青藏高原北缘前寒武纪地质演化：进展与讨论

青藏高原北缘前寒武纪块体主要出露于塔里木盆地南缘的铁克里克和阿尔金、祁连山及柴达木盆地周缘等地区。这些古老块体分布于相对年轻的古生代秦祁昆造山带之中,大多经历了古生代造山事件的改造叠加。近10年来,对该地区前寒武纪地层时代格架、物质组成和构造属性研究取得了许多进展：1）揭示铁克里克、北阿尔金、全吉和阿拉善地块具有相似的2.5～2.2 Ga、2.1～1.7 Ga的基底演化和1.7 Ga之后的盖层沉积记录,反映塔里木克拉通、全吉地块和华北克拉通在Columbia 超大陆中具有相关和相似性。2）一系列地层时代被重新厘定,为建立新的前寒武纪地层划分方案提供了依据;3）厘定出铁克里克新元古代裂谷火山—沉积盆地,其可以与华北克拉通南缘1 000～830 Ma的裂解事件对比,它们在新元古代早期可能构成同一个克拉通裂解边缘;4）在南阿尔金与祁连、柴达木等地块识别出性质相似的新元古代岩浆作用和变质作用,它们可能共同代表一个新元古代早期活动大陆边缘的构造杂岩,为古生代汇聚、增生于塔里木克拉通或华北克拉通南缘的外来地块,存在于秦祁昆造山带之中。目前关于青藏高原北缘前寒武纪块体的物质组成、时代格架、构造属性和古环境变化研究还存在许多问题,仍需要开展进一步的大量工作。     

Correction to: Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change

Windblown dust originating in China and Mongolia causes health effects and agricultural damage in its source areas and causes Asian dust events in Japan. An early warning system that could be combined with weather forecasts would be helpful in preventing serious damage. However, it is difficult to specify source areas of dust with current dust modeling systems because land surface information, including vegetation coverage and land surface soil water content, is inadequate. To find and monitor dust source regions, a semi-real-time dust erodibility map was developed based on MODIS satellite data that focuses particularly on the threshold wind speed in a target area of northeast Asia including China and Mongolia (35°–50°N, 75°–120°E). The mapping system incorporates satellite data on snow cover, areas of frozen soil, surface soil water content, and vegetation cover.     

Rainfall threshold determination for flash flood warning in mountainous catchments with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall pattern

Flash flood disaster is a prominent issue threatening public safety and social development throughout the world, especially in mountainous regions. Rainfall threshold is a widely accepted alternative to hydrological forecasting for flash flood warning due to the short response time and limited observations of flash flood events. However, determination of rainfall threshold is still very complicated due to multiple impact factors, particular for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall patterns. In this study, hydrological simulation approach (i.e., China Flash Flood-Hydrological Modeling System: CNFF-HMS) was adopted to capture the flash flood processes. Multiple scenarios were further designed with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall temporal patterns to determine the possible assemble of rainfall thresholds by driving the CNFF-HMS. Moreover, their effects on rainfall thresholds were investigated. Three mountainous catchments (Zhong, Balisi and Yu villages) in southern China were selected for case study. Results showed that the model performance of CNFF-HMS was very satisfactory for flash flood simulations in all these catchments, especially for multimodal flood events. Specifically, the relative errors of runoff and peak flow were within?±?20%, the error of time to peak flow was within?±?2 h and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency was greater than 0.90 for over 90% of the flash flood events. The rainfall thresholds varied between 93 and 334 mm at Zhong village, between 77 and 246 mm at Balisi village and between 111 and 420 mm at Yu village. Both antecedent soil moistures and rainfall temporal pattern significantly affected the variations of rainfall threshold. Rainfall threshold decreased by 8–38 and 0–42% as soil saturation increased from 0.20 to 0.50 and from 0.20 to 0.80, respectively. The effect of rainfall threshold was the minimum for the decreasing hyetograph (advanced pattern) and the maximum for the increasing hyetograph (delayed pattern), while it was similar for the design hyetograph and triangular hyetograph (intermediate patterns). Moreover, rainfall thresholds with short time spans were more suitable for early flood warning, especially in small rural catchments with humid climatic characteristics. This study was expected to provide insights into flash flood disaster forecasting and early warning in mountainous regions, and scientific references for the implementation of flash flood disaster prevention in China.     

