Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.     

Investigation of the elevation of saltwater wedge due to subsurface dams

Subsurface dams are rather effective and used for the prevention of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions around the world. We carried out the laboratory experiments to investigate the elevation of saltwater wedge after the construction of subsurface dams. The elevation of saltwater wedge refers to the upward movement of the downstream saltwater wedge because the subsurface dams obstruct the regional groundwater flow and reduce the freshwater discharge. Consequently, the saltwater wedge cannot further extend in the longitudinal direction but rises in the vertical profile resulting in significant downstream aquifer salinization. In order to quantitatively address this issue, field-scale numerical simulations were conducted to explore the influence of various dam heights, distances, and hydraulic gradients on the elevation of saltwater wedge. Our investigation shows that the upward movement of the saltwater wedge and its areal extension in the vertical domain of the downstream aquifer become more severe with a higher dam and performed a great dependence on the freshwater discharge. Furthermore, the increase of the hydraulic gradient and the dam distance from the sea boundary leads to a more pronounced wedge elevation. This phenomenon comes from the variation of the freshwater discharge due to the modification of dam height, location, and hydraulic gradient. Large freshwater discharge can generate greater repulsive force to restrain the elevation of saltwater wedge. These conclusions provide theoretical references for the behaviour of the freshwater–seawater interface after the construction of subsurface dams and help optimize the design strategy to better utilize the coastal groundwater resources.     

Water uptake of riparian plants in the lower Lhasa River Basin,South Tibetan Plateau using stable water isotopes

Riparian plants can adapt their water uptake strategies based on climatic and hydrological conditions within a river basin. The response of cold-alpine riparian trees to changes in water availability is poorly understood. The Lhasa River is a representative cold-alpine river in South Tibet and an under-studied environment. Therefore, a 96 km section of the lower Lhasa River was selected for a study on the water-use patterns of riparian plants. Plant water, soil water, groundwater and river water were measured at three sites for δ¹⁸O and δ²H values during the warm-wet and cold-dry periods in 2018. Soil profiles differed in isotope values between seasons and with the distance along the river. During the cold-dry period, the upper parts of the soil profiles were significantly affected by evaporation. During the warm-wet period, the soil profile was influenced by precipitation infiltration in the upper reaches of the study area and by various water sources in the lower reaches. Calculations using the IsoSource model indicated that the mature salix and birch trees (Salix cheilophila Schneid. and Betula platyphylla Suk.) accessed water from multiple sources during the cold-dry period, whereas they sourced more than 70% of their requirement from the upper 60–80 cm of the soil profile during the warm-wet period. The model indicated that the immature rose willow tree (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb) accessed 66% of its water from the surface soil during the cold-dry period, but used the deeper layers during the warm-wet period. The plant type was not the dominant factor driving water uptake patterns in mature plants. Our findings can contribute to strategies for the sustainable development of cold-alpine riparian ecosystems. It is recommended that reducing plantation density and collocating plants with different rooting depths would be conducive to optimal plant growth in this environment.     

Discharge‐sediment processes of the Zhadang glacier on the Tibetan Plateau measured with a high frequency data acquisition system

In high elevation cold regions of the Tibetan Plateau, suspended sediment transfer from glacier meltwater erosion is one of the important hydrological components. The Zhadang glacier is a typical valley‐type glacier in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains on the Tibetan Plateau. To make frequent and long period records of meltwater runoff and sediment processes in the very high elevation and isolated regions, an automatic system was installed near the glacier snout (5400 m a.s.l) in August 2013, to measure the transient discharge and sediment processes at 5‐min interval, which is shorter than the time span for the water flow to traverse the catchment from the farthest end to the watershed outlet. Diurnal variations of discharge, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were recorded at high frequency for the Zhadang glacier, before suspended sediment load (SSL) was computed. Hourly SSC varied from the range of 0.2 kg/m³ to 0.5 kg/m³ (at 8:00–9:00) to the range of 2.0 kg/m³ to 4.0 kg/m³ (at 17:00–18:00). The daily SSL was 32.24 t during the intense ablation period. Hourly SSC was linearly correlated with discharge (r = 0.885**, n = 18, p < 0.01). A digit‐eight hysteresis loop was observed for the sediment transport in the glacier area. Air temperature fluctuations influence discharge, and then result in the sediment variations. The results of this study provide insight into the responses of suspended sediment delivery processes with a high frequency data in the high elevation cold regions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of a coarse interlayer on seawater intrusion and contaminant migration in coastal aquifers

Vertical 2D slice laboratory experiments were carried out in homogenous and layered sand tanks to elucidate the effects of a highly permeable (coarse‐grained sand) interlayer on seawater intrusion and transport of contaminants to a coastal sea. Tidal fluctuations produced oscillations in the seawater–freshwater transition zone, fluctuations of the contaminant infiltration rate and a zigzag contaminant plume outline. The seawater wedge became discontinuous at the (vertical) edges of the interlayer because of increased lateral movement of the seawater–freshwater interface within the interlayer. The contaminant plume formed a tail within the interlayer depending on the tidal stage, and similar to the wedge, its movement was accentuated. A simple analytical model that neglected vertical flow reliably predicted steady‐state seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifer. Numerical modeling was used to gain insight into the groundwater hydrodynamics and contaminant migration. The numerical results confirmed the experimental findings, i.e. that a highly permeable interlayer can provide a rapid transit path for contaminants to reach the seaward boundary and that the interlayer amplifies the effects of tidal fluctuations, resulting in wider transition zones for the seawater wedge and contaminant plume. Numerical simulations further showed that, with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity, the maximum seawater intrusion distance inside the interlayer increases approximately linearly. For the fixed‐head contaminant injection condition used, the model showed that contaminant infiltration increases approximately logarithmically with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity (other factors held fixed). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measurement of stream cross section using ground penetration radar with Hilbert–Huang transform

This study presents a new method to measure stream cross section without having contact with water. Compared with conventional measurement methods which apply instruments such as sounding weight, ground penetration radar (GPR), used in this study, is a non‐contact measurement method. This non‐contact measurement method can reduce the risk to hydrologists when they are conducting measurements, particularly in high flow period. However, the original signals obtained by using GPR are very complex, different from studies in the past where the measured data were mostly interpreted by experts with special skill or knowledge of GPR so that the results obtained were less objective. This study employs Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) to process GPR signals which are difficult to interpret by hydrologists. HHT is a newly developed signal processing method that can not only process the nonlinear and non‐stationary complex signals, but also maintain the physical significance of the signal itself. Using GPR with HHT, this study establishes a non‐contact stream cross‐section measurement method with the ability to measure stream cross‐sectional areas precisely and quickly. Also, in comparison with the conventional method, no significant difference in results is found to exist between the two methods, but the new method can considerably reduce risk, measurement time, and manpower. It is proven that the non‐contact method combining GPR with HHT is applicable to quickly and accurately measure stream cross section. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.