1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。     

风云卫星数据服务评价指标的验证分析

简述了目前我国风云卫星数据服务以及气象服务效益评估业务的现状,利用层次分析法提出风云卫星数据服务评价的6个1级指标和19个2级指标。设计了风云卫星数据服务评测量表,并采用分半信度、因子分析等方法对量表作信度和效度分析,结果表明所设计的评测量表具有良好的信度和效度,确定了包括服务平台易用性、服务流程规范性、服务响应及时性、服务内容完整性、服务工作主动性、服务宣传广泛性等6个方面的风云卫星数据服务评价指标。     

上海市PM_(10)浓度四季遥感模型研究

通过分析2001—2012年上海市PM_(10)浓度(由API(Air Pollution Index)转化得到)的变化规律,构建了上海市PM_(10)浓度的遥感反演模型。结果表明:1)上海市PM_(10)浓度存在季节性变化,应分别建立遥感反演模型。2)分析MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)产品与PM_(10)浓度之间的相关性发现,AOD须经过垂直和湿度订正才可与PM_(10)建立较好的关系。3)结合垂直和湿度订正分别建立的上海市PM_(10)浓度春夏秋冬四季的遥感反演模型均通过了拟合度检验,其中春季模型采用指数函数、夏季和秋季模型采用二次多项式函数、冬季采用幂函数、全年采用二次多项式函数,利用此四季模型反演上海市PM_(10)浓度具有较高的可信度。     

青藏高原晚始新世干旱化事件：改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素的记录

改则盆地位于青藏高原腹地,盆地内沉积物记录了高原古环境变化的重要信息。本文对改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素进行研究,结果显示改则盆地中-晚始新世的演化分为两个阶段:1中始新世湿润气候下开放湖盆阶段:虽然碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值在43层处向正值偏移,但整体~(18)O和~(13)C强烈亏损,并且该时期碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C变化相关系数为R~2=0.082。表明该阶段的研究区虽然经历过短期蒸发作用增强或补给水减少,但整体是气候湿润条件下补给水丰富的开放型湖盆。2晚始新世干旱气候下封闭湖盆阶段:经过中新世晚期(63层)气候和湖泊水文状态的过渡,晚始新世~(18)O和~(13)C同位素富集,δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C值变化相关系数为R~2=0.7762。表明该阶段气候干旱,蒸发作用强烈,湖盆萎缩成为封闭湖盆。综合前人研究,认为青藏高原腹地及北缘、东北缘在晚始新世存在明显的区域性干旱化事件。对比分析青藏高原隆升、全球气候记录、全球海水Sr和大气CO_2记录,认为青藏高原腹地和北部的干旱化事件主要受青藏高原隆升的影响。     

松辽盆地西缘早白垩世伸展事件：流纹岩锆石U Pb年龄、地球化学研究

为研究松辽盆地西缘大兴安岭早白垩世火山岩的构造属性,对研究区内流纹岩开展锆石U-Pb测年和地球化学测定。锆石U-Pb定年结果显示,流纹岩形成于131.6±0.6~123.9±1.7Ma,属早白垩世。主量元素分析表明,流纹岩具高硅(SiO_2=69.08%~79.58%)、富碱(K_2O+Na_2O=5.93%~9.76%,平均为8.14),富钾(K_2O/Na_2O大于1.0,平均为2.14)、贫钙镁(平均CaO为0.60、MgO为0.27)和高FeOT/MgO(平均为6.77)比值的特征,属过铝质(A/CNK=1.35~1.78)高钾钙碱性—钾玄武岩系列岩石。据微量元素地球化学特征将其划分为两组:Ⅰ组流纹岩稀土元素总量较高(∑REE介于149.04×10~(-6)~213.18×10~(-6)之间,平均为172.35×10~(-6)),轻稀土元素(LREE)富集、轻重稀土元素分馏较强[(La/Yb)_N=4.89~11.87,平均为7.75)],中等—弱负铕异常(δEu=0.54~0.88,平均为0.70),配分曲线右倾模式,强烈富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)Rb,Ba,Th,K和亏损高场强元素(HFSE)_Nb,Ta,P和Ti;Ⅱ组流纹岩以稀土总量(∑REE平均为142.60×10~(-6))相对较低,具相对较强的负铕异常(δEu=0.05~0.46,平均为0.27),配分曲线相对较平缓以及Ba,Sr,P,Ti元素的强烈亏损与Ⅰ组流纹岩相区别,两组流纹岩地球化学成分相关性较好,二者均有低的Sr(206×10~(-6))和高Yb(大于2)含量,具壳源和造山后花岗岩的特征。结合最新资料及本文研究成果,初步认为研究区流纹岩为地壳部分熔融的产物,之后经历强烈的矿物分离结晶作用,与蒙古—鄂霍次克造山后伸展作用有关。     

