Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

飞机下投探空在台风探测中的应用

在海洋探测方面,利用飞机进行下投探空拥有巨大的潜力去弥补全球高空探测网的空白。台风形成后,飞机飞入台风中心或绕台风飞行,下投配有全球卫星定位(GPS)装置的"探空仪",探空仪上安装有温度、气压、湿度传感器,通过GPS定位测风,对台风实施立体观测。多年来,飞机下投探空能够充分掌握台风的整体气象要素分布结构,从而提高对台风强度和移动路径等预报的准确性,飞机下投探空在国际上已经从科学试验转变成业务应用,并且形成新型的探测技术——目标观测。本文主要总结了国际上利用飞机搭载下投式探空仪进行台风探测的发展历程,为我国开展下投探空,特别是台风监测提供可借鉴的经验。     

准噶尔盆地油气源、油气分布与油气系统

准噶尔盆地是中国西部典型的多旋回叠合盆地,发育有石炭系、二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系、白垩系和古近系6套烃源岩,同时存在6大类原油和3大类天然气,广泛分布于盆地不同地区。西北缘原油总体相似,碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰),胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、三环萜烷、伽马蜡烷丰富,甾烷以C_(28)、C_(29)为主,基本没有重排甾烷,为第二类原油,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩。腹部绝大多数原油与西北缘原油相似,但胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、伽马蜡烷等有差异,来源于不同凹陷的二叠系湖相烃源岩;少量原油碳同位素组成重(δ~(13)C-28‰~-26‰),Pr/Ph大于2.5,三环萜烷以C_(19)、C_(20)为主,藿烷丰富而伽马蜡烷极低,以C_(29)规则甾烷及重排甾烷为主,为第四类原油,来源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩。东部存在5种类型原油,第一类原油碳同位素组成特别重(δ~(13)C-26‰),来源于石炭系烃源岩;第二类原油与腹部地区绝大多数原油十分相似,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩;第三类原油碳同位索组成轻,重排甾烷、Ts、C_(29)Ts及C_(30)重排藿烷异常丰富,来源于中上三叠统湖相烃源岩;第四类原油源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩;混合类原油为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系原油的混合,各自贡献平均分别为20%、15%和65%。南缘存在4类典型原油,为第二、第四、第五和第六类原油,其中第二、第四类分别源于二叠系和侏罗系;第五类原油碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰)、Pr/Ph1.0、伽马蜡烷丰富且有两个异构体、Ts、C_(29)Ts、C_(30)重排藿烷、C_(27)~C_(29)异胆甾烷及C_(30)甲基甾烷丰富,来源于白垩系湖相烃源岩;第六类原油主要为中低成熟原油,碳同位素组成δ~(13)C~28‰~-26‰,C_(27)、C_(28)、C_(29)甾烷呈"V"型分布,甲藻甾烷异常丰富,来源于古近系湖相烃源岩。准噶尔盆地天然气有油型气、混合气和煤型气,前两类主要来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩和石炭系海相烃源岩,煤型气主要来源于石炭系和侏罗系煤系烃源岩。不同类型油气分布与不同时代烃源灶具有良好对应关系:石炭系油气主要分布于陆东-五彩湾;二叠系油气主要分布于西北缘、腹部与东部;三叠系原油仅分布于东部;侏罗系原油主要分布于东部与南部;白垩系原油仅分布于南缘中部;古近系原油仅分布于南缘西部。按照盆地构造特征及不同时代烃源灶与油气关系,将准噶尔盆地划分为西部、中部、东部、南部及乌伦古5个油气系统及15个子油气系统。     

