云南省雷灾特征分析及灾情评估

根据云南省2007 2008年的雷电灾害资料以及地闪资料,分析了云南省16个地级市的雷电灾害分布特征,讨论了雷灾分布与地闪分布的关系,并从雷灾记录中提取了6个灾度指标,通过AHP法(层次分析法)建立灾情评估层次模型和灾度评估方程,计算了云南省522次雷灾的灾度值,用SAS中聚类分析过程将灾度值分为4级,并统计分析了各级雷灾在各地区的分布情况,得出云南雷电灾害中小型雷灾分布较广、出现几率较大,而大型和特大型雷灾发生几率较低、主要集中在昆明和德宏地区.该文结论为区域防雷减灾规划提供了科学依据.     

苏鲁超高压变质带的深部构造特征——宽频地震层析结果

为了探测苏鲁超高压变质带的岩石圈结构实施了山东日照到滨洲剖面的宽频带地震探测,于2003～2005年使用REFTER130-01型和CMG-6TD型三分量地震仪(频宽50～60s).以10～25km间距布设了25个台站观测近三年时间.由远震地震层析反演结果得到了华北板块、超高压变质带、扬子板块清晰的P波速度图像.华北板块具有简单的低速体形态,越过郯庐断裂向超高压变质带扩张,并平稳地由郯庐断裂向北延伸直到黄河以北的古城镇.Moho面和岩石圈深度分别为30～35km,75～80km;扬子板块为高速体,界于两者之间的苏鲁超高压变质带地壳的平均速度大于两侧板块,剖面上从日照到五莲-烟台断裂范围内除地壳为高速体外,30～60km深度范围内有一个高速体和一个低速体拼会在一起,构成了超高压变质带岩石圈最突出的构造特征.此高速体应为榴辉橄榄岩等超基性岩组成,它可能属于折返回来又被移动的超高压变质岩组合体,并与华北板块基底直接接触,超高压变质带的下界面深度为60km.下界面平直,可能意味着正在消退的造山带的山根,或是造山带的下一层Moho面?郯庐断裂带地壳出露的共四条带,比较陡的产状向深部延伸,并逐步向南倾,TLF2～TLF4在岩石圈底界处合并.     

地史重大转折期的环境变化学术讨论会综述

概述了地史重大转折期的环境变化学术讨论会４个方面的主要科学内容：古生代与中生代之交的全球环境变化,泥贫纪弗拉期与法门期之交的全球环境变化,元古宙与显生宙之交扔全球环境变化和地史重大转折期环境变化的研究方法。围绕上述内容,评述了发言人和专题发言人的主要科学资料和科学思想以及本次会议形成的共识。     

21世纪中国主要粮食产区的空间格局特征

Grain production is an important issue for the national economy and the livelihood of the Chinese people. It serves as the foundation of national development and social stability. China is a major grain producer as well as a major grain consumer. The grai…     

Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods

Reservoirs are the most important constructions for water resources management and flood control. Great concern has been paid to the effects of reservoir on downstream area and the differences between inflows and dam site floods due to the changes of upstream flow generation and concentration conditions after reservoir’s impoundment. These differences result in inconsistency between inflow quantiles and the reservoir design criteria derived by dam site flood series, which can be a potential risk and must be quantificationally evaluated. In this study, flood frequency analysis (FFA) and flood control risk analysis (FCRA) methods are used with the long reservoir inflow series derived from a multiple inputs and single output model and a copula-based inflow estimation model. The results of FFA and FCRA are compared and the influences on reservoir flood management are also discussed. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. Results show that the differences between the TGR inflow and dam site floods are significant which result in changes on its flood control risk rates. The mean values of TGR’s annual maximum inflow peak discharge and 3 days flood volume have increased 5.58 and 3.85% than the dam site ones, while declined by 1.82 and 1.72% for the annual maximum 7 and 15 days flood volumes. The flood control risk rates of middle and small flood events are increased while extreme flood events are declined. It is shown that the TGR can satisfy the flood control task under current hydrologic regime and the results can offer references for better management of the TGR.     

冰心中的气候环境记录与全球变化研究

冰心是高分辨地记录全球变化的主要信息载体之一。本文总结了冰心中提取古气候和古环境信息的系列记录，包括同位素、微量气体、阴阳离子、微粒、生物和有机质等。着重讨论了由这些记录提取的古气候和古环境变化方面的研究进展，并提出了今后的研究重点。     

Mineralogy,major and trace element geochemistry of riverbed sediments in the headwaters of the Yangtze,Tongtian River and Jinsha River

We collected riverbed sediments of the headwaters of the Yangtze River (Chumaer River, Tuotuo River, Gaerqu River and Buqu River), Tongtian River and Jinsha River (HTJR) flowing on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and analyzed their mineralogical features, major and trace element contents. The results show: (i) very poor correlations of Na₂O, K₂O, CaO, Ba, and Sr to SiO₂, LREE to Th, HREE to Hf, and Ta/La to Ti, and characteristics of Eu anomaly (the ratios of (Eu/Eu^*)_N range from 0.60 to 0.83 with an average value of 0.71) all indicate that the Jinsha River sediments have not undergone much mineralogical sorting; (ii) illite and chlorite are predominant clay minerals, and quartz, calcite, dolomite, albite, and K-feldspar are prevailing non-clay minerals. The characteristics of mineral assemblage indicate relatively weak chemical weathering degree in these river basins; (iii) very high contents of Fe₂O₃, MgO, TiO₂, Sc, V, Cr, Co, and Ni at Panzhihua mainly result from the huge-sized V–Ti magnetite deposits occurred in layered gabbroic intrusion; and (iv) the chemical alteration index (CIA) in the HTJR ranges from 46.5 to 69.2 and with an average value of 60.5 which indicates relatively weak weathering degree.     

山东及周边地块间近期运动状态分析

为研究山东所在块体及周边地块间的地壳相对运动状态,利用2001年以来中国地壳运动观测网络以及2007年以来山东GPS观测网的观测结果,使用K-L最佳直线拟合和滑动傅里叶法得到基线变化年周期,以此对处于不同地块的GPS基准站间基线变化趋势进行分析,得出近期山东内部及周边地块间的地壳运动特征。并利用GPS资料分析了2011年3月11日日本9.0级强震对山东地区的影响。     

考虑损伤的节理本构模型

本文在弹塑性损伤的理论框架内,讨论了节理等地质间断面的本构模型。这个模型能够反映节理面的损伤弱化,扩容和弹性刚度劣化等复杂特性。这个模型的另一优点是,塑性变形增量与屈服面是非正交的,但本构矩阵具有对称性。这种对称性在岩石力学的理论研究和数值分析中是至关紧要的。     

三种非线性回归逐时气温预报比较订正

选取ECMWF和T639的2013年1月至2014年12月的数值预报场构造预报因子,基于神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数的非线性方法,预报地面逐时气温。试验结果显示,在单个方法预报误差较大时,3种方法的偏差订正集成方法更利于减小误差,通过偏差订正,3种非线性方法预报效果良好,平均绝对误差减小了0.5 ℃。在近1年独立样本的预报检验中,集成方法、神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.5 ℃、1.7 ℃、1．8 ℃和1．4 ℃,总体上构造函数预报更为准确。