湘西北页岩层地震反射波组特征研究

湘西北地区发育寒武系下统牛蹄塘组、志留系下统龙马溪组两套富有机质黑色页岩。通过合成地震记录和已知地质特征推断反射层位的方法,对两套含烃黑色页岩层的地震地质特征、波组层位识别、波组特征进行了分析对比,总结出湘西北地区页岩层地震反射波所具有的典型特征:龙马溪组存在3~4个强相位,主频集中在30Hz左右;牛蹄塘组存在3个强反射界面,因深度加大,其主频集中在20Hz左右。由于龙马溪组和牛蹄塘组二组地层间距达2 500~3 000m,因此在湘西北地区将二组地层的反射波视作一个波系,其二维地震剖面存在3个波组4个反射层位或3个波组3个反射层位,三个波组分别为龙马溪组,中寒武底界及牛蹄塘组。另外因龙马溪组砂质泥岩段具有低速、低密度、低电阻率、高放射性等特征,其界面波阻抗差异较大,可作为本区的地震波标志层位。     

正态分布检验在地下水检测质量控制中的应用

对地下水调查中37种必测组分检测过程的替代物进行筛选,应用D’Agostino法对替代物的测量结果进行正态性检验。利用正态分布函数"3σ"原则,定义了各替代物质量控制指标的有效区间。应用正态函数随机变量的数学期望和方差,计算得到各替代物有效区间内的正态函数分布概率均大于97%,替代物过程能力指数计算结果表明,二溴氟代甲烷、甲苯-d8、对溴氟苯、1,2-二氯苯-d4、氟苯等挥发性有机污染物分析过程选用的替代物质量控制过程处于稳定的监控状态;2,4,5,6-四氯间二甲苯、二丁基氯菌酸酯、p-三联苯、十氯联苯等半挥发性有机污染物分析过程选用的替代物监控指标分析过程能力不足。建议参考美国EPA方法中有关监控指标质量控制区间的要求,适当放宽对半挥发性有机物检测流程中选用的替代物质量控制区间的有效范围。正态分布在地下水检测过程质量控制中的应用,为实验室检测过程的质量管理提供了科学、有效的数学依据。     

Investigation of geothermal structure of the Sulawesi,using gravity and magnetic method

The Sulawesi Sea and Sulawesi Island are located in the western Pacific area where volcanic activity,plate subduction,and seismic activity are very active.The Sulawesi basin formed during the Middle Eocene-Late Eocene and nearly half of the Eocene oceanic crust has subducted below the North Sulawesi Trench.The Sulawesi Island was spliced and finalized in the Early Pliocene-Pleistocene during volcanic activity and is recently very active.This area is an optimal location to study volcanic geothermal conditions and subduction initiation mechanisms in the southern part of the western Pacific plate margin,which are important in geothermal and geodynamic research.In this study,we combined 133 heat flow data with gravity and magnetic data to calculate the Moho structure and Curie point depth of the Sulawesi Sea and periphery of the Sulawesi Island,and analyze the distribution characteristics of the geothermal gradient and thermal conductivity.The results show that the average depths of the Moho and Curie surfaces in this area are 18.4 and 14.3 km,respectively,which is consistent with the crustal velocity layer structure in the Sulawesi Basin previously determined by seismic refraction.The average geothermal gradient is 4.96°C(100 m)-1.The oceanic area shows a high geothermal gradient and low thermal conductivity,whereas the land area shows a low geothermal gradient and high thermal conductivity,both of which are consistent with statistical results of the geothermal gradient at the measured heat flow points.The highest geothermal gradient zone occurs in the transition zone from the Sulawesi Sea to Sulawesi Island,corresponding to the spreading ridge of the southward-moving Sulawesi Basin.Comprehensive gravity,magnetic,and geothermal studies have shown a high crustal geothermal gradient in the study area,which is conducive to the subduction initiation.The northern part of the Palu-koro fault on the western side of Sulawesi is likely the location where subduction initiation is occurring.During the process of moving northwest,the northern and eastern branches of Sulawesi Island have different speeds;the former is slow and the latter is fast.These branches also show different deep tectonic dynamic directions;the northern branch tilts north-up and the eastern branch tilts north-down.     

