珠江河口夏季缺氧现象的模拟

夏季底层水体缺氧现象是珠江河口存在的环境问题之一。使用三维水动力-生态耦合模型来分析珠江口缺氧现象的分布状况和产生原因。模拟结果表明:模型能很好的再现珠江口的缺氧敏感性区域和强度。珠江口存在的底层水体缺氧现象是水体强烈层化和生化耗氧过程共同作用的结果。缺氧现象的发展与减退受潮汐涨落的影响。珠江口盐度-潮汐混合锋面和层化作用控制低氧水团的范围和强度。     

基于图论的树状河系结构化绘制模型研究

结合树状河系自身的结构特点和图论的思想,提出了基于图论的河系结构化绘制模型的建立,利用图论的思想描述了河系的结构并建立其自动符号化模型,阐述了主流、流向自动确定和结构化绘制实现的详细算法,并对通用图形数据格式DXF文件记录的河系数据进行了测试。     

Model of wind-generated ambient noise in stratified shallow water

In order to build a rapid ocean ambient noise model adapted for a stratified shallow water, a hybrid model of normal mode method (for far field) and ray method (for near field) is suggested which combines the advantages of both methods. Since the near field of wind-generated noise is not sensitive to the sound speed profile, the sound speed profile is regarded as a constant; which makes the model rapid and accurate. The simulation results are in agreement with those of the wave model.     

青海祁漫塔格地区航磁异常特征及找矿前景

利用青海祁漫塔格地区1∶5万高精度航磁资料,结合成矿地质背景、构造特征分析了该区航磁异常特征,并依据知矿(床)点的分布及成矿规律对祁漫塔格地区成矿带进行了划分,筛选了一批重点找矿异常,建立了以航磁异常信息为主的综合找矿标志,进而圈定了多个多金属找矿远景区段.对该区下一步矿产勘查部署提供重要依据,并为地面找矿工作提供重要的找矿线索.     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

跨越断层埋地管线地震反应研究述评

本文论述了跨越断层埋地管线地震反应研究工作概况,包括理论研究和实验研究的进展,并介绍了不同情况下采用的研究方法和建立的相应的研究模型,通过对数据结果进行整理分析,得出跨越断层埋地管线地震反应规律。同时,本文还对埋地管线研究中的一些重要参数对研究结果的影响作了详尽的阐述,提出了需进一步研究的问题和今后可能的研究发展方向。     

Stokes漂流对全球海表面温度模拟的影响

Stokes漂流对海洋上混合层中的流场和温度场结构具有不可忽视的作用。本文基于WAVEWATCHⅢ海浪模式模拟的海浪要素计算得到Stokes漂流,将其引入SBPOM模式的动量方程中,从体积输运的角度研究Stokes漂流对全球海表面温度的影响。分析发现Stokes漂流与Stokes输运在全球呈现高纬度强于中低纬度的带状分布特征,且这种流动与输运对全球海表面温度具有降温作用,该降温作用的分布与全球Stokes输运强度相对应,高纬降温作用大于中低纬度,特别是南极绕极流海域平均降温明显大于其余海域,最大降温可达1.5℃,且全球月平均降温超过0.1℃。     

Research on red tide occurrences using enclosed experimental ecosystems in west Xiamen Harbor, China—Relationship between various factors and red tide occurrences

A series of enclosed ecosystem experiments were conducted in a land-based tank near the seaside of West Xiamen Harbor. The results of experiments conducted in different seasons and years showed a repeatable phytoplankton succession. In this relatively stable ecosystem with added nutrients and trace metals, diatoms dominated initially, dinoflagellates dominated in the later stage, and dinoflagellate red tides eventually occurred. Vitamin B₁₂ enrichment may speed up this succession process. Stirring the water column could stop this process. Soluble Mn at a level of 3–4 μg/L in seawater, which also is the existing concentration of soluble Mn in Xiamen Harbor seawater, is sufficient for the multiplication of algae and occurrence of red tide. The present study showed that excessive soluble Mn in Xiamen Harbor cannot cause red tide, and that Fe was one of the important factors causing diatiom red tide in this present study. Project 39570145 supported by NSFC.     

帕米尔东北缘穷阿木太克岩体年代学、地球化学特征及地质意义

分布于帕米尔东北缘羌塘地块上的穷阿木太克岩体,与班公湖怒江洋的闭合有着密切关系。岩体主要由英云闪长岩、花岗闪长岩和二长花岗岩组成。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果显示,穷阿木太克岩体的形成年龄为(107.0±1.2) Ma(MSWD=0.55),属于早白垩世晚期。地球化学结果显示,主量元素具有富Ca、富K、富碱等特点,岩石Al含量较高,为弱过铝质花岗岩系列,具典型的钙碱性特征。稀土元素具有轻稀土富集、重稀土亏损的右倾型特征,并显示弱的负铕异常。微量元素表现出大离子亲石元素Rb、Th、U、K高度富集和高场强元素Nb、Ta、Ti、Hf强烈亏损。岩石在成因上可能是地壳下部基性岩石经熔融或部分熔融作用形成的。结合本区所处的构造环境,早白垩世晚期穷阿木太克岩体可能形成于羌塘地块与冈底斯地块之间同碰撞(挤压环境)向碰撞后(伸展环境)的转化阶段,为后造山花岗岩类,岩石系列从早到晚由中钾钙碱性系列向钾玄岩系列演化。     

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