Turning points in black holes astrophysics

Black hole astrophysics is expected to have a major breakthrough any day. Theoretical understanding is well advanced, so the breakthrough has to come from observers. Conclusive and direct evidence of event horizons, signatures of tidal deformation of gas clouds (and eventual disappearance of matter behind horizons) could be obtained in matter of months. At this juncture, we wish to summarize how the subject came to this stage and what is the state-of-the-art flow solution around a black hole. We touch upon the most crucial issue of (un)predictability of this subject. We believe that if viscosity is roughly what MRI simulations are pointing to us, we still require very detailed knowledge of properties of the companion, especially time dependent mass transfer from the companion to the black hole.     

Progressive failure leading to the 3 December 2013 rockfall at Puigcercós scarp (Catalonia,Spain)

A detailed analysis of the pre-failure behavior of the 3 December 2013 rockfall (1,012 m³) occurred on Puigcercós pilot study area (Catalonia, Spain) is presented. The exact date of failure was obtained based on a photographic monitoring performed every 4 h. The long-term monitoring (2,217 days) of the rock slope carried out by a Terrestrial LiDAR allowed the early detection of both pre-failure deformation and precursory rockfalls preceding the final failure. By means of the analysis of the pre-failure deformation, four different deformed areas were detected and the tertiary creep phase was observed in three of them. An attempt to predict the time to failure was performed using the Fukuzono’s (1985) method. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of the precursory rockfalls occurred in those four areas during the progressive failure showed a close resemblance with the exponential pattern of the cumulated displacements at tertiary creep stage. Finally, the study of the meteorological conditions did not show any single triggering factor associated with the final failure. Reversely, the increase in the occurrence of precursory rockfalls on several areas of the slope together with the observed acceleration on the deformation pattern reinforce the role of a progressive degradation of the stability conditions, which ultimately leaded to the 3 December rockfall event.     

鄂尔多斯盆地志靖——安塞地区延长组首次湖侵期沉积特征及其石油地质意义

通过沉积物岩石学特征、粒度分布特征、沉积构造与生物化石特征、单井分析等综合方法,对志靖—安塞地区长9油层组沉积相发育及分布特征进行了研究。结果表明,鄂尔多斯盆地志靖—安塞地区在首次湖侵期长9期发育三角洲-湖泊沉积体系,主要发育三角洲前缘亚相和浅湖亚相。长92期研究区北部大面积发育三角洲前缘沉积,西南部发育小面积三角洲前缘沉积,浅湖面积较小,呈喇叭状向东南方向开口。长91期沉积格局基本上继承了长92期的特点,但浅湖的范围有所加大。三角洲前缘水下分流河道砂体整体上呈北东—南西向条带状展布。长9期湖侵过程形成了具生烃潜力的泥岩,主要分布在吴起—志丹—安塞一带,在志丹东南部区域最厚,可达20m,并呈现向东南方向继续变厚延伸的趋势。储集空间的存在和烃源岩的发育使得研究区长9储层具有较好的勘探前景。     

Refractory Black Carbon Results and a Method Comparison between Solid-state Cutting and Continuous Melting Sampling of a West Antarctic Snow and Firn Core

This work presents the refractory black carbon(rBC)results of a snow and firn core drilled in West Antarctica(79°55'34.6"S,94°21'13.3"W)during the 2014?15 austral summer,collected by Brazilian researchers as part of the First Brazilian West Antarctic Ice Sheet Traverse.The core was drilled to a depth of 20 m,and we present the results of the first 8 m by comparing two subsampling methods—solid-state cutting and continuous melting—both with discrete sampling.The core was analyzed at the Department of Geological Sciences,Central Washington University(CWU),WA,USA,using a single particle soot photometer(SP2)coupled to a CETAC Marin-5 nebulizer.The continuous melting system was recently assembled at CWU and these are its first results.We also present experimental results regarding SP2 reproducibility,indicating that sample concentration has a greater influence than the analysis time on the reproducibility for low rBC concentrations,like those found in the Antarctic core.Dating was carried out using mainly the rBC variation and sulfur,sodium and strontium as secondary parameters,giving the core 17 years(1998?2014).The data show a well-defined seasonality of rBC concentrations for these first meters,with geometric mean summer/fall concentrations of 0.016μg L^?1 and geometric mean winter/spring concentrations of 0.063μg L^?1.The annual rBC concentration geometric mean was 0.029μg L^?1(the lowest of all rBC cores in Antarctica referenced in this work),while the annual rBC flux was 6.1μg m^?2 yr^?1(the lowest flux in West Antarctica records so far).     