清水河流域1978-2010年土地利用变化时空特征

通过对1978年、1998年和2010年3期遥感影像目视解译获得3期土地利用数据,分析清水河流域1978－2010年土地利用变化时空特征。研究表明：清水河流域1978－2010年期间,农用地、难利用地面积持续减少,林地、建设用地面积持续增加,草地面积先有所减少后增多,除林地以外其它土地类型变化幅度后期都较前期大;流域土地利用转移方向主要是农用地转为低、中、高覆盖度草地、林地和建设用地,中覆盖度草地转为低、高覆盖度草地和林地,低覆盖度草地转为中、高覆盖度草地、林地。结果表明,近年来清水河流域水土保持措施效果明显。     

植被生物量高光谱遥感监测研究进展

植被生物量的评估对于研究全球碳循环具有重大意义,而高光谱遥感技术为精确反演地表属性提供了重要的数据支持。针对如何更好地应用高光谱遥感技术进行植被生物量精确反演的问题,该文详细阐述了国内外应用高光谱技术估测植被生物量的研究进展。对反演植被生物量所涉及的数据源、反演模型的构建方法及其模型特点、反演模型应用对象等内容进行了综合评述,并通过分析认为,高光谱遥感技术较传统的多光谱遥感技术在生物量反演精度上有了显著的提高。同时,对建模方法、多源遥感数据融合以及模型通用性等方面的研究进行了展望,以达到在大尺度范围内对植被生物量进行准确反演的目的。     

Evaluating urban public facilities of Shenzhen by application of open source data

Abstract

This article applies open source data of public facilities through data mining, not only to evaluate the public facilities from an objective dimension, but also to reflect the sensory opinions of the group factually, eventually realizing the evaluation measurement of urban public facilities. The research takes Shenzhen city as an empirical case and chooses typical public facilities to mine data, resolve address and weight to explore the application of public facilities evaluation under dimension reduction of open source data. The empirical study consists of three parts. First, as the objective evaluation, we estimate the density distribution and per capita of public facility through data mining and address resolution. Second, as the subjective evaluation, we carry on the location analysis to high-score public facility through attention and satisfaction data of Internet evaluation. Finally, as mentioned above, we calculate the weight of objective and subjective evaluation of public facility, eventually formatting the comprehensive evaluation of public facilities.     

Risk Prediction of Tunnel Water or Mud Inrush Based on Disaster Forewarning Grading

Water or mud inrush can not only hamper the normal construction of tunnel, but also cause severe casualties and property losses. Through the cause analysis and statistical theory, a total of 9 predictors based on 3 factors, the engineering geology, hydrogeology and construction, were put forward to control the happening of water or mud inrush. Based on the classification principles of forewarning, 3 alert levels, red, orange and yellow, were established. Using the AHP–TOPSIS evaluation theory, the risk prediction model of water or mud inrush was built based on the classification of disaster forewarning. The model was used in the diversion project of Fujian Long Jin–xi and achieved good effects.     

Shield Tunneling in Rock–Soil Interface Composite Formations

With increased demand for the tunnel construction in rock–soil interface composite formations, the influence on surrounding environment especially the excavation face instability during construction and ground settlement in the long term has gained great attention. The researches about environmental disturbance by shield tunneling construction in single ground as the soil or rock conditions have been developed continuously. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of the interaction between rock–soil interface composite formations and shield machines, works on these special conditions have not been carried out sufficiently. In this paper the theoretical, experimental and numerical researches on the excavation face stability and ground settlement are discussed while the in situ datum are used to support them. First, the typical projects in rock–soil interface composite formations are listed and the difficulties met are summarized. Second, the failure model of excavation face and support pressure from the tunneling shield in rock–soil interface composite formations are discussed. Then, a comprehensive survey of the factors of ground settlement during and after construction and some effective prediction models are made. Finally, the existing problems and directions for future research are introduced.