兰州市城区大气烟尘污染的变化与气象条件分析

利用1961-2001年有烟日观测资料，统计分析了41年中，兰州市城区大气受烟尘污染的变化。结果表明：1961～1984年污染日在119-201天问徘徊；1985-1988年是污染“严重期”，年平均污染日达224天；1996-2001年为显著“好转期”，年平均污染日66天。一年中主要污染段是1月和11、12月，污染日占全年的49％。在污染日，大气水平能见度具有明显的日变化，能见度最差，污染最严重的时间是11～14时。     

基于层次分析法和GIS的西昌市空间形态变化特征研究

城市空间形态变化研究涉及到自然条件、资源分布、人类活动、社会经济发展等诸多方面,运用层次分析法对复杂因素构成的整体问题进行层次分解和重新构造,建立多目标的综合评价指标体系和模型。以西昌市为例,将影响城市化发展和空间形态发展变化的特征因子概括分解为自然因子和人类活动因子两大类,并基于DEM数据分别提取出坡度、相对高程、坡向、地面粗糙度数据,利用两个不同时期的遥感数据求取出土地变化率数据,从而作为分析西昌市空间形态变化特征的驱动力因子。结合层次分析法计算出来的5个因子权重值,在ArcGIS 9.3中利用栅格计算器进行叠置分析,求取出西昌市空间形态变化模式趋势图和空间发展模式分类图。     

天然气水合物地质地球化学特征及其勘查

天然气水合物属于一种特殊的非常规天然气资源,其资源潜力巨大,不仅是常规天然气资源的重要补充和替代物,亦是一种新型的低碳绿色高效能源。根据天然气水合物形成的特殊地质条件及分布富集规律,深入剖析了全球天然气水合物的地质地球化学特征及成因类型与气源构成特点,全面总结了世界天然气水合物勘查技术方法和研究进展。同时,亦对我国天然气水合物勘查成果与研究进展进行了分析总结。     

塔里木盆地东部地区寒武系白云岩成因类型*

塔里木盆地东部地区（简称塔东地区）寒武系白云岩主要有泥-粉晶白云岩、细晶白云岩和中-粗晶白云岩。通过岩石学特征、有序度、碳氧同位素、锶同位素比值、阴极发光和微量元素等分析,认为该地区有4种成因的白云岩,即深水回流准同生白云岩、潮坪蒸发泵准同生白云岩、回流渗透白云岩以及深埋藏白云岩。不同类型的白云岩,其岩性及地球化学特征不同。深水回流准同生白云岩为泥-粉晶白云岩,分布在塔东盆地中,是附近的碳酸盐岩台地上蒸发浓缩形成的咸化海水在重力作用下沿海底回流到深水盆地中并使刚沉积不久的灰泥发生白云化而形成的。潮坪蒸发泵准同生白云岩亦为泥-粉晶白云岩,形成于台地潮坪环境。回流渗透白云岩为细晶白云岩,发育于潮坪准同生白云岩和蒸发岩之下。深埋藏白云岩为中-粗晶白云岩,是石灰岩在地下深处由循环流动的富含Mg²⁺、Ca²⁺的地层水白云化形成的,Mg²⁺、Ca²⁺主要来自于已经存在的白云岩的溶蚀,而非来自页岩压实排替出来的地层水。     

A comparative study of numerical approaches to risk assessment of contaminant transport

In risk analysis, a complete characterization of the concentration distribution is necessary to determine the probability of exceeding a threshold value. The most popular method for predicting concentration distribution is Monte Carlo simulation, which samples the cumulative distribution function with a large number of repeated operations. In this paper, we first review three most commonly used Monte Carlo (MC) techniques: the standard Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube sampling, and Quasi Monte Carlo. The performance of these three MC approaches is investigated. We then apply stochastic collocation method (SCM) to risk assessment. Unlike the MC simulations, the SCM does not require a large number of simulations of flow and solute equations. In particular, the sparse grid collocation method and probabilistic collocation method are employed to represent the concentration in terms of polynomials and unknown coefficients. The sparse grid collocation method takes advantage of Lagrange interpolation polynomials while the probabilistic collocation method relies on polynomials chaos expansions. In both methods, the stochastic equations are reduced to a system of decoupled equations, which can be solved with existing solvers and whose results are used to obtain the expansion coefficients. Then the cumulative distribution function is obtained by sampling the approximate polynomials. Our synthetic examples show that among the MC methods, the Quasi Monte Carlo gives the smallest variance for the predicted threshold probability due to its superior convergence property and that the stochastic collocation method is an accurate and efficient alternative to MC simulations.     

Seasonal variation of fluxes and distributions of dissolved methane in the North Yellow Sea

The concentrations and sea-to-air fluxes of dissolved methane (CH₄) were investigated in the North Yellow Sea during August 2006, January, April and October 2007. Dissolved CH₄ concentrations showed obvious seasonal variation, with maximum values occurring in summer and lowest values occurring in winter. The saturations of dissolved CH₄ in surface waters ranged from 78.7% to 1679.7% with an average of 252.4%. The estimated atmospheric CH₄ fluxes using the Liss and Merlivat (LM86), and Wanninkhof formulae (W92) were (4.2±4.7), (11.6±10.3), (8.5±12.7) and (0.2±1.0), and (6.9±7.3), (14.6±22.3), (13.8±14.3) and (0.4±1.7) μmol·(m² d)⁻¹, respectively, for spring, summer, autumn and winter. Based on the average annual atmospheric CH₄ flux and the area of the North Yellow Sea, the annual CH₄ emission was estimated to be (2.4×10⁻²–4.2×10⁻²) Tg a⁻¹, which suggests that the North Yellow Sea was a net source of atmospheric CH₄.     

运城震群序列及其震相特征——华北地区遥测地震台网联网论文续四

利用临汾无线遥测地震台网的记录资料,探讨了运城震群活动的序列特征,对震群活动的震相记录特征进行了较全面的总结和分析.