基于COM组件的单站数值预报结果提取与网络动态发布方法

为实现对海量数值预报产品的高效应用和对单站数值预报结果的网络共享,针对ECMWF、T639等数值预报产品特点,创建了一种单站数值预报结果的提取方法,并基于COM组件实现其结果的网络动态发布.本文给出了网络服务器端单站数值预报结果提取COM组件设计的一般思路和关键程序代码,解决了单站数值预报结果的快速提取、直观显示和网络动态实时发布问题.     

2017年3月江苏北部一次雷雨大风天气过程分析

利用多种常规观测资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,分析了2017年3月1日江苏北部出现的一次罕见冷空气雷雨大风天气过程的发生背景、地面要素和云团演变特征,同时从大气动力、热力和水汽条件出发分析了午后对流的成因。结果表明：此次过程发生前,江苏地区位于高空槽前,对流层中低层有冷式切变线伴随两股冷空气南下,受江苏省北部地面气旋阻挡,冷空气在上游堆积,当气旋东移入海冷空气爆发式南下时,造成严重的大风灾害。此次过程中,对流层中高层大气降温而低层回温使大气温度直减率增大,为对流发生提供不稳定条件,但水汽输送主要集中在低层,且高层大气无明显抽吸作用,导致此次过程未发生强对流性降水,主要以大风灾害性天气为主。     

A Comment on “How Well Can We Measure the Vertical Wind Speed? Implications for Fluxes of Energy and Mass” by Kochendorfer et al.

Kochendorfer et al. (Boundary-Layer Meterol, 145:383–398, 2012) conducted an experiment to evaluate azimuth and angle-of-attack dependent errors of sonic anemometer measurements. Several questions are raised regarding the experimental design and the presented results. The finding that instruments with non-orthogonal sonic paths underestimate fluctuations of vertical wind speed and consequently also scalar fluxes by about 10 % is compared with the results of a hitherto unpublished side-by-side field comparison and other past intercomparison experiments. Scale considerations are presented that raise considerable doubts on the validity of the implicit assumption of Kochendorfer et al. (2012) that the turbulent wind vector is highly correlated across a distance of 1.2 m at a height of 2.5 m over flat grassland, which corresponds to the separation between the sonic anemometers tested in their experiment. Nevertheless, new developments in sonic anemometer design to minimize transducer-shadow effects are desirable.     

江西省“三农”服务专项建设现状与思考

通过对江西省24个"三农"服务专项建设实施地的"两个体系"建设情况开展实地调查,分析了江西省"三农"服务专项建设在提高气象为农服务现代化、促进气象工作政府化、惠民利民等三方面取得的成效,总结了各地的建设内容、成功经验、工作亮点和特色,梳理了存在的问题,并结合建设现状和有关要求,对今后江西省"三农"服务专项建设提出了六个方面的具体建议。     

2018年湖南省农村自然灾害社会脆弱性测度

农村社会发展状况与自然灾害发生频率和强度息息相关,提高农村自然灾害社会脆弱性对农村社会发展及实现乡村振兴战略具有重要作用。以湖南省各地级市州农村为研究对象,从敏感性和恢复力两个维度建立社会脆弱性指标评价体系,采用熵值法、模糊综合评价法和函数法测算敏感性、恢复力和脆弱性指数,分析2018年湖南省农村自然灾害社会脆弱性。结果表明,湖南省农村社会脆弱性空间分异特征明显,呈现“东低西高”的分布格局;多数地区的农村社会脆弱性处于低位水平,地区分异显著,具有两极分化分布特点,张家界地区最高,长沙和衡阳地区最低。在中低社会脆弱性的农村,恢复力指数对社会脆弱性贡献最大,其中最为显著的便是社会公共事业的建设水平和基础设施的完善水平。在高社会脆弱性的农村,敏感性指数对社会脆弱性贡献度最大。     

Tidal Evolution of the Kepler Candidate Two-planet Systems

The tidal evolution of ten Kepler candidate two-planet systems is investigated by using the general secular perturbation theory, and then a general picture of tidal evolution for these systems is described. Taking the KOI 1239 system as an example, the tidal effect of the system is studied in detail, the results indicate that the dissipative term of the tidal effect causes the attenuation of planets’ orbital eccentricities, and it plays a dominant role in the process of orbital evolution, however, the conservative term of the tidal effect and the relativistic effect may damp the excitation of the eccentricity of the inner planet under the secular perturbation of the outer planet. In addition, the process of tidal evolution is also affected by both the initial eccentricity of the outer planet and the planet's tidal dissipation coeffcient. At the same time, the numerical simulation on the tidal evolution of the KOI 1239 system is also made, and the numerical results are consistent with those of general secular perturbation theory.