During July 11–14, 2012, deadly floods and landslides triggered by a series of unprecedented heavy rains hit Kyushu, Japan, causing at least 32 deaths and around 400,000 evacuations. We focus on synoptic anomalies identified after inspecting rainfall patterns and documenting the conditions associated with this tragic event using data combined from the Global Rainfall Map in Near Real Time data, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset, and the global forecast system. Rainfall maps indicated that there were many heavy rains in Kyushu in these days and this disaster was associated with the pattern of forecasts and standardized anomalies. A weather trough with positive height anomalies appeared, the center of which moved to the north of Japan over this period, which might cause wind anomalies and whereby lots of water vapor were transported to Kyushu area with up to 90 m s?1, and high values of precipitable water formed with up to 60 mm. These results suggest that a larger-scale pattern is conducive for heavy rainfall and the anomalies put the pattern in context as to the potential for an extreme rainfall event, which can provide insights and methods for predicting extreme events’ or something similar. 相似文献
Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.
Key policy insights
A more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario research
It is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenarios
Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature
Participatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation
Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an... 相似文献
A seasonal evolution of surface mixed layer in the western North Pacific around 24°N between 143°E and 150°E was observed
by using an Argo float for more than 9 months, from December 2001 through August 2002. The result showed that the mixed layer
deepened gradually in the first two months. It reached its maximum depth of about 130 m at the end of January, after which
the mixed layer varied largely and sometimes the pycnocline below the mixed layer was much weakened until the summer mixed
layer formed in late April. The thin surface mixed layer was maintained during the rest of the observation period. Heat budget
analysis suggests that the vertical and horizontal temperature advections are the two most dominant terms in the heat balance
in the upper layer on time scales from a few days to a month. The vertical motions that are possibly responsible for the vertical
temperature advection are discussed. 相似文献
We developed a new system to monitor and forecast coastal and open-ocean states around Japan for operational use by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The system consists of an eddy-resolving analysis model based on four-dimensional variational assimilation and a high (2-km) resolution forecast model covering Japanese coastal areas that incorporates an initialization scheme with temporal and spatial filtering. Assimilation and forecast experiments were performed for 2008 to 2017, and the results were validated against various observation datasets. The assimilation results captured well the observed variability in sea surface temperature, coastal sea level, volume transport, and sea ice. Furthermore, the volume budget for the Japan Sea was significantly improved by the use of the 2-km resolution forecast model compared with the 10-km resolution analysis model. The forecast results indicate that this system has a predictive limit longer than 1 month in many areas, including in the Kuroshio current area south of Japan and the southern Japan Sea. In the forecast results of case studies, the 2017 Kuroshio large meander was well predicted, and warm water intrusions accompanying Kuroshio path variations south of Japan were also successfully reproduced. Sea ice forecasts for the Sea of Okhotsk largely captured the evolution of sea ice in late winter, but sea ice in early winter included relatively large errors. This system has high potential to meet operational requirements for monitoring and forecasting ocean phenomena at both meso- and coastal scales.
Salinity variations in restricted basins like the Baltic Sea can alter their vulnerability to hypoxia (i.e., bottom water oxygen concentrations <2 mg/l) and can affect the burial of phosphorus (P), a key nutrient for marine organisms. We combine porewater and solid-phase geochemistry, micro-analysis of sieved sediments (including XRD and synchrotron-based XAS), and foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C analyses to reconstruct the bottom water salinity, redox conditions, and P burial in the Ångermanälven estuary, Bothnian Sea. Our sediment records were retrieved during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Baltic Sea Paleoenvironment Expedition 347 in 2013. We demonstrate that bottom waters in the Ångermanälven estuary became anoxic upon the intrusion of seawater in the early Holocene, like in the central Bothnian Sea. The subsequent refreshening and reoxygenation, which was caused by gradual isostatic uplift, promoted P burial in the sediment in the form of Mn-rich vivianite. Vivianite authigenesis in the surface sediments of the more isolated part of the estuary ultimately ceased, likely due to continued refreshening and an associated decline in productivity and P supply to the sediment. The observed shifts in environmental conditions also created conditions for post-depositional formation of authigenic vivianite, and possibly apatite formation, at ~8 m composite depth. These salinity-related changes in redox conditions and P burial are highly relevant in light of current climate change. The results specifically highlight that increased freshwater input linked to global warming may enhance coastal P retention, thereby contributing to oligotrophication in both coastal and adjacent open waters. 相似文献
This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall
estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating
a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced
by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines
the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment:
(1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is
divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the
effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked
with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement
in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The
stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability.
A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is
the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment
(2,310 km2), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of
documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model
can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables
that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids
over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability
of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings. 相似文献
The spatial relationship between topography and rock uplift patterns in asymmetric mountain ranges was investigated using a stream erosion model in which the asymmetric rock uplift was given and erosion rates were proportional to the m-th power of the drainage area and the n-th power of the channel gradient. The model conditions were simple, and thus the effects of horizontal rock movement, diffusional processes, and erosion thresholds were neglected, and spatially uniform precipitation, lithology, and vegetation were assumed. In asymmetric mountain ranges, under realistic exponent conditions (m < n) and the above assumptions, the surface erosion rate is faster on the steeper side and slower on the gentler side. The topographic axis migrates away from the rock uplift axis toward the center of the mountain range owing to the contrast in erosion rates. This migration continues until the erosion is balanced with rock uplift. In a dynamic steady state, the topographic pattern is independent of the rock uplift rate as indicated by an analytical solution, and is prescribed by the rock uplift pattern and the exponents m and n. As the asymmetry of the rock uplift pattern increases, the topographic axis migrates a greater distance. The location of the topographic axis is related to the location of the rock uplift axis by a simple logarithmic function, for a wide range of m and n. The fit of the numerical results and the logarithmic function is particularly good when m = 0.5 and n = 1.0. If the rock uplift pattern in asymmetric mountain ranges is known, the value of n − 5m/4 can be constrained based on the logarithmic relation, assuming a dynamic steady state. On the other hand, if the value of n − 5m/4 is known in an asymmetric mountain range, the rock uplift pattern can be estimated directly from the topography. This relation was applied to the Suzuka Range in central Japan, and the value of n − 5m/4 was estimated for an assumed reverse fault motion. 相似文献
Monthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with observations from the INSTANT Program (2004–2006). The main goals of the comparisons are to examine the consistency and evaluate the skill of different ODA products in simulating ITF transport. The ensemble averaged, time-mean value of ODA estimates is 13.6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) for the common 1993–2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. All but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the scatter among different ODA estimates averaged over time is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. Therefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, with generally stronger (weaker) ITF during boreal summer (winter) and during La Nina (El Nino) events. The scatter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is found between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18 km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agreement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10–15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a relatively sharp increase in ITF transport during 1993–2000 associated with the strengthening tropical Pacific trade wind. Most products do not show a weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after than before 1980, reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations after the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-year period (e.g., the span of the INSTANT Program) to describe longer-term mean, we investigate the temporal variations of the three-year low-pass ODA estimates. The average variation is about 3.6 Sv, which is largely due to the increase of ITF transport from 1993 to 2000. However, the three-year average during the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period is within 0.5 Sv of the long-term mean for the past few decades. 相似文献