Determination of kolmogorov entropy of chaotic attractor included in one—dimensional time series of meteorological data

The 1970-1985 day to day averaged pressure dataset of Shanghai and the extension method in phase space are used to calculate the correlation dimension D and the second-order Renyi entropy K2 of the approximation of Kolmogorov’s entropy, the fractional dimension D = 7.7~7.9 and the positive value K2 ≈ 0.1 are obtained. This shows that the attractor for the short-term weather evolution in the monsoon region of China exhibits a chaotic mo-tion. The estimate of K2 yields a predictable time scale of about ten days. This result is in agreement with that ob-tained earlier by the dynamic-statistical approach.The effects of the lag time τ on the estimate of D and K2 are investigated. The results show that D and K2 are convergent with respect to τ. The day to day averaged pressure series used in this paper are treated for the extensive phase space with τ = 5, the coordinate components are independent of each other; therefore, the dynamical character quantities of the system are stable and reliable.     

业务模式晴雨预报能力分析及其改进方法研究

以欧洲中心全球预报模式和中国华南区域中尺度模式(GZ 3 km)为例分析了2019年中国南方逐日晴雨预报的情况,并讨论模式晴雨预报的性能。借助TS检验评估方法,在与简单外推预报等的比较中,发现模式雨量预报特点及模式晴雨预报的统计规律,如两个模式同时预报晴天,或者模式预报有雨且降水量大于某阈值等情况,其预报准确率非常高;而对于两个模式预报不一致,或模式预报有雨且雨量较小等情况,则存在较大不确定性。基于上述研究,提出利用模式预报改进观测外推和利用观测与模式的频率匹配改进模式预报等方法。     

A New Method for Calculating the Wind Speed Distribution of a Moving Tropical Cyclone

Based on gradient wind equations,including frictional force,and considering the effect of the movement of a tropical cyclone on wind speed,the Fujita Formula is improved and further simplified,and the numerical scheme for calculating the maximum wind speed radius and wind velocity distribution of a moving tropical cyclone is derived.In addition,the effect of frictional force on the internal structure of the tropical cyclone is discussed.By comparison with observational data,this numerical scheme demonstrate...     

Geometry of the Nojima Fault at Nojima-Hirabayashi, Japan – II. Microstructures and their Implications for Permeability and Strength

Samples of damage-zone granodiorite and fault core from two drillholes into the active, strike-slip Nojima fault zone display microstructures and alteration features that explain their measured present-day strengths and permeabilities and provide insight on the evolution of these properties in the fault zone. The least deformed damage-zone rocks contain two sets of nearly perpendicular (60–90° angles), roughly vertical fractures that are concentrated in quartz-rich areas, with one set typically dominating over the other. With increasing intensity of deformation, which corresponds generally to increasing proximity to the core, zones of heavily fragmented rock, termed microbreccia zones, develop between prominent fractures of both sets. Granodiorite adjoining intersecting microbreccia zones in the active fault strands has been repeatedly fractured and locally brecciated, accompanied by the generation of millimeter-scale voids that are partly filled with secondary minerals. Minor shear bands overprint some of the heavily deformed areas, and small-scale shear zones form from the pairing of closely spaced shear bands. Strength and permeability measurements were made on core collected from the fault within a year after a major (Kobe) earthquake. Measured strengths of the samples decrease regularly with increasing fracturing and fragmentation, such that the gouge of the fault core and completely brecciated samples from the damage zone are the weakest. Permeability increases with increasing disruption, generally reaching a peak in heavily fractured but still more or less cohesive rock at the scale of the laboratory samples. Complete loss of cohesion, as in the gouge or the interiors of large microbreccia zones, is accompanied by a reduction of permeability by 1-2 orders of magnitude below the peak values. The core samples show abundant evidence of hydrothermal alteration and mineral precipitation. Permeability is thus expected to decrease and strength to increase somewhat in active fault strands between earthquakes, as mineral deposits progressively seal fractures and fill pore spaces.     

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10Be in marine sediments

The depth profile of the long-lived radionuclide¹⁰Be in a marine sediment recovered in the vicinity of the Samoan Islands has been precisely assayed with a highly sensitive needle-type gas counter. The obtained irregular pattern of¹⁰Be concentrations with depths ranging from 4.7 to 0.3 dpm/kg dry sediment is interpreted as being due to dilution of¹⁰Be by volcanic eruptions in the past.     

Year-round accumulation of particulate organic matter in the estuarine turbidity maximum: comparative observations in three macrotidal estuaries (Chikugo, Midori, and Kuma Rivers), southwestern Japan

The inner part of the Ariake Sea is one of the most productive estuarine systems in Japan. To examine potential food items for estuarine organisms, we conducted monthly observations of the dynamics of particulate organic matter along the macrotidal Chikugo River estuary in 2005 and 2006. In the neighboring macrotidal Midori and Kuma River estuaries, comparative observations were made. High turbidity and strong vertical mixing were observed only at low salinities (<10) in the Chikugo River estuary. In contrast, the Midori and Kuma River estuaries were characterized by less turbid and less mixed waters. Concentrations of particulate organic carbon often exceeded 5?mg?l^?1 in or close to the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) of the Chikugo River estuary. However, such high concentrations were rarely observed in the other two estuaries. The observed differences could be attributable to different hydrodynamic processes related to the different lengths of tidal reaches: 23, 8, and 6?km in the Chikugo, Midori, and Kuma Rivers, respectively. In the Chikugo River estuary, spatiotemporal changes of chlorophyll a suggested that phytoplankton occurred abundantly up- and/or downstream from the ETM especially during the warm season. In contrast, pheophytin (i.e., plant detritus) always accumulated in or close to the ETM. Carbon stable isotope ratios and carbon to nitrogen ratios indicated that the plant detritus was derived from phytoplankton and terrestrial plants. The Chikugo River estuary has a high potential to support the production of estuarine organisms through abundant plant detritus in the well-developed ETM all the year round.     

基于GPS\BD2组合的车载导航系统性能分析

中国独立发展的北斗系统已经具备亚太地区的定位导航能力,为研究以北斗系统为主的车载导航技术的应用精度,采用伪距单点定位的方法分别对车载GPS,BD2,GPS\BD2 3种导航模式下的二维导航精度进行对比分析,结果显示定位精度分别为:3.66m,4.76 m,3.01 m,可以看出基于单点定位的北斗二维平面导航精度已达到5 m内,完全满足大众日常的出行要求。组合系统与GPS导航系统对比,组合系统具有更高的精度,是较好的导航模式。并基于visual studio平台编写定位软件,实现对车辆位置和速度信息的提取,监控车辆是否超速。