Strength of Stacking Technique of Ensemble Learning in Rockburst Prediction with Imbalanced Data: Comparison of Eight Single and Ensemble Models

Rockburst is a common dynamic geological hazard, severely restricting the development and utilization of underground space and resources. As the depth of excavation and mining increases, rockburst tends to occur frequently. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a study on rockburst prediction. Due to the nonlinear relationship between rockburst and its influencing factors, artificial intelligence was introduced. However, the collected data were typically imbalanced. Single algorithms trained by such data have low recognition for minority classes. In order to handle the problem, this paper employed stacking technique of ensemble learning to establish rockburst prediction models. In total, 246 sets of data were collected. In the preprocessing stage, three data mining techniques including principal component analysis, local outlier factor and expectation maximization algorithm were used for dimension reduction, outlier detection and outlier substitution, respectively. Then, the pre-processed data were split into a training set (75%) and a test set (25%) with stratified sampling. Based on the four classical single intelligent algorithms, namely k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), deep neural network (DNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN), four ensemble models (KNN–RNN, SVM–RNN, DNN–RNN and KNN–SVM–DNN–RNN) were built by stacking technique of ensemble learning. The prediction performance of eight models was evaluated, and the differences between single models and ensemble models were analyzed. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, revealing the importance of input variables on the models. Finally, the impact of class imbalance on the prediction accuracy and fitting effect of models was quantitatively discussed. The results showed that stacking technique of ensemble learning provides a new and promising way for rockburst prediction, which exhibits unique advantages especially when using imbalanced data.

     

河北坝上沙漠化土地综合整治优化模式

本文通过对河北丰宁坝上大滩村农业系统的环境条件、发展历史、结构现状及功能等的分析，针对存在的问题，提出了综合调整系统结构、提高系统功能的原则、对策及整治途径，建立了系统的优化模式并进行了效益分析。     

用统计集合方法制作全国汛期降水滚动预测试验

以全国160站汛期(6-8月)降水量为预测量,以最新得到的74项环流特征量指数为因子,尝试制作全国160站汛期降水滚动预测.建立模型时考虑了预测量与环流特征量因子序列的显著线性变化趋势,以及预测量与环流因子之间的相关不稳定性,用"滑动相关-逐步回归-集合分析"预测方法,分别建立了2009年全国160站汛期降水量的物理统计集合分析预测模型,并进行了近10年独立样本预测试验分析.结果显示:(1)用物理统计集合分析预测方法,以最新得到的74项环流特征量指数为因子,实现了全国160站汛期降水逐月滚动预测,2009年以在5月份制作的滚动预测效果最好.(2)近10年预测试验的空间距平相关系数Acc、业务评分PS和异常级评分TS均高于国家气候中心近年汛期预测业务平均水平.经过不断改进思路和优化具体建模方案,该方法具有较高的业务应用潜力.     

Seasonal variations of stable isotope in precipitation and moisture transport at Yushu,eastern Tibetan Plateau

Precipitation δ 18O at Yushu, eastern Tibetan Plateau, shows strong fluctuation and lack of clear seasonality. The seasonal pattern of precipitation stable isotope at Yushu is apparently different from either that of the southwest monsoon region to the south or that of the inland region to the north. This different seasonal pattern probably reflects the shift of different moisture sources. In this paper, we present the spatial comparison of the seasonal patterns of precipitation δ 18O, and calculate the moisture transport flux by using the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. This allows us to discuss the relation between moisture transport flux and precipitation δ 18O. This study shows that both the southwest monsoon from south and inland air mass transport from north affected the seasonal precipitation δ 18O at Yushu, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Southwest monsoon brings the main part of the moisture, but southwest transport flux is weaker than in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. However, contribution of the inland moisture from north or local evaporation moisture is enhanced. The combined effect is the strong fluctuation of summer precipitation δ 18O at Yushu and comparatively poor seasonality.     

