城市雨水地下回灌过程中悬浮物表面堵塞规律

雨洪资源地下回灌是缓解城市供水压力、解决地下水过量开采引起环境负效应的有效途径之一,但堵塞问题却是制约回灌技术推广的关键问题。基于前人理论,研究了入渗介质与悬浮物粒径中值之比(D₅₀/d₅₀)对堵塞层空间分布的影响。以建立表面堵塞预测模型为目的,利用城市雨水回灌细粒石英砂介质开展室内实验,观测雨水回灌的表面堵塞过程并获取渗透性变化的观测数据。根据物理、化学与生物堵塞的产生条件及堵塞特点,判断雨水回灌产生的堵塞性质为物理堵塞。引入过滤模型描述堵塞的发展过程,确定了模型用于模拟细砂表面堵塞的参数值：孔隙堵塞系数（α）为0.15 m²/kg,阻力增长系数（f′R′）为20 000 m/kg。在不改变以上2个参数值的条件下,用该模型模拟不同悬浮物粒径悬浊水回灌细粒石英砂的堵塞过程,取得了较好的拟合效果。此过滤模型可以用于模拟入渗介质与悬浮物粒径D₅₀/d₅₀值小于5的表面堵塞的发展过程,可定量预测堵塞对回灌速率的影响。     

多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型

在复杂的灾害风险系统中,风险并非简单相加,但目前的研究成果基本是单一灾种简单相加得到的综合风险,缺乏可靠性。因此,此研究基于灾害风险系统理论,引入模糊信息粒化方法和模糊转化函数,利用模糊近似推理理论和方法,建立一个多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型。研究表明该模型的优势：1）不仅考虑了灾害风险系统中的确定性,而且还包括了随机不确定性和模糊不确定性;2）利用模糊信息粒化方法不仅减少了数据的不确定性,而且还包括了一些主观信息,使得评估结果更加接近实际,理论与实际紧密结合,更有利于风险管理者和决策者为减少损失规避风险提供依据;3）通过模糊转化函数将不同灾种得到的不同量纲的量转化同一量纲的量,以便于综合分析和模糊近似推理,获得多灾种综合风险。以云南省丽江地区（市）的地震－洪水灾害为例,验证多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型的实用性,并将其结果与世界银行灾害管理中心和哥伦比亚大学灾害和风险研究中心所建议的风险评估模型（HMU－CHRR模型）的结果进行比较分析,讨论了本研究所建模型在多灾种综合风险评估中的特点。     

安徽及近邻区地震烈度衰减特征研究

利用安徽及近邻区地震烈度资料,采用椭圆衰减模型和长轴可转向与近、远场补点方法,通过多元回归方法进行拟合,建立该地区地震烈度衰减关系。该衰减关系用于安徽地震应急指挥技术系统震害快速评估模块,为地震灾害损失快速评估提供基础资料;也可用于安徽地区地震安全性评价、震害预测等防震减灾领域。     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

Effects of seismic devices on transverse responses of piers in the Sutong Bridge

The Sutong Bridge in China opened to traffic in 2008, and is an arterial connection between the cities of Nantong and Suzhou. It is a cable-stayed bridge with a main span of 1,088 m. Due to a tight construction schedule and lack of suitable seismic devices at the time, fixed supports were installed between the piers and the girder in the transverse direction. As a result, significant transverse seismic forces could occur in the piers and foundations, especially during a return period of a 2500-year earthquake. Therefore, the piers, foundations and fixed bearings had to be designed extraordinarily strong. However, when larger earthquakes occur, the bearings, piers and foundations are still vulnerable. The recent rapid developments in seismic technology and the performance-based design approach offer a better opportunity to optimize the transverse seismic design for the Sutong Bridge piers. The optimized design can be applied to the Sutong Bridge(as a retrofit), as well as other bridges. Seismic design alternatives utilizing viscous fluid dampers(VFD), or friction pendulum sliding bearings(FPSB), or transverse yielding metallic dampers(TYMD) are thoroughly studied in this work, and the results are compared with those from the current condition with fixed transverse supports and a hypothetical condition in which only sliding bearings are provided on top of the piers(the girder can move "freely" in the transverse direction during the earthquake, except for frictional forces of the sliding bearings). Parametric analyses were performed to optimize the design of these proposed seismic devices. From the comparison of the peak bridge responses in these configurations, it was found that both VFD and TYMD are very effective in the reduction of transverse seismic forces in piers, while at the same time keeping the relative transverse displacements between piers and the box girder within acceptable limits. However, compared to VFD, TYMD do not interact with the longitudinal displacements of the girder, and have simpler details and lower initial and maintenance costs. Although the use of FPSB can also reduce seismic forces, it generally causes the transverse relative displacements to be higher than acceptable limits.     

