Can global rainfall estimates (satellite and reanalysis) aid landslide hindcasting?

Predicting rainfall-induced landslides hinges on the quality of the rainfall product. Satellite rainfall estimates or rainfall reanalyses aid in studying landslide occurrences especially in ungauged areas, or in the absence of ground-based rainfall radars. Quality of these rainfall estimates is critical; hence, they are commonly crosschecked with their ground-based counterparts. Beyond their temporal precision compared to ground-based observations, we investigate whether these rainfall estimates are adequate for hindcasting landslides, which particularly requires accurate representation of spatial variability of rainfall. We developed a logistic regression model to hindcast rainfall-induced landslides in two sites in Japan. The model contains only a few topographic and geologic predictors to leave room for different rainfall products to improve the model as additional predictors. By changing the input rainfall product, we compared GPM IMERG and ERA5 rainfall estimates with ground radar–based rainfall data. Our findings emphasize that there is a lot of room for improvement of spatiotemporal prediction of landslides, as shown by a strong performance increase of the models with the benchmark radar data attaining 95% diagnostic performance accuracy. Yet, this improvement is not met by global rainfall products which still face challenges in reliably capturing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation events.

     

Navigation message demodulation for GPS receiver on-board spinning rockets

We describe a demodulation scheme for the navigation message of GPS receivers on spin-stabilized rockets. Doppler frequencies due to fast and complex dynamics, in particular high-rate spin, cause errors in carrier frequency tracking. The effects of such errors on navigation message demodulation are described through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. A demodulation scheme that includes a frequency estimator is proposed to account for frequency tracking errors. It is demonstrated that demodulation performance is degraded 5 dB due to frequency uncertainty. Simulation results showed that a demodulator which includes maximum likelihood (ML) frequency estimator achieves near-optimal symbol error rate under these conditions. Demodulation with ML estimator achieves a bit error rate below 10^?5 for a C/N ₀?=?35 dB–Hz, for spin rates below 2.7?Hz, and a rocket radius smaller than 1 m. For the cases in which computational capabilities of the on-board GPS receiver is insufficient to implement the demodulator with ML estimator, frequency estimation methods with low complexity were also tested through numerical simulation. The proposed Kay and Quinn-Fernandes combination achieves a bit error rate below 10^?5 for a C/N ₀?=?37 dB–Hz while requiring 1/10 of processing time.     

A case study of Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices on both flanks of the Earth's magnetotail

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) is a fundamental fluid dynamical process that develops in a velocity shear layer. It is excited on the tail-flanks of the Earth's magnetosphere where the flowing magnetosheath plasma and the stagnant magnetospheric plasma sit adjacent to each other. This instability is thought to induce vortical structures and play an important role in plasma transport there. While KHI vortices have been detected, the earlier observations were performed only on one flank at a time and questions related to dawn-dusk asymmetry were not addressed. Here, we report a case where KHI vortices grow more or less simultaneously and symmetrically on both flanks, despite all the factors that may have broken the symmetry. Yet, energy distributions of ions in and around the vortices show a remarkable dawn-dusk asymmetry. Our results thus suggest that although the initiation and development of the KHI depend primarily on the macroscopic properties of the flow, the observed enhancement of ion energy transport around the dawn side vortices may be linked to microphysical processes including wave-particle interactions. Possible coupling between macro- and micro-scales, if it is at work, suggests a role for KHI not only within the Earth's magnetosphere (e.g., magnetopause and geomagnetic tail) but also in other regions where shear flows of magnetized plasma play important roles.     

Local time asymmetry in the characteristics of Pc5 magnetic pulsations

The wave characteristics of Pc5 magnetic pulsations are analyzed with data of OGO-5, ISEE-1 and -2 satellites. The toroidal modes (δB_D >δB_H) of Pc5 pulsations are observed at a higher magnetic latitude in the dawnside outer magnetosphere. The compressional and poloidal modes (δB_z.dfnc; ～ δB_H >δB_D) of Pc5 pulsations are mostly observed near the magnetic equator in the duskside outer magnetosphere. This L.T. asymmetry in the occurrence of dominant modes of Pc5's in space can be explained by the velocity shear instability (Yumoto and Saito, 1980) in the magnetospheric boundary layer, where Alfvénic signals in the IMF medium are assumed to penetrate into the magnetospheric boundary layer along the Archimedean spiral. The asymmetrical behaviour of Pc5 pulsation activity on the ground across the noon meridian can be also explained by the ionospheric screening effect on the compressional Pc5 magnetic pulsations. The compressional modes with a large horizontal wave number in the duskside magnetosphere are expected to be suppressed on the ground throughout the ionosphere and atmosphere.     