EXTRACTION OF THE STANDARD ENTHALPY OF FORMATION OF MINERALS FROM REVERSED EXPERIMENTAL DATA WITH INS

An improvement on the new method of Intervalhalving-Scanning (INS) proposed by the senior author for derivation of thermodynamic properties of minerals from reversed experiment (REP) data has been made in the present work. The treatment of the REP data of 6 reactions in the system MgO-SiO_2-H_2O and the derivation of △_(?)H(?) (298. 15K) for minerals Talc,Forsterite and Anthophyllite are chosen as an example for demonstration of the application of the method.INS is quite different from all the methods for the derivation in the literature and throughout based on thermodynamic principles and equations so that its thermodynamical validity is thoroughgoing.     

X波段双偏振雷达探测数据分析与校验

保证移动X波段双偏振多普勒天气雷达在野外探测中雷达探测数据源的正确性,是预报员开展后续应用研究的重要前提。简要分析了差分反射率、相关系数、差分传播相移与差分相移系数的理论意义,同时结合多次观测经验,重点研究并验证了各双偏振产品在纯降水中的数值,研究双偏振参数对雷达硬件故障的指示意义,确保在探测时及时发现硬件故障与差损,提高探测数据质量。讨论了双偏振参数自测试校验,进行水平通道与垂直通道参数偏差校验,确保在探测之前获得双偏振通道的一致性。     

Sedimentary Phosphorus Form Distribution and Cycling in the Littoral Subzones of a Eutrophic Lake

Algae which bloom in open water and accumulate in the littoral zones may affect the biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus in eutrophic lakes. To determine such effects, a part of the lakeshore with little allochthonous nutrient input in Taihu Lake, China was selected for this field study. Distinct differences in sedimentary P forms were found among the different littoral subzones. The surface sedimentary total phosphorus (TP) content was 655 mg/kg in the eulittoral subzone and 631 to 641 mg/kg in the infralittoral subzone. Both were much higher than that in the profundal zone (410 mg/kg). Calcium‐bound P (Ca‐P) was significantly correlated to exchangeable P (Ex‐P), and they both had the highest contents in the infralittoral subzone and the lowest in the profundal zone. The aluminum‐ and iron‐bound P (Al‐P, Fe‐P) contents decreased from land to water along the ecotone section. Lower Fe/P ratios and higher Al‐P/Fe‐P ratios appeared in the infralittoral subzone, as compared with the profundal zone. This suggested that the accumulated algae could lead to a great deposit of P in the littoral zones. However, the active sedimentary P form transformation in the littoral zones would also result in a partial release of the accumulated P to the overlying water.     

利用树轮重建小兴安岭五营1796年以来的温度变化

 对黑龙江省小兴安岭五营丰林国家自然保护区建立的红松 (Pinus koraiensis) 树轮宽度年表与五营气象站的气候要素响应分析表明,树轮年表与生长季上一年10月份的平均温度显著相关,由此重建了1796-2004年五营10月份平均温度。此外,4月下旬的温度变化对五营红松树木的径向生长也具有一定的影响。1796-2004年,五营共经历了4个偏冷和4个偏暖期。周期分析表明,重建序列以3.33 a的周期最为显著,对重建序列30 a尺度的突变检验结果表明,1871年和1900年前后,五营地区10月份平均温度出现了显著的均值突变,1851年前后出现了明显的方差突变。     

盆地岩石圈结构与油气成藏及分布

本文综述了大陆岩石圈研究现状和克拉通盆地、裂谷盆地和前陆盆地的岩石圈结构特征,指出在古裂谷、褶皱带或区域性深断裂等陆壳构造薄弱带上发育起来的多期叠合盆地,具有很好的含油气前景。大型含油气盆地往往存在地幔上隆、地壳减薄和地壳内低速层,盆地基底沉降与盖层沉积厚度较大。适度的后期构造活动改造和岩浆活动有利于沉积盆地内油气生成与保存。     

云南个旧松树脚锡矿西部成矿地球化学特征及找矿方向

通过对个旧锡矿松树脚矿田不同成矿部位的岩体和矿床的地球化学特征研究,以已知主要矿体分布地段为对比标准,用七类21项地球化学指标对与主要矿体分布地段毗连的普查区作出了成矿地球化学条件评价,这一评价为近来的工程揭露初步证实,并取得了较好的找矿效果。