天水井下地电阻率资料应用研究

本文简要介绍了天水井下地电阻率观测系统场地布设及观测方式,对井下多种方式观测资料进行了对比研究,并结合芦山MS7.0、岷县MS6.6级地震进行了分析。结果表明:深层水平地电阻率在2次地震发生前,均出现了明显的短临异常,其他观测方式短临异常不是特别显著;同时对降水、雷电以及观测系统故障干扰影响深层地电阻率观测做了分析与讨论。与传统地电阻率观测相比,采用井下观测系统能减少干扰、提高信噪比,能缓解地电观测与经济建设的矛盾,是地电观测方式的新探索。     

Experimental Study on Velocity Profiles with Different Roughness Elements in a Flume

The classical log law for velocity profile is applied to engineering practice. Field observations indicate that the composition of the bed materials obviously influences the shape of vertical velocity distribution. To clearly understand the roughness effect, six types of materials were laid separately at various depths for the investigation of the effects of roughness elements on the vertical velocity distribution. A down-looking 3D acoustic Doppler velocimeter was used to measure the velocity profiles. The experimental results showed that the curve characteristics of velocity profiles are strongly dependent on the roughness scale and related flow parameters. If d/R, Fr, and Re are larger than 0.15, 0.47, and 60 000, respectively, the velocity distribution may resemble an S-shape profile. The inflexion position Z*/H for a given S-shape profile was empirically deduced as Z*/H = ?0.4481d/R + 0.3225. Otherwise, the velocity profile agrees well with the logarithmic law. The findings of this study are useful in engineering practice (i.e., depth-averaged velocity and flow rate estimate). Key words: velocity profiles, acoustic Doppler velocimeter, roughness elements, logarithmic law, S-shape curve.     

库水位波动条件下万州瓦窑坪滑坡稳定性分析

库水位波动对滑坡的稳定性变化有重要影响,传统的定值分析方法未能考虑土体强度参数取值的不定性,而概率分析法能考虑土体强度参数分布的随机性,对库区滑坡的稳定性分析提供了更有力的依据。文章以万州瓦窑坪滑坡为例,在基于库水位实际波动进行拟合的条件下对滑坡的渗流场进行了模拟,同时对不同水位下滑坡的稳定性和破坏概率进行了分析。结果表明,滑坡在库水位波动条件下整体稳定性系数均大于1,处于基本稳定状态,滑坡具有低危险性。库水位下降到160.47 m水位时,边坡破坏概率超过30%,具有中等危险性。采用R/S分析法对监测数据进行分析,结果表明滑坡具有持续性的小变形,滑坡处于基本稳定状态,与稳定性分析结果一致。     

Geochemical characteristics of mud volcano fluids in the southern margin of the Junggar basin,NW China: implications for fluid origin and mud volcano formation mechanisms

Mud volcanoes can provide important information about the underlying strata, hydrocarbon accumulation, and recent neotectonic movements in an area. The fluids erupting from mud volcanoes provide important information about their formation and evolution. The ion concentration and the hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of the fluids that were erupted from the three mud volcano groups, Baiyanggou, Aiqigou, and Dushanzi, and nearby rivers in the southern margin of the Junggar basin, northwestern China, are studied. The concentrations of Na and Cl in mud volcano fluids are clearly elevated, displayed as the Na-Cl type. The δD and δ18O values of the fluids are similar between the Baiyanggou and Dushanzi mud volcanoes, which are mainly from ancient sedimentary pore water. However, the Aiqigou mud volcano is depleted in dissolved Cl and shows lower δ18O values with mixed sources, including deep pore and local meteoric water. Two types of mud volcanoes are proposed in this study. One type is low-energy mud volcanoes with a low volume of fluid of deep origin on the hillcrest, which display as mud pool/pie/hole. The other type is high-energy mud volcanoes having mixed fluid origin in the valley and formed in the shape of a mud cone (dome).     

赣南茅坪钨矿床黄玉单晶流体包裹体研究

文章以赣南茅坪大型钨矿床成矿早阶段形成的黄玉单晶为研究对象,对其中的流体包裹体开展了岩相学、显微测温以及激光拉曼光谱研究。结果显示,茅坪钨矿床黄玉单晶中的流体包裹体以富液两相包裹体为主,同时发育有单相包裹体、富二氧化碳的三相包裹体以及含子矿物包裹体。其中,含子矿物包裹体发育是本矿床黄玉中包裹体的重要特征,子矿物成分有方解石、石英、石盐等;流体包裹体的均一温度介于200~509℃之间,峰值位于420~500℃之间,盐度w(NaCl_(eq))为4.32%~19.22%,峰值介于17%~19%,较前人获得的石英脉型钨矿床成矿温度和盐度均高出许多,其峰值(420~500℃)在一定程度上衔接了石英脉型黑钨矿高温阶段的演化历史;黄玉单晶中包裹体还具有富含CO_2、CH_4、N_2等挥发分的特征。综上所述,笔者认为石英脉型钨矿的成矿流体在早阶段具有高温、中高盐度、富挥发分、富含多种离子的特征。