内蒙古东乌旗早二叠世超镁铁岩的发现及其构造意义

为研究东乌旗晚古生代地幔性质和造山演化特征,对在东乌旗西部首次发现的超镁铁岩—辉闪橄榄岩进行系统的岩相学和元素地球化学研究。东乌旗辉闪橄榄岩主要由橄榄石、角闪石、斜方辉石及少量斜长石、单斜辉石组成,SiO_2含量介于42.84%~43.96%、MgO(24.10%~26.10%)、Na_2O+K_2O(1.52%~2.32%,小于3.5%),低m/f(3.03~3.54)比值和高FeO~T(12.67%~14.33%)的含量、高Mg~#(76.42~79.20),属铁质超镁铁岩和拉斑玄武岩系列。岩石稀土总量较高(∑REE=39.57×10~(-6)~83.32×10~(-6)),轻稀土(LREE)相对于重稀土(HREE)明显富集[(La/Yb)_N=4.04~7.66],Eu异常不明显(δEu=0.90~0.95),稀土元素球粒陨石标准化配分模式表现为轻稀土相对富集的右倾型。岩石富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)Cs、Rb、Ba、Sr、K等,相对亏损高场强元素(HFSE)Nb、Ta,具明显的Nb、Ta、Ti负异常,而又有别于强烈Nb、Ta亏损的岛弧岩浆岩;相容元素Cr(769×10~(-6)~2480×10~(-6))、Ni(454×10~(-6)~901×10~(-6))含量较高;低Th/U(2.54~3.03)、Nb/U(3.40~12.85)比值和高La/Nb(2.60~3.63)、Ba/Nb(43.11~72.52)、Zr/Y(5.45~7.83)比值。综上,结合区域最新研究成果,我们认为辉闪橄榄岩来源于受俯冲流体交代的尖晶石相地幔橄榄岩部分熔融,上升过程中受地壳物质不同程度的混染,形成于早二叠世板内伸展构造体制,与古亚洲洋闭合之后板内非造山作用有关。这一认识填补了早二叠世幔源岩浆事件和非造山阶段超镁铁质岩石记录的空白。     

Assessment of Kalpana-1 Rainfall Product over Indian Meteorological Sub-Divisions During the Summer Monsoon Season

In this paper, Kalpana-1 derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates are compared with two multisatellite rainfall products namely, TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface rain gauge (SRG)-based rainfall at meteorological sub-divisional scale over India. The performance of the summer monsoon rainfall of 2013 over Indian meteorological sub-divisions is assessed at different temporal scales. Comparison of daily accumulated rainfall over India from IMSRA shows a linear correlation of 0.72 with TMPA-3B42 and 0.70 with GSMaP estimates. IMSRA is capable to pick up daily rainfall variability over the monsoon trough region as compared to TMPA-3B42 and GSMaP products, but underestimates moderate to heavy rainfall events. Satellite-derived rainfall maps at meteorological sub-divisional scales are in reasonably good agreement with IMD-SRG based rainfall maps with some exceptions. However, IMSRA performs better than GSMaP product at meteorological sub-divisional scale and comparable with TMPA data. All the satellite-derived rainfall products underestimate orographic rainfall along the west coast, the Himalayan foothills and over the northeast India and overestimate rainfall over the southeast peninsular India. Overall results suggest that IMSRA estimates have potential for monsoon rainfall monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub-divisions and can be used for various hydro-meteorological applications.     

Assessing Performance of Tomo-SAR and Backscattering Coefficient for Hemi-Boreal Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation

Tomo-SAR technique has been used for hemi-boreal forest height and further forest biomass estimation through allometric equation. Backscattering coefficient especially in longer wavelength (L- or P-band) is thought as a useful parameter for hemi-boreal forest biomass retrieval. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of vertical backscattering power and backscattering coefficient for hemi-boreal forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with airborne P-band data. The test site locates in southern Sweden called Remningstorp test site, and the in-situ forest AGB ranges from 14 t/ha to 245 t/ha at stand level. Multi-baseline P-band Pol-InSAR data in repeat-path mode collected during March and May in 2007 at Remningstorp test site was used. We found that the correlation coefficient (R) between backscattering coefficient of P-band HH polarization and the in-situ forest biomass reached 0.87. The R for P-band VV backscattering power at 5 m is 0.71 and 10 m is 0.72. Backscattering coefficient in HH polarization and vertical backscattering power at 5 m and 10 m were applied to construct a model for hemi-boreal forest AGB estimation by backward step-wise regression and cross-validation approach. The results showed that the estimated forest AGB ranges from 19 to 240 t/ha, and the constructed model obtained a higher R and smaller RMSE, the value of R is 0.91, RMSE is 30.43 t/ha at Remningstorp test site.     

