地震地下流体物理化学动态形成的基础理论问题

本文以８０年代国内外学者在地下流体的流体动力学、热动力学与化学动力学领域的探索中所取得的理论成果为基础，针对地震地下流体的压力、温度与化学组分动态观测与研究现状，从理论上阐述了地下流体物理化学各项动态形成的机制及其内在联系，以促进我国地震地下流体动态的基础理论研究。     

水位波动信息在含水层中传播特性的实验研究

本文通过一系列水动力学模型实验，探讨了水位波动信息在含水层中传播的特性。实验结果表明，水位波动信息在含水层中传播时发生幅度衰减、时间滞后乃至形态变异等复杂现象，其特征同含水介质的类型、波动信息的频率与传播距离等有关。这样的结果，对地下水位映震条件、映震特征与映震机制的深入研究，提供了有益的启示。     

首都圈地区前兆台址地质条件对其映震能力影响的统计分析

本文系统收集了首都圈地区38个形变类观测台、29个地下水类观测井与15个电磁类观测台的地质—水文地质条件,并根据1976—1989年间5个中强地震前的58个台项的异常,逐项统计分析了台址地质—水文地质条件对其映震能力的影响。得到的认识是,影响地形变类台站映震能力的主要地质条件是构造单元、邻近断裂的走向、距离、活动时代与台基地层岩性;影响地下水类观测井映震能力的主要条件是构造单元、邻近断裂的走向、距离、部位、井深、含水层的地层岩性与地下水类型;影响地电磁类台站映震能力的主要条件是构造单元、新生界盖层的结构与厚度、表土岩性、基底岩性与壳内高导层顶面埋深等。     

航天摄影测量学的崛起

本文提出一个新学科航天摄影测量学。自飞机问世后,航空遥感摄影技术与测量学的结合,产生了航空摄影测量学,航天遥感发展的今天与摄影测量学相结合必将产生航天摄影测量学。陆地卫星获取了大量图象,具备了测制中、小比例尺地图。本文介绍从卫星轨道上获取任意时刻卫星坐标的公式,确定象片的外方位元素。在不同轨道上摄取立体象对,用空间后方交会建立立体模型,实行相对定向、绝对定向和测绘地形图的方法。     

Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

     

汶川地震前井水温度异常信息的识别及其特征

通过对我国地震地热台网273口观测井的水温数据进行梳理,发现汶川地震前有10口井记录到客观的异常现象;而这些井的异常信息的持续时间、幅度、空间分布极其复杂,决定了利用这些异常信息进行汶川地震三要素的准确预测还不太现实,但也发现一些有一定科学价值的认识:空间上井震距1000km范围内集中了大部分异常点;异常幅度集中在千分之几到百分之几度;时间上异常具有短临性质,呈现出井震距越大持续时间越短、井震距越小持续时间越长的规律;自流井记录到的异常概率远高于静水位井,不过干井也可以记录到异常信息。通过数据梳理与分析,提出了水温异常取决于井-含水层结构以及观测井所处的水系单元位置这一认识。     

The Anomaly Field of Subsurface Fluids and Its Formation and Evolution Mechanism Before Three Strong Earthquakes in the Northern North China Area

The data of pre-seismic subsurface fluid anomalies of such earthquakes as Datong-YanggaoM_s6.1 event on Oct.19,1989,western Baotou M_s6.4 event on May 3,1996 and Zhangbei-Shangyi M_s6.2 event on Jan.10,1998 are systematically collected and arranged.Then thefeatures of patterns,spatial distribution,time variation and time-spatial evolution of theseanomalies are compared and comprehensively analyzed.Then the formation and evolutionmechanism of medium-and short-term anomaly field of subsurface fluids in the northernNorth China area is proposed.The results show that the medium-term anomaly field is causedby regional tectonic activities,which further strengthen the local tectonic activities andpromote the formation and evolution of the seismic source body.The enhancement of loealtectonic activities causes the formation of anomaly field of short-term subsurface fluids,andthe evolution of source body engenders the source-precursor anomalies of subsurface fluids inthe epicenters at imminent stage.     

地下水对震源体应力、应变场的影响——以唐山地震为例

通过数值模拟 ,研究渗流场和应力场相互作用 ,了解在震源区地下水对应力场和应变场的影响。结果表明 ,岩石的抗剪强度及摩擦阻力随孔隙压力的增加而降低 ,孔隙压力使应变分布发生变化 ,断层及其附近剪切应力升高。地下水的这些效应可能与地震震源过程有关     

我国地震地下流体前兆观测的"九五"进展与台站管理体制的改革意向

主要介绍了我国在“九五”期间实施的前兆台站流体测项的数字化中推广的仪器型号、主要性能指标及改造的规模,观测取得的成果及其有待完善的技术问题;简要介绍了我国长江三峡工程诱发地震监测系统中地下水动态监测井网的布设,观测井下地下水特征,数字化观测技术系统及建设的基本结果;最后介绍了流体学科前兆台站分级分类管理的改革意向。