The Summer Arctic Boundary Layer during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 (AOE-2001)

Boundary-layer measurements made from the Swedish icebreaker Oden during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 (AOE-2001) are analysed. They refer mainly to ice drift in the central Arctic during the period 2–21 August 2001. On board Oden a remote sensing array with a wind profiler, cloud radar and a scanning microwave radiometer, and a regular weather station operated continuously; soundings were also released during research stations. Turbulence and profile measurements on an 18-m mast were deployed on the ice, along with two sodar systems, a microbarograph array and a tethered sounding system. Surface flux and meteorological stations were also deployed on nearby ice floes. There is a clear diurnal cycle in radiation and also in wind speed, cloud base and visibility. It is absent in temperature and humidity, probably due to the very strong control by melting/ freezing ice and snow. In the advection of warm air, latent heat of melting maintains the surface temperature at 0 °C, while with a negative energy balance the latent heat of freezing of the salty ocean water acts to maintain the surface temperature > −2 °C. The constant presence of water at the surface maintains a relative humidity close to 100%, and this is also often facilitated by an increasing specific humidity through the capping inversion, making entrainment a moisture source. This ensures cloudy conditions, with low cloud and fog prevailing most of the time. Intrusions of warm and moist air from beyond the ice edge are frequent, but the local Arctic boundary layer remains at a relatively constant temperature, and is shallow and well mixed with strong capping inversions. Power spectra of surface-layer wind speed sometimes show large variance at low frequency. A scanning radiometer provides a monitoring of the vertical thermal structure with a spatial and temporal resolution not seen before in the Arctic. There are often two inversions, an elevated main inversion and a weak surface inversion, and occasionally additional inversions occur. Enhanced entrainment across the main inversion appears to occur during frontal passages. Variance of the scanning radiometer temperatures occurs in large pulses rather than varying smoothly, and the height to the maximum variance appears to be a reasonable proxy for the boundary-layer depth.     

‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 5⁰E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.     

Boundary-Layer Adjustment Over Small-Scale Changes of Surface Heat Flux

Four months of eddy correlation data collected over a grass field and a nearby sage brush community are analyzed to examine the adjustment of the boundary-layer structure as it flows from the heated brush to the snow-covered grass. The grass site includes a 34-m tower with seven levels of eddy correlation data. The midday heat flux over the snow-covered grass and bare ground surfaces is often downward particularly with melting conditions, while the corresponding heat flux over the brush is almost always upward. For most of these cases, a stable internal boundary layer over the snow is well defined in terms of vertical profiles of the buoyancy flux over the snow-covered grass. The stable internal boundary layer is generally embedded within a deeper layer of flux divergence corresponding to increasing upward heat flux with height above the internal boundary layer. With thin snow cover, the surface heat flux over the grass is weak upward due to heating of grass protruding above the snow so that the flow adjusts to a decrease of the upward surface heat flux in the downwind direction. This common case of an adjusting boundary layer contrasts with the formation of an internal boundary layer due to a change of sign of the surface heat in flux the downwind direction. The adjustment of the boundary layer to the decrease of the surface heat flux leads to vertical divergence of the upward heat flux in contrast to the usual heated boundary layer over homogeneous surfaces. The consequences of the cooling due to the vertical divergence of the heat flux are discussed in terms of the heat budget of the adjusting and internal boundary layers.     

Measurements of Flows Over Isolated Valleys

Wind-tunnel measurements of the flow over an isolated valley both normal and at an angle (45°) to a simulated neutrally stable atmospheric boundary layer are presented. Attention is concentrated on the nature of the flow within the valley itself. The work formed part of a wider study that included detailed field measurements around an African desert valley and some limited comparisons with that work are included. A scale of about 1:1000 was used for the laboratory work, in which an appropriate combination of hot wire and particle image velocimetry was employed. For a valley normal to the upwind flow, it is shown that the upstream influence of the valley extends to a distance of at least one half of the axial valley width upstream of the leading edge, whereas differences in mean flow and turbulence could be identified well beyond two valley widths from the downwind edge. Non-normal wind angles lead to significant along-valley flows within the valley and, even at two valley heights above the valley ridge level, there remains a significant spanwise flow component. Downwind turbulence levels are somewhat lower in this case, but are still considerably higher than in the undisturbed boundary layer. At both flow angles, there are significant recirculation regions within the valleys, starting from mean separation just beyond the leading edge, but the strong spanwise flow in the 45° case reduces the axial extent of the separated zone. The flow is shown to be in some ways analogous to flow over an isolated hill. Our results usefully enhance the field data and could be used to improve modelling of saltation processes in the field.     

Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.     

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.     

Carbon Sequestration in Arable Soils is Likely to Increase Nitrous Oxide Emissions,Offsetting Reductions in Climate Radiative Forcing

Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles, and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N, with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Reduced tillage, enhanced crop residue incorporation, and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration, increased N₂O emissions, and had little effect on CH₄ uptake. Over 20 years, increases in N₂O emissions, which were converted into CO₂-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers, offset 75–310% of the carbon sequestered, depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection.     

Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical Origins,Recent Interpretations

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for “dangerous anthropogenic interference” and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 ^∘C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO₂ equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

PNNLs Agriculture and Land Use is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-yr time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agricultural productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.