中国大陆地震死亡率的标度律及其在预测中的应用

研究了中国大陆华北地区、西南地区和西北地区自1500年以来因地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律, 并将其应用于泊松模型中, 对未来地震人员死亡数作了长期预测。预测表明, 在2020年前, 华北地区、西南地区发生地震死亡1 000人以上事件以及西北地区发生地震死亡100人以上事件的概率都在0. 8以上。     

Investigation of geothermal structure of the Sulawesi,using gravity and magnetic method

The Sulawesi Sea and Sulawesi Island are located in the western Pacific area where volcanic activity,plate subduction,and seismic activity are very active.The Sulawesi basin formed during the Middle Eocene-Late Eocene and nearly half of the Eocene oceanic crust has subducted below the North Sulawesi Trench.The Sulawesi Island was spliced and finalized in the Early Pliocene-Pleistocene during volcanic activity and is recently very active.This area is an optimal location to study volcanic geothermal conditions and subduction initiation mechanisms in the southern part of the western Pacific plate margin,which are important in geothermal and geodynamic research.In this study,we combined 133 heat flow data with gravity and magnetic data to calculate the Moho structure and Curie point depth of the Sulawesi Sea and periphery of the Sulawesi Island,and analyze the distribution characteristics of the geothermal gradient and thermal conductivity.The results show that the average depths of the Moho and Curie surfaces in this area are 18.4 and 14.3 km,respectively,which is consistent with the crustal velocity layer structure in the Sulawesi Basin previously determined by seismic refraction.The average geothermal gradient is 4.96°C(100 m)-1.The oceanic area shows a high geothermal gradient and low thermal conductivity,whereas the land area shows a low geothermal gradient and high thermal conductivity,both of which are consistent with statistical results of the geothermal gradient at the measured heat flow points.The highest geothermal gradient zone occurs in the transition zone from the Sulawesi Sea to Sulawesi Island,corresponding to the spreading ridge of the southward-moving Sulawesi Basin.Comprehensive gravity,magnetic,and geothermal studies have shown a high crustal geothermal gradient in the study area,which is conducive to the subduction initiation.The northern part of the Palu-koro fault on the western side of Sulawesi is likely the location where subduction initiation is occurring.During the process of moving northwest,the northern and eastern branches of Sulawesi Island have different speeds;the former is slow and the latter is fast.These branches also show different deep tectonic dynamic directions;the northern branch tilts north-up and the eastern branch tilts north-down.     

Assessing modern arboreal phytolith sensitivity to vegetation variations in temperate forest regions

To assess the reliability of arboreal phytoliths for differentiating vegetation types in temperate forest regions, we systematically analysed arboreal leaf phytoliths from 72 arboreal plants and 49 modern soils from three forest types in northeast China. The arboreal leaf phytolith production and morphotypes were highly variable between species. The arboreal leaf phytolith assemblages could clearly distinguish between broadleaf and coniferous species, but they were much less successful in differentiating broadleaved trees into subtaxa. Coniferous leaf morphotypes were successfully used to differentiate coniferous trees into families and subtaxa, especially in the Pinaceae. Two diagnostic broadleaved and six coniferous phytolith morphotypes were recognized within the modern soil beneath forest ecosystems. These arboreal phytoliths comprised up to 10–15% of the total soil phytoliths, and were dominated by coniferous types. Arboreal phytolith concentrations and phytolith assemblages in the soils fluctuated substantially amongst the three forest types. Soil arboreal phytolith assemblages were successfully used to differentiate samples from Larix mixed forest, broadleaf forest and Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. In addition, the arboreal index quantitatively distinguished the three forest types, with B/BE values <0.4 for Larix mixed forest samples, values from 0.4 to 0.6 for broadleaf forest samples, and values from 0.6 to 0.9 for P. koraiensis mixed forest. Thus, our surface soil arboreal phytolith assemblages and arboreal index are a useful reference for differentiating forest ecotypes, and they also provide reliable analogues for arboreal phytoliths from palaeoecological contexts in temperate forest regions.     

