Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

Climate Whispers: Media Communication About Climate Change

The product of ten months of careful collection, review, analysis and international consensus building was, on completion, communicated through the news media in April 1997. The story, which concerned the potential for changes in tropical cyclone intensity in a greenhouse-warmed world, gained media interest in Australia because in the previous month Tropical Cyclone Justin had occupied public attention. The two days of media coverage essentially rewrote the committee findings. The process closely resembled the children's party game of Chinese whispers in which a simple statement is modified, sometimes beyond recognition, by repetition without understanding or correction. This paper reports and analyzes the processes involved in this miscommunication of science to and through the media and draws some salutory lessons.     

The Lilloise Intrusion, East Greenland: Fractionation of a Hydrous Alkali Picritic Magma

The Lilloise is an 8 km4 km layered mafic intrusion which cutsthe plateau basalts of the East Greenland Tertiary province.Lilloise was intruded at 50 Ma, 4–5 Ma after cessationof the voluminous tholeiitic magmatism which accompanied riftingof the East Greenland continental margin. Lilloise is unusualamong layered intrusions in the province because it had a hydrousalkali picrite parent magma and generated a late-stage effluxof magmatic water from the intrusion into the aureole rocks.The three major subdivisions of the layered rocks are: olivine-clinopyroxene,olivine-clinopyroxene-plagioclase and plagioclase-amphibolecumulates. Massive subsidence of the intrusion before completesolidification resulted in deformation of the internal layeringand downturn of the bedding in the surrounding basalts. A strikingfeature of the intrusion is the injection of the layered rocksby a plexus of magmatic sheets which formed at the time of subsidence.The composition of these sheets is representative of the fractionationtrend of the intrusion and ranges from hawaiite to mildly saturatedquartz trachyte. The fractionation trend is successfully explainedby extraction of cumulus minerals of the layered rocks froma parent magma represented by alkali picrite dykes of a contemporaneousregional dyke swarm. Saturated to mildly over-saturated syenitesare a major component of the East Greenland province and theLilloise intrusion is illustrative of an important magmatictrend towards such compositions at this stage in the openingof the North Atlantic. KEY WORDS: Lilloise intrusion; East Greenland; alkali picrite magma; layered intrusion; magmatic differentiation ^*Corraponding author     

A case study: travel time inversion for P-wave velocity using OBS data of South China Sea

It is very important for converting the seismic data from the time domain to the depth domain. Here we discuss the approaches of inverse modeling of travel times for determination of the P-wave velocity (Vp). The migration section of the single channel seismic data is used to define the model horizons and help to control their geometry. Wide angle hydrophone data of OBS are used to determine P-wave travel times. The picked travel times from various shots are inverted for P-wave interval velocities using RayInvr, which calculated theoretical travel times via ray tracing. Damped least squares optimization is performed to fine tune the fits between observed and calculated travel times. In the end, the Vp curve is achieved and the results are compared with that derived from the conventional hyperbolic curve velocity analysis method, the shape of the two curves are similar, and the velocity increases in the layer where gas hydrates are present.     

NOISE,TEMPERATURE COEFFICIENT,AND LONG TIME STABILITY OF ELECTRODES FOR TELLURIC OBSERVATIONS*

Numerous electrodes, already used in geophysics or just perfected by us, have been compared by measuring the three main characteristics which interest the user: noise spectrum, temperature coefficient and polarization with its stability versus time. Among the most used unpolarizable electrodes, silver-silver chloride (Ag-AgCl) are the best ones. But a systematic research of all different possible metal-salt couples, have led us to use lead-lead chloride (Pb-PbCl₂) for the following reasons: noise as low as the one of Ag-AgCl at 1 Hz and even lower for the low frequencies (0.4 μV at 1 Hz and 1.2 μV at 0.01 Hz for peak to peak value and ΔF=F), temperature coefficient about ten times weaker (?40 μV/°C instead of ?450 μV/°C) and also better long time stability of the polarization (1 mV/month instead of 2 at 10 mV/month). We have been using these electrodes since 1977 as “tube” electrodes which are very easy to use. They allow us to record correctly the fast variations thanks to their low noise, the very slow variations, their low temperature coefficient and their stability, and this with telluric lines only about 100 m long.     

岷江上游干扰岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析

岷江上游地处我国著名的南北向地震带的中段，因其特定的地质环境导致区内表生地质灾害极为严重。通过对岷江上游（汶川以上）河段的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等表生地质灾害的调查研究，其分布沿岷江两岸具有明显的分段特征与河谷地貌分段基本一致，它们形成发展与特定地形地貌、易崩滑或软弱地层、特殊的构造部位、降雨等密切相关。     

Relationship between the velocity ellipsoids of galactic-disk stars and their ages and metallicities

The dependences of the velocity ellipsoids of F-G stars of the thin disk of the Galaxy on their ages and metallicities are analyzed based on the new version of the Geneva-Copenhagen Catalog. The age dependences of the major, middle, and minor axes of the ellipsoids, and also of the dispersion of the total residual velocity, obey power laws with indices 0.25, 0.29, 0.32, and 0.27 (with uncertainties ±0.02). Due to the presence of thick-disk objects, the analogous indices for all nearby stars are about a factor of 1.5 larger. Attempts to explain such values are usually based on modeling relaxation processes in the Galactic disk. Elimination of stars in the most numerous moving groups from the sample slightly reduces the corresponding indices (0.22, 0.26, 0.27, and 0.24). Limiting the sample to stars within 60 pc of the Sun, so that the sample can be considered to be complete, leaves both the velocity ellipsoids and their age dependences virtually unchanged. With increasing age, the velocity ellipsoid increases in size and becomes appreciablymore spherical, turns toward the direction of the Galactic center, and loses angular momentum. The shape of the velocity ellipsoid remains far from equilibrium. With increasing metallicity, the velocity ellipsoid for stars of mixed age increases in size, displays a weak tendency to become more spherical, and turns toward the direction of the Galactic center (with these changes occurring substantially more rapidly in the transition through the metallicity [Fe/H]≈−0.25). Thus, the ellipsoid changes similarly to the way it does with age; however, with decreasing metallicity, the rotational velocity about the Galactic center monotonically increases, rather than decreases (!). Moreover, the power-law indices for the age dependences of the axes depend on the metallicity, and display a maximum near [Fe/H] ≈−0.1. The age dependences of all the velocity-ellipsoid parameters for stars with equal metallicity are roughly the same. It is proposed that the appearance of a metallicity dependence of the velocity ellipsoids for thin-disk stars, recorded from the close to the Sun, is most likely due to the radial migration of stars.     

The Dynamics of Spring Ice Drifts and Jams in the Northern Dvina and Pechora Mouths

The dynamic type of ice drift development is found to dominate in the mouth zones of the Northern Dvina and Pechora rivers in the period of spring ice break. The ice drift is accompanied by the formation of ice jams in the mouth, the most common among them being jams of arched and wedge type. The jams are a common cause of flooding of towns and settlements in the region. The particular features of ice breaking in the mouths of northern rivers are discussed along with the regularities of ice jam formation during ice drift. The formation of jams is shown to be associated with stable retardation of ice in the sites of river channels that have specific morphological characteristics or to be caused by drifting ice mass running into solid ice fields in lower parts of river delta arms.