frequent at higher latitudes and are enhanced along storm tracks. It was also observed that convection amplitudes in the regions of maximum intensity change appreciably from year to year and from season to season, showing that the behavior of the submonthly and intraseasonal oscillations is nonperiodic and correlates strongly with El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation years. These results confirm the efficiency of wavelet analysis for time-scale studies of atmospheric variability.     

LABORATORY OBSERVATIONS OF SEDIMENT ENTRAINMENT BY FREEZING SUPERCOOLED WATER

Debris in basal ice produced by glaciohydraulic supercooling is typically characterized by high proportions of silt. A prominent hypothesis for this silt‐dominance is that frazil ice growing in supercooled water preferentially traps silt from sediment‐laden water percolating through it. It has therefore been suggested that silt‐dominance may be diagnostic of glaciohydraulic supercooling. The aim of our work is to test this hypothesis that freezing sediment‐laden supercooled water necessarily produces ice dominated by silt. We do this by simulating two freezing processes under laboratory conditions: (1) percolation of sediment‐laden water through frazil ice; (2) turbulent supercooling and subsequent freezing of sediment‐laden water. In experiments repeated using different particle sizes (sand, silt and clay in individual experiments) both processes entrained sand most effectively and silt least effectively. In experiments using a sediment mixture dominated by medium to coarse silt, both processes produced ice facies dominated by particle sizes between fine sand and coarse silt. These results suggest that silt‐dominance should therefore not be expected for supercooled freeze‐on, and is not a reliable diagnostic signature for supercooling. The silt‐dominated character of basal ice types associated with supercooling may result from other controls such as a silt‐dominated sediment supply or subglacial water flow rates, rather than the freezing process.     

A 3D multi-threshold,region-growing algorithm for identifying dust storm features from model simulations

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property, and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecast models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. These simulation outputs are in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation, and time) and represent spatially heterogeneous dust storm features and their evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing-based algorithm to identify critical dust storm features from 3D dust storm simulations. A multi-threshold scheme is defined for the identification of dust storm features with different dust concentrations. Based on the multi-thresholds, dust storm features are iteratively identified by developing a region-growing algorithm that splits a clustered dust storm feature into multiple sub-features. The proposed approach is compared with three commonly used methods in image processing and thunderstorm identification. The proposed approach outperforms the other three methods in sensitivity and quantitative/qualitative accuracy. This research approach may also be slightly adjusted to identify critical 3D features from simulation outputs for other severe weather and geographical phenomena.     

厄尔尼诺与亚洲季风对港澳地区降雨影响

分析研究了香港1853～1997年（145年）、澳门1901～1997年（97年）的月和年降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：（1）香港、澳门年降雨量存在准2～6年的周期振荡，澳门年降雨量有很强的长期趋势，香港年降雨量无明显趋势；（2）香港、澳门年内雨量的峰值出现在西南季风期（6月和8月），而谷值在东北季风期（12月）；（3）EI Nino事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为正，降雨偏多。在La Nila事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为负，降雨偏少。     

新世纪广西的区域开发与可持续发展

分析了广西的基本区情条件，揭示了广西区域开发格局的空间变动趋势，提出了广西新世纪实施可持续发展战略的举措，即加强以交通为主的基础设施建设，开发以洪水河为主的水能资源，加快建设成为南中国西南东输的枢纽；调整和优化产业结构，确立主导产业的市场地位，提升优势产业的市场竞争力；加快城乡转型的进程，提高城镇化的水平和质量，控制人口增长、提高人口质量，治理环境污染；制度创新， 优化经济布局的区域结构。     

Chemical composition of waters and the phytoplankton of the lakes within the delta of the Selenga river

Field observations showed that the characteristics of chemical composition of waters and the development of plankton algae in the lakes within the delta of the Selenga river are determined by their flowage. The most open Lake Nekipelovskoe communicates with the Selenga outlets throughout a year, and Lake Zavernyaikha only at the period of an open channel. Lake Semenovskoe and Lake Khlystov Zaton are located in the islands and are isolated from the outlets. According to composition of main ions, the lakes under investigation refer to the hydrocarbonate class, the calcium group. The sum of ions in the water of Lake Nekipelovskoe approaches the one in the Selenga (86?221 mg/dm³), and the highest sums of ions were recorded in the wintertime in the lakes isolated from the outlets (446?743 mg/dm³). The lakes of the delta are characterized by a high trophicity. The maximum concentrations of total phosphorus in Lake Nekipelovskoe and Lake Zavernyaikha were 68 and 122 μg mg/dm³, and in Lake Semenovskoe and Lake Khlystov Zaton ?0.8 and ?0.63 μg mg/dm³, respectively. The most intense development of algae is observed in Lake Zavernyaikha, which is due to the high population of Baikal endemics. Lake Zavernyaikha showed a close negative correlation between the concentration of NO ₃ ^? , mineral phosphorus and phytoplankton biomass; the correlation coefficient was ?0.8 and ?0.63, respectively. The lakes exhibited increased contents readily hydrolysable organic matter, and a decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration in winter; hydrogen sulfide was repeatedly recorded in Lake Khlystov Zaton. The water quality in the lakes during the springtime varies from “quite clean” to “weakly polluted”; at low-water periods, especially in winters, it can drop to the category of “exceedingly dirty”. The water quality of the Selenga can be influenced by the lakes during spring floods when material accumulated during the wintertime is transported to the river outlets and further to Lake Baikal.