Practical Application of 3D Visualization Using Geotechnical Database: A Case Study Karsiyaka (Izmir) Settlement Area (Turkey)

3D geographic information system software’s (GIS) are widely used in engineering geology applications. This study was performed in the Karsiyaka settlement area for the preparation of engineering geological maps and evaluation of geological structures. Firstly, topographic maps digitized with Arcview GIS 3.2. Engineering geological maps were prepared using site works and digitized with the Rockworks 2006 programme and later stored in GIS-based computer systems. 3D modelling analysis and assessment using a geotechnical database is important to assist decision-making for land use and metro subway line planning, construction site selection, selection of water sources, etc. In this respect, the sub-surface of the study area is fully 3D visualized and useful soil class zonation maps for different depths maps are performed to be used in further studies. At last, after research at this site, the construction applications of Karsiyaka have multiplied.     

Estimation of Above Ground Biomass for Central Indian Deciduous Forests Using ALOS PALSAR L-Band Data

Reliable and accurate estimates of tropical forest above ground biomass (AGB) are important to reduce uncertainties in carbon budgeting. In the present study we estimated AGB of central Indian deciduous forests of Madhya Pradesh (M.P.) state, India, using Advanced Land Observing Satellite – Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS-PALSAR) L-band data of year 2010 in conjunction with field based AGB estimates using empirical models. Digital numbers of gridded 1?×?1° dual polarization (HH & HV) PALSAR mosaics for the study area were converted to normalized radar cross section (sigma naught - σ⁰). A total of 415 sampling plots (0.1 ha) data collected over the study area during 2009–10 was used in the present study. Plot-level AGB estimates using volume equations representative to the study area were computed using field inventory data. The plot-level AGB estimates were empirically modeled with the PALSAR backscatter information in HH, HV and their ratios from different forest types of the study area. The HV backscatter information showed better relation with field based AGB estimates with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.509 which was used to estimate spatial AGB of the study area. Results suggested a total AGB of 367.4 Mt for forests of M.P. state. Further, validation of the model was carried out using observed vs. predicted AGB estimates, which suggested a root mean square error (RMSE) of ±19.32 t/ha. The model reported robust and defensible relation for observed vs. predicted AGB values of the study area.     

利用Abel-Poisson径向基函数模型化局部重力场

多种类型高分辨率重力场数据的不断增加,使得在局部范围内精化重力场模型成为了可能。本文采用Abel-Poisson核将重力场量表示成有限个径向基函数线性求和的形式,对局部区域的多种重力场数据进行联合建模。为了提高运算速度,运用了基于自适应精化格网算法的最小均方根误差准则(RMS)来求解径向基函数平均带宽。以南海核心地区为例,联合两种不同类型、不同分辨率的重力场资料(大地水准面起伏6'×6'、重力异常2'×2'),构建了局部区域高分辨率的重力场模型。所建模型表示的重力场参量达到了2'×2'的分辨率,对原始的重力异常数据(2'×2')拟合的符合程度达到±0.8×10-5m/s2。结果表明,利用径向基函数方法进行局部重力场建模,避免了球谐函数建模收敛慢的问题,有效提高了模型表示重力场的分辨率。     

基于 CCD 方法的超高层建筑周日摆动监测研究

对超高层建筑塔体进行周日摆动监测,为施工投点纠偏和选择合适投点时机提供科学依据,是施工控制网竖向传递的核心问题。文中针对现有方法在自动化采集及实时表达方面的不足,基于自适应阈值激光光斑中心定位方法,自主研发基于CCD的塔体摆动监测系统,并采用倾斜仪方法与之做同步比较研究。两种方法在广州市东塔施工第三方监测中互为检核验证,具有借鉴意义。