奇异谱分析方法在夏季降雨预测中的应用

运用奇异谱分析方法对石家庄市83年降水进行了统计分析，结果表明：石家庄市近百年夏季降水的趋势变化不太显著，主要以波动变化为主，主振荡周期分别为5－6年、10年左右及30－40年左右的长周期变化，各重建分量振幅、位相具有明显的年代际变化。利用重建分量进行降水趋势预测，1998－2001年试报表明，效果较好。     

The statistical distribution of nearbed wave orbital velocity in intermediate coastal water depth

The statistical distribution of wave orbital velocity in intermediate coastal water depth has been quantitatively determined from the comprehensive field velocity data collected near the seabed in this study. Two ocean ADV current meters, which were mounted at 0.5 m above the seabed on two separate stainless steel tripods sitting on the seabed, were used to measure instantaneous water particle velocities at a 2 Hz sampling rate for 17.07 min every hour in two coastal water depths of 11 m and 23 m in nine field deployments over a period of 2 years. The zero-crossing method is applied to analyse the field velocity data collected in each field deployment to obtain a large sample of wave orbital velocity amplitudes of individual waves. Based on the collected field velocity data, it is found that the histogram of instantaneous wave orbital velocities perfectly follows the Gaussian distribution as commonly assumed, while the histogram of wave orbital velocity amplitudes is less accurately described by the Rayleigh distribution than the modified Rayleigh and the Weibull distribution. It is also found that large orbital velocity amplitudes are generally overestimated by the Rayleigh distribution, but well predicted by the modified Rayleigh and the Weibull distribution. The expected value of maximum orbital velocity in a velocity record of finite size is also derived from the three distributions and found to agree well with the present field data.     

赤潮微藻对指状许水蚤生殖、生长和发育的影响

在实验室条件下研究了4种赤潮微藻:中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)、赤潮异弯藻(Heterosigma akashi-wo)、塔玛亚历山大藻(Alexandrium tamarense)和东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense)以及赤潮异弯藻不同组分对海洋桡足类指状许水蚤(Schmackeria inopinus)生殖、生长和发育的影响。结果表明:(1)4种赤潮微藻能够显著延迟指状许水蚤的抱卵时间并导致抱卵率的降低(P0.05),塔玛亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻和赤潮异弯藻导致指状许水蚤卵囊发育所需时间和抱卵间隔时间的明显延长(P0.05),与对照组相比差异显著;(2)4种赤潮微藻明显抑制了指状许水蚤的发育过程(P0.05),其中赤潮异弯藻作用最为显著;(3)赤潮异弯藻4种组分:细胞液、细胞破碎液、细胞过滤液和细胞重悬浮液均能够延迟指状许水蚤抱卵时间,降低其抱卵率,同时藻细胞过滤液、藻细胞重悬浮液和藻细胞液显著延长了指状许水蚤卵囊发育时间和抱卵间隔时间(P0.05);4种组分均可对指状许水蚤的发育产生明显影响(P0.05),但只有藻细胞液对其生长影响显著(P0.05)。结果表明,4种赤潮微藻均能对指状许水蚤的生殖、生长和发育过程产生不利影响,进而对其生活史特征和种群数量产生影响。     

地形与热源强迫下的南方涛动

用El Nino和La Nina位相时的海温异常和地形作为大气下垫面的异常强迫,引入IAP的两层原始方程大气环流模式,模拟出了南方涛动的典型结构.当去掉地形后,仅仅由海温异常也能模拟出太平洋东西部的气压异常振荡,但太平洋东部振荡中心的位置并不与观测的一致.由此可见,观测到的南方涛动是在实际地形下对全球海温异常的响应.     

中国沿海多鳞四指马鲅(Eleutheronema rhadinum)与四指马鲅(E. tridactylum)形态与遗传位点差异分析

多鳞四指马鲅(Eleutheronema rhadinum)与四指马鲅(Eleutheronema tridactylum)是四指马鲅属(Eleutheronema)中的名贵经济鱼类,具有良好的养殖开发前景。本文对中国沿海多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅群体的26个形态特征值进行了多变量比较分析,提取了7个主成分,累计贡献率达到91.112%,前三个主成分贡献率分别为28.759%、21.467%、15.469%。多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅形态差异主要体现在头背部、尾柄部、背腹轴及头尾轴的特征。利用4个形态学参数建立了2群体判别公式,综合判别准确率高达100%,可作为多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅物种资源的初步判定方法。另外,利用简化基因组测序开发出多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅SNP标记69207个、In Del标记12884个,丰富了四指马鲅属鱼类遗传结构研究数据。本研究为进一步开展四指马鲅数属物种资源评估与保护、选育、功能基因研究提供基础资料。     