Laboratory analogy of crystalline enstatite grain formation in plasma field

Crystalline enstatite (MgSiO₃) grains were produced by the simultaneous evaporation of SiO grains and Mg vapor in a plasma field. The MgSiO₃ grains were spherical or needlelike. The necessity of a plasma field in astromineralogy is suggested in the present study.     

40Ar—39Ar ages of guyots in the western Pacific and discussion of their evolution

Summary. Six submarine rocks dredged from guyots in the western Pacific were dated by means of ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar step heating dating technique. All ages show mid- to late-Cretaceous ages in accordance with the generally supposed age of the ocean crust estimated from the magnetic anomaly pattern.
The back-tracked paths were calculated for the guyots with the use of their absolute ages, for both the Pacific plate movements proposed by Morgan and by Clague & Jarrard. In both cases these show birth places for the guyots, which are located near the equator.
Fossil ages are nearly concordant with the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages for the guyots which are older than 95 Myr, whereas the fossil ages are considerably younger than the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages for the guyots younger than 90 Myr. This contrast may be due to the world-wide marine transgression, whose climax is believed to have occurred at about 85 Myr BP.     

High-resolution records of thermocline in the Okinawa Trough since about 10000 aBP

The present paper uses planktonic foraminifera and their stable isotopes to study the changes in the depth of thermocline (DOT) in the Okinawa Trough since the last 10000 a based on the analysis of Core B-3GC in the northern Okinawa Trough, together with that of the core in the southern Okinawa Trough. As results show, the thermocline was shallow before 6400 aBP, and deepened afterward, then became shallow again from 4000 to 2000 aBP. The DOT fluctuations display a positive correlation with those of sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, the changes in the northern Okinawa Trough are similar to those in the southern trough, implying a possible connection with the variation of the Kuroshio Current. The changes of SST and DOT suggest that the Kuroshio Current changed its intensity or main axis from 4000 to 2000 aBP and around about 6400 aBP respectively. Moreover, the changes of DOT from 8200 to 6400 aBP may indicate a gradual intensification of the Kuroshio Current.     

Variation of volatile concentration in a magma system of Satsuma-Iwojima volcano deduced from melt inclusion analyses

Chemical analyses of 30 melt inclusions from Satsuma-Iwojima volcano, Japan, were carried out to investigate volatile evolution in a magma chamber beneath the volcano from about 6300 yr BP to the present. Large variations in volatile concentrations of melts were observed. (1) Water concentration of rhyolitic melts decreases with time; 3–4.6 wt.% at the time of latest caldera-forming eruption of Takeshima pyroclastic flow deposit (ca. 6300 yr BP), 3 wt.% for small pyroclastic flow (ca. 1300 yr BP) of Iwodake, post-caldera rhyolitic dome, and 0.7–1.4 wt.% for submarine lava eruption (Showa-Iwojima) in 1934. (2) Rhyolitic melts of the Takeshima and Iwodake eruptions contained CO₂ of less than 40 ppm, while the Showa-Iwojima melt has higher CO₂ concentration of up to 140 ppm. (3) Water and CO₂ concentrations of basaltic to andesitic melt of Inamuradake, a post-caldera basaltic scoria cone, are 1.2–2.8 wt.% and ≤290 ppm, respectively.Volatile evolution in the magma chamber is interpreted as follows: (1) the rhyolitic magma at the time of the latest caldera-forming eruption (ca. 6300 yr BP) was gas-saturated due to pressure variation in the magma chamber because the large variation in water concentration of the melt was attributed to exsolution of volatile in the magma prior to the eruption. Iwodake eruption (ca. 1300 yr BP) was caused by a remnant of the caldera-forming rhyolitic magma, suggested from the similarity of major element composition between these magmas. (2) Volatile composition of the Showa-Iwojima rhyolitic melt agrees with that of magmatic gases presently discharging from a summit of Iwodake, indicating the low pressure degassing condition. (3) The degassing of the magma chamber by magma convection in a conduit of Iwodake during non-eruptive but active degassing period for longer than 800 years decreased water concentration of the rhyolitic magma. (4) Geological and petrological observations indicate that a stratified magma chamber, which consists of a lower basaltic layer and an upper rhyolitic layer, might have existed during the post-caldera stage. Addition of CO₂ from the underlying basaltic magma to the upper gas-undersaturated (degassed) rhyolitic magma increased CO₂ concentration of the rhyolitic magma.