40Ar/39Ar dating of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones: Implications for crustal deformation around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis

We conducted a comprehensive ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological study of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones to obtain a better understanding of crustal deformation and tectonic evolution around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS). The new age data reveal that the main phase of deformation in the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones occurred from 22 to 11 Ma and from 18 to 13 Ma, respectively. Structural data collected during this study indicate that the Jiali shear zone underwent a change in shear sense from sinistral to dextral during its movement history. Based on a comparison with the deformation histories of other major shear zones in the region, we argue that the initial sinistral motion recorded by the Jiali shear zone was coincident with that of the Ailao Shan–Red River shear zone, which marked the northern boundary of the southeastward extrusion of the Indochina block during the Early Miocene. From the Middle Miocene (～18 Ma), the Jiali shear zone changed to dextral displacement, becoming linked with the dextral Gaoligong shear zone that developed as a consequence of continued northward indentation of the Indian continent into Asia. Since this time, the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones have been united, defining the southwestern boundary of the EHS during clockwise rotation of the eastward-extruding Tibetan block, as revealed by recent GPS data. The temporal change in regional deformation pattern from southeastward block extrusion to clockwise rotation of crustal fragments may have played an important role in the development of the eastern Himalayan drainage system around the EHS.     

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.     

利用主成分分析改善土地利用变化的遥感监测精度——以珠江三角洲城市用地扩张为例

近年来,珠江三角洲由于经济的快速发展,城市用地急剧增加,利用多时相的遥感图,可以定量地监测这种城市化的现象。但理,由一般的遥感动态监测方法所得的结果往往夸大变化的程度,以及获得一些不合理的结论．该文提出主成分分析的方法来改善遥感动态监测的精度。将该方法应用应用于珠江三角洲发展最快的东莞市,获得了较满意的结果。     

Theory and experimental study for sliding isolators with variable curvature

Because a conventional isolation system with constant isolation frequency is usually a long‐period dynamic system, its seismic response is likely to be amplified in earthquakes with strong long‐period wave components, such as near‐fault ground motions. Seismic isolators with variable mechanical properties may provide a promising solution to alleviate this problem. To this end, in this work sliding isolators with variable curvature (SIVC) were studied experimentally. An SIVC isolator is similar to a friction pendulum system (FPS) isolator, except that its sliding surface has variable curvature rather being spherical. As a result, the SIVC's isolation stiffness that is proportional to the curvature becomes a function of the isolator displacement. By appropriately designing the geometry of the sliding surface, the SIVC is able to possess favorable hysteretic behavior. In order to prove the applicability of the SIVC concept, several prototype SIVC isolators, whose sliding surfaces are defined by a sixth‐order polynomial function, were fabricated and tested in this study. A cyclic element test on the prototype SIVC isolators and a shaking table test on an SIVC isolated steel frame were all conducted. The results of both tests have verified that the prototype SIVC isolators do indeed have the hysteretic property of variable stiffness as prescribed by the derived formulas in this study. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the proposed SIVC is able to effectively reduce the isolator drift in a near‐fault earthquake with strong long‐period components, as compared with that of an FPS system with the same friction coefficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CaMnSi2O6-CaAlSiAlO6系统的实验研究

冶金炉渣是在迅速冷却的条件下结晶的,铸石是在熔体的固相线以下恒温结晶的,这两种情况皆属不平衡状态。过去的硅酸盐体系的实验研究几乎仅局限于平衡状态,对非平衡状态研究甚少,只是近来才开始这方面的研究。在硅锰渣铸石和硅锰渣微晶铸石中,主要矿物为锰铸普通辉石--钙锰辉石与钙契尔马克分子（CaAlSiAlO₆）以及少量的Mg₂Si₂O₆的固溶体,其次是钙蔷薇辉石和钙长石,另外还有极少量的方锰石、硫化锰等。     

利用遥感监测和分析珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程——以东莞市为例

伴随着经济的快速增长,珠江三角洲近年来出现了迅速的城市化以及乡村城市化的过程。沿着城镇边缘和公路两旁,大片的农田被侵占来单方面地满足城市开发的需要,忽略了粮食产量减少以及环境质量恶化等问题。利用遥感可以有效地监测珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程。在遥感多时相监测的基础上通过熵的计算,可以定量地描述城市扩张的空间规律及扩散过程。     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new solution for a partially penetrating constant‐rate pumping well with a finite‐thickness skin

A mathematical model describing the constant pumping is developed for a partially penetrating well in a heterogeneous aquifer system. The Laplace‐domain solution for the model is derived by applying the Laplace transforms with respect to time and the finite Fourier cosine transforms with respect to vertical co‐ordinates. This solution is used to produce the curves of dimensionless drawdown versus dimensionless time to investigate the influences of the patch zone and well partial penetration on the drawdown distributions. The results show that the dimensionless drawdown depends on the hydraulic properties of the patch and formation zones. The effect of a partially penetrating well on the drawdown with a negative patch zone is larger than that with a positive patch zone. For a single‐zone aquifer case, neglecting the effect of a well radius will give significant error in estimating dimensionless drawdown, especially when dimensionless distance is small. The dimensionless drawdown curves for cases with and without considering the well radius approach the Hantush equation (Advances in Hydroscience. Academic Press: New York, 1964) at large time and/or large distance away from a test well. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.