海底双相随机介质声反射的SVM神经网络分类识别研究

考虑海底沉积介质为双相介质,为了更好地模拟实际海底底质的不均匀性,将随机介质理论引入双相介质理论。首先,通过基于随机-双相介质理论的高阶有限差分数值技术模拟计算海底底质分别为泥质砂、泥、泥质砾时的地震反射波信号。然后利用小波变换分别求取不同底质的一次反射波的包络作为其特征向量,最后利用基于粒子群智能算法优化的支持向量机神经网络对这些反射波信号进行分类识别。为了进一步考察所用方法的抗噪能力,对正演得到的海底底质反射波信号分别加入10%、30%、50%的高斯白噪音之后再进行分类,支持向量机仍然取得了较好的分类预测效果。基于上述正演模拟及分类识别方法的论证,提出了一套行之有效的微机软件模拟海底沉积物分类识别的一般化流程,这将有利于开展海底沉积物反射特征的进一步研究。     

内马铁路一期工程局部不规则二维场地地震反应分析

基于内马铁路一期工程地质资料,利用ABAQUS有限元软件建立某局部不规则二维场地有限元计算模型,利用Python语言进行二次开发,编制二维等效线性化计算程序。开展50年超越概率63%、10%和2%水准下的土层地震反应分析计算,对不规则地形不同位置处的地震动峰值加速度和频谱特性进行对比分析。研究结果表明,不规则地形对地震动特性的影响显著。本文研究结果对内马铁路一期工程地震动参数确定具有指导意义,同时可为跨越不规则地形工程结构抗震设计提供参考。     

Wave Loads and Protective Techniques of An On-Shore Wave Power Device

In this paper, the extreme wave loads on an on-shore wave power device are investigated. First, boundary element method is applied to solve the three dimensional potential problem based on the small amplitude wave assumption. Then the motion of the Oscillating Water Column (OWC) inside the device and its laods on the device are calculated in time domain. Several protective techniques often applied are simulated by changing the constraint of the upper end of the chamber of the device. Numerical results are used to judge the effectiveness of these techniques. The investigation shows that damping can not effectively restrain the motion of OWC when the period of incident wave is long, which may cause dangerous loads on the structure. The shut chamber can effectively restrain the motion of OWC, but alternatively cause high pressure in the chamber. A Contracting opening with a Taper (CT) can exhaust a great amount of kinetic energy of OWC, and significantly decrease the loads. It is a promising protective tec     

丙溴磷对二种海洋微藻的GPx活性及GSH、CAR含量的影响

实验以三角褐指藻和青岛大扁藻为材料 ,进行了丙溴磷农药对海洋微藻的抗氧化防御系统成份— GPx(glutatione Peroxidase)活性和 GSH(glutathione)、CAR(carotinoid)含量的影响研究 ,结果表明 ,在丙溴磷胁迫下 ,微藻的 GPx活性呈现下降趋势 ,GSH和 CAR含量也表现为下降趋势 ,并且胁迫的时间越长、胁迫的强度越大它们下降的幅度也越大。因此微藻细胞对抗氧化防御系统的能力被削弱 ,从而可能导致活性氧在体内的过量产生与积累 ,进而对藻细胞造成更大的伤害。     

Stress Sharing Behavior and Its Mechanism during Consolidation Process in Composite Ground Improved by Sand Compaction Piles with Low Replacement Area Ratio

In order to accurately design a sand compaction pile (SCP) with low replacement area ratio, it is important to understand the mechanical interaction between the sand pile and clay ground and its mechanism during consolidation process in composite ground. In this article, therefore, a series of numerical analyses on composite ground improved by SCP with low replacement area ratio were carried out. The applicability of numerical analyses, in which an elasto-viscoplastic consolidation finite element method was applied, were confirmed by comparing the results obtained from a series of laboratory model tests with the composite ground improved by SCP. Through the results of the numerical analyses, mechanical behavior of the sand pile and clay in composite ground during consolidation is elucidated, together with a stress sharing mechanism between sand pile and clay.