An agent-based evacuation model for the 2011 Brisbane City-scale riverine flood

In this study, an agent-based model is proposed in order to provide new insights into the policy analysis and strategy assessment of city-scale evacuation management. The proposed model is suitable for assessment of the influence of different departure times and communications among peer evacuees on the number of residents at risk who arrive at official shelters. A case study is applied to build a simulation model for the coastal city of Brisbane in Australia. The Brisbane River catchment experiences regular flooding almost every year; the second severest flood since the twentieth century occurred in 2011. During that event, over 15,000 properties were inundated and around 3600 households evacuated in metropolitan Brisbane alone. Making use of high-performance computing clusters, the evacuation simulation was coupled with results from a validated hydrodynamic model to test a variety of escaping scenarios based on the 2011 flood situation. This case study demonstrates the proposed model’s capacity to represent the dynamic evacuation process and also shows that the model is able to help develop flood emergency plans and evaluate response measures through exploring key elements in a range of scenarios.     

Application on Floor Water Inrush Evaluation Based on AHP Variation Coefficient Method with GIS

The prediction and prevention of floor water inrush is directly related to the safety of the coal mine production. The previous evaluation method of floor water inrush was more one-sided and lacked main control factors related to mining conditions. In order to evaluate the floor water inrush more accurately, under the project background of geological data of Wanglou coal mine, stope width, mining depth, fault scale index, water pressure, water abundance and thickness of aquifer were selected as main controlling factors of floor water inrush. Combined with the subjective weight analytical hierarchy process and the objective weight variation coefficient method, the weight coefficients corresponding to the main controlling factors were obtained respectively. The thematic map of the risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush was drawn by combining the constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model and geographic information system. The results show that: ① according to the actual geological data of mine, two fault related factors were removed. And stope width and mining depth were increased as the main controlling factors to evaluate floor water inrush. It is easier to compare and calculate the weight of evaluation factors. ② The constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model can comprehensively evaluate the risk of floor water inrush. And the results of the evaluation are more accurate. ③ The related thematic maps can directly reflect the risk of floor water inrush, which is of guiding significance for the prediction and prevention of coal seam floor water inrush.     

Regional hazard prediction of rock bursts using microseismic energy attenuation tomography in deep mining

Rock burst prediction is a worldwide challenge that we have long tried to overcome. This study tentatively proposed a method to regionally predict rock burst hazards using microseismic energy attenuation. To verify the feasibility of the proposal, first, the mechanism of microseismic energy propagation and attenuation in rock medium was explored, and dominant attenuation characteristics of microseismic waves were analyzed. Second, a spatial attenuation model of microseismic energy was established, and the average energy attenuation coefficient for each wave path was defined. A 3D seismic energy attenuation inversion algorithm was put forward, and the corresponding computation matrix was developed. Third, a continuous microseismic field investigation was carried out in a deep coal mine. Seismic energy attenuation coefficient was confirmed using the calibrated focus position and energy determination. Based on data discretization processing, energy attenuation inversion and tomography, potential rock burst hazard regions were strictly zoned in mining areas. Finally, regional prediction results obtained from the microseismic energy attenuation were compared with the direct measurement results obtained from the classical drilling dust method to verify the reliability of proposed approach. It turns out that rock burst hazard regions predicted by the microseismic energy attenuation agreed well with the objective hazardous situations. Seismic energy attenuation coefficient is a significant evaluation factor that directly mirrors the inelastic performance of rock medium. Energy attenuation coefficient threshold used for determining the rock burst hazard regions was 3.0 km^?1. Reliability of the seismic energy attenuation inversion and tomography was closely related to the spatial distribution of microseisms in a localized region. The optimum spatial density of microseisms was 0.2 m^?3. Regional rock burst prediction using microseismic energy attenuation is an effective approach for revealing potential hazardous regions in deep mining conditions. This approach improves the pertinence of geological hazard prevention and provides a beforehand reference for targeted hazard management.     