福建紫金山铜金矿床成矿流体演化数值模拟——混合和沸腾过程研究

利用ＣＨＩＬＬＥＲ软件模拟了紫金山铜金矿床主矿化阶段成矿流体的混合和局部减压等焓沸腾过程，模拟结果显示矿化具有低的ＨＳ＾－和Ｃａ＾２＋浓度，高的Ａｓ含量。在混全和沸腾过程中，随着温度和压力的降低，ｐＨ值和ｆＯ２逐渐降低，这是些金山铜金矿成矿流体的重要特征。     

SWAT模型在粮食产量预测中的应用

以新乡县为研究对象,基于SWAT模型构建了该区域的分布式水文模型,并对影响模型的重要参数进行了率定和验证。结果表明,对比运用SWAT模型模拟得到粮食产量与实际粮食产量,其相对误差的绝对值大部分在10%以内,相关系数为0.84,Nash-Suttcliffe确定性系数为0.7,该模型可以较准确的模拟粮食产量,并能为该区域的粮食安全、水资源合理配置、水环境等方面的规划提供科学依据。     

武汉市日供水量与气象要素的相关分析

利用武汉市逐日供水量资料与温度、降水、日照等气象要素进行同步相关分析,选取相关性较高的气温作为预报因子,建立了日供水量的简易预测模型。     

CA-FCM方案与其它几种人工增雨评估方案的比较

对河南省12次飞机增雨作业,分别采用作业区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案、区域趋势相关回归分析方案、区域趋势协变量多元回归分析方案、浮动对比区历史回归分析方案(FCM)、以降水量为协变量的CA-FCM(Cluster-Analysis-based Floating Contro historical regression Method)方案和以降水量和整层大气可降水量为协变量的CA-FCM方案进行效果评估,均得到大于15%的相对增雨量.对结果比较分析表明:协变量由降水量和整层大气降水量两个组成的CA-FCM方案,由于采用了聚类分析提高了对比区和影响区相关系数和引入了整层大气可降水量作为协变量提高了作业区自然降水量估计值的准确性,从而比其它评估方案效果更好.     

基于RAMS/CFORS Ⅱ模式一次低空核试验放射性烟云扩散的数值模拟

采用RAMS／CFORS Ⅱ模式模拟了一次低空核试验烟云的传输和沉降过程。CFORS Ⅱ模式是在RAMS／CFORS模式的基础上开发的,可用于对核试验放射性烟云长距离输送和沉降过程的模拟研究。模拟表明：对流层中低层的低压槽系统对本次低空核试验烟云的水平传输和垂直扩散起着重要的影响作用;烟云的长距离传输速度呈现出随高度递减而减小的趋势,在6000m以上,烟云在爆后48h即东移入海,6000m以下,烟云在中国大陆的扩散和沉降维持了5d以上;爆后2天内以大粒子沉降为主,其后以小粒子沉降为主,小粒子的放射性远小于大粒子,在爆后第4天,放射性沉降就减小了3个量级,而小粒子的沉降范围是大粒子的5倍以上。通过模拟和观测对比表明,模拟结果基本符合实际烟云的传输和沉降态势。     

A STUDY ON VARIABLE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.     

Vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties during haze and floating dust weather in Shanghai

A comparative study on the vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties during haze and floating dust weather in Shanghai was conducted based on the data obtained from a micro pulse lidar.There was a distinct difference in layer thickness and extinction coefficient under the two types of weather conditions.Aerosols were concentrated below 1 km and the aerosol extinction coefficients ranged from 0.25 to 1.50km^-1 on haze days.In contrast,aerosols with smaller extinction coefficients(0.20 0.35 km^-1) accumulated mainly from the surface to 2 km on floating dust days.The seasonal variations of extinction and aerosol optical depth（AOD） for both haze and floating dust cases were similar greatest in winter,smaller in spring,and smallest in autumn.More than 85%of the aerosols appeared in the atmosphere below 1 km during severe haze and floating dust weather.The diurnal variation of the extinction coefficient of haze exhibited a bimodal shape with two peaks in the morning or at noon,and at nightfall,respectively.The aerosol extinction coefficient gradually increased throughout the day during floating dust weather.Case studies showed that haze aerosols were generated from the surface and then lifted up,but floating dust aerosols were transported vertically from higher altitude to the surface.The AOD during floating dust weather was higher than that during haze.The boundary layer was more stable during haze than during floating dust weather.