Stability of the lundquist field and the physical nature of eruptive prominences with helical structure

The stability of the Lundquist field is analysed in the light of the energy principle. The results show: (1) form = 0 disturbances, the Lundquist field is stable; (2) form = 1 disturbances, the Lundquist field will turn unstable in certain conditions. Whether the field will remain stable or not depends on parameters such as the helical pinch angle and radius and length of the prominence. Comparison between theory and observations reveals that a kink instability in the Lundquist field may be a critical physical reason for eruptive prominences with helical patterns.     

Calcium Isotopic Fractionation during Ion‐Exchange Column Chemistry and Thermal Ionisation Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) Determination

Significant isotopic fractionation can occur during column chemistry and determination by mass spectrometry. Improper correction may produce uncertainties in the isotopic composition of geological samples. We investigated calcium isotopic fractionation during these two processes and set up a model to check data quality. The δ^44/40Ca_915a value of IAPSO seawater in different Ca cuts (e.g., 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, 60–80 and 80–100%) on column chemistry ranged from ~ 4‰ to 0‰. The more Ca was eluted, the lower the δ^44/40Ca_915a value of the elution was found. The isotopic fractionation of calcium on the column appeared to follow the exponential law. However, TIMS instrumental fractionation during Ca runs did not always follow the exponential law due to mixing effects from sample reservoirs on the filament. Our results show that errors could be caused if the instrumental fractionation deviates from the exponential law, especially when the fractionation degree is large. To improve the measurement uncertainty, a model is proposed to check the behaviour and degree of instrumental fractionation, which will provide a quick and reasonable verdict on the data quality of TIMS runs.     

Practice and research progress on ecosystem conservation in transboundary areas

Many ecosystems extend across national or political boundaries. The consistent and effective protection of these ecosystems in transboundary areas(ETAs) is an important global research focus. Previous research on the protection of such areas can be categorized into seven themes: 1) ecological conservation of a single ETA; 2) investigation of the effects of a single conservation measure on a specific ETA; 3) determination of species-level effects due to ETA conservation; 4) comparison of the same protection measures between different ETAs; 5) introduction of a single conservation measure to a specific ETA; 6) understanding the relationship between conservation and sustainable development; and 7) generalization across multiple ETA conservation cases. The protection of ETAs involves various considerations, including funding support, demand and will for collaboration, community and public participation, historical and cultural factors, political backgrounds, uniqueness of biological resources, formulation of laws and regulations, founding of specialized administrative departments, non-governmental organizations, and fairness. Here, we briefly explain the research themes and considerations related to ETA conservation. The most important finding is that most major research themes do not focus on the challenges of ETA conservation. We use two nature reserves located between China and North Korea as examples to identify specific ways to improve ETA conservation on Changbai Mountains. The efficiency of ETA administration still remains low. The study of ETA conservation should focus on concrete regional information and aim to improve existing measures through the accumulation of experience.     

珊瑚荧光的古降水记录

珊瑚作为热带海洋气候环境的信息载体，不仅记录了过去海洋信息，也记录了陆源环境信息。Isdale于1984年在《Nature》杂志上发表论文阐明珊瑚的黄绿荧光记录了Burdekin河的径流量变化以后，国际上对珊瑚荧光的研究逐渐发展起来，并取得了不少成果。研究表明，利用珊瑚荧光所提供的信息，可以重现过去大陆沿海的降雨变化情况、干旱或洪涝的变化旋回及入海河流的径流量变化。这对研究并重建过去气候环境、预报未来的气候变化趋势有着重要的意义。本文评述了国外对珊瑚荧光的研究进展、报道了本实验室进行了初步工作，同时，对珊瑚荧光作为环境地球化学新的代用指标所潜在的应用前景进行了讨论。     

Groupiness of Sea Waves and Their Characteristic Parameters

Three methods for studying wave groups and their main parameters for describing wave groupiness are reviewed in this paper. Then they are analyzed and compared combined with field data from both aspects of group height and group length. A method and two parameters that can describe wave groupiness are suggested. The groupiness parameters of sea waves at three field stations are given. The effects of groupiness on both distributions of the wave height and the phase of component waves are investigated. The effects of datum length on the calculated value of grouping parameters are also discussed.