青藏铁路多年冻土区含融化夹层路基的热状态

基于青藏铁路K1496+750监测断面含融化夹层路基长达10 a的地温监测数据,分析了在气候转暖及工程活动下天然场地及路基左右路肩下多年冻土热状态年变化过程、融化夹层的年变化过程及其对多年冻土热状态的影响。结果表明：监测断面天然场地、左右路肩下多年冻土上限逐年下降,热稳定性逐年降低;观测期内,左路肩下发育有融化夹层,融化夹层厚度在波动中呈增厚趋势,且其增厚主要是由多年冻土人为上限下降所致,而天然场地及右路肩下未发育融化夹层;多年冻土上限附近土体热积累显著,进而导致多年冻土上限逐年下降及其附近土体温度逐年升高,弱化了多年冻土的热稳定性;后期增加的块石护坡和热管两种具有“主动冷却”效能的工程补强措施很好的改善了路基的热稳定性,右路肩经工程补强措施后,多年冻土人为上限得到显著抬升,热稳定性得到显著改善,而左路肩由于融化夹层的存在,工程补强措施仅仅维持了当前多年冻土热状态,融化夹层的存在一定程度上弱化了工程补强措施所产生的冷却效能。     

Dynamic Response to Seismic Waves at the Shallow Slope Supported by Bolts

In the soil slope supported by bolts, longitude waves instead of transverse waves, generated by earthquakes, first reach the slope surface. With the dynamic response of the P (pressure) wave along the anchorage structure, first, a theoretical study was conducted to investigate the propagation characteristics of the interference superposition, generated by the SV (shear-vertical) and the P waves. The SV wave was formed by the wave, originating from the bottom and reflected from the free surface of the slope, whereas the latter was the incident P wave, propagating in the slope. In addition, the structural measures, restraining the seismic wave, and the characteristics of the restraint effect at the free segment of the bolt were investigated. According to the wave-way difference between the incident P wave and the reflected SV wave, the minimum critical slope angle, influenced by the interference at the shallow slope, and the maximum influencing depth of the dynamic response, acting vertically to the slope surface, were obtained. The results indicate that the maximum influencing depth linearly correlated with the slope angle. Furthermore, based on the propagation characteristics of the P wave along the bolt, and the coupled relation between the wave length and the anchorage design parameters, the axial acceleration of the wave propagating along the bolt axis was obtained. Then, the theoretical length of the anti-seismic bolt, subjected to seismic waves, and the compensation force of the anchorage structure were obtained. Finally, a numerical study, based on FlAC3D, properly verified the theoretical conclusions.     

A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers.     

Carbon dioxide emission reduction quota allocation study on Chinese provinces based on two-stage Shapley information entropy model

Chinese central government made a commitment to achieve a 40–45% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) per unit of GDP by 2020 compared with 2005. This targeted reduction was allocated averagely among all the provinces rather than individually according to different situations of each province. Though some research has been done regarding this rough allocation, two shortcomings in previous studies exist: Firstly, CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) has been ignored as one of the CO₂ emission reduction allocation indexes. Secondly, either subjective or objective method has been used rather than comprehensively of both subjective and objective method to calculate the weight of each index in the previous studies. In order to fill the gaps, this paper builds a two-stage Shapley information entropy model to allocate CO₂ emission reduction quota among the Chinese provinces based on the equity and efficiency principles. Afterward, three CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation scenarios have been proposed. The results show that the CO₂ MAC is an indispensable index in CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation, because its value of CO₂ Shapley information entropy is the highest among five indexes. CO₂ emission reduction quota of lower-MAC provinces should be allocated larger, while the quota of higher-MAC provinces should be allocated smaller. Therefore, two suggested policies have been proposed: First, differential CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation should be proposed. Second, synergetic development should be promoted.