登陆我国热带气旋活动的年代际变化分析

本文利用1950－1999年西北太平洋热带气旋资料，对50年来登陆我国热带气旋的月际、年际和年代际变化及异常情况进行了统计分析，指出了登陆我国的热带气旋频数存在明显的年代际差异，并对比分析了同期的副热带高压等海洋大气环流指数的统计特征。     

大地电场变化的频谱特征

处理了中国大陆地区嘉峪关、昌黎、崇明、蒙城、兴济、宝坻和阳原等7个台的地电场观测数据,应用最大熵谱方法研究了大地电场日变化、地电暴等谱成分的特征. 结果表明,大地电场日变化主要是12 h的半日波成分最强, 24~25 h的全日波和8 h周期成分次之; 地电暴是在大尺度空间同步发生的,其谱值高于日变化谱值约2～3个数量级,主要以较长周期成分为主. 这一结果初步解释了大地电场变化的主要谱成分的生成机制.      

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimations from the site of the Eastern Anatolia Observatory<Superscript>∗</Superscript> (DAG), a new astronomical observatory in Turkey

We present preliminary statistics on the precipitable water vapor (PWV) content over the Karakaya Hills in Erzurum city, where the largest optical and near-infrared astronomical telescope in Turkey will be operated. Since the observatory will observe in the near-infrared (NIR), it is intended to perform PWV measurements of the atmosphere above the site by using signal delays in Global Positioning System (GPS) communication. The analysis of the GPS data recorded on the summit for almost one year shows that the atmosphere over the site of the observatory, which has an altitude of 3170 m, has favorable conditions for NIR observations. From GPS measurements, we report that the site had an average PWV of 3.2 mm and a median PWV of 2.7 mm between October 6, 2016, and June 15, 2017. We also present the time dependency of the PWV content and the correlations between the amount of PWV and the other meteorological records gathered from radiosonde flights and ground-based measurements.     

微小亚历山大藻(Alexandrium minutum)的氮磷吸收、生长、产毒动态变化

采用浮游植物计数法、高效液相色谱串联质谱法、分光光度法等分析方法,探索了微小亚历山大藻(Alexandrium minutum)在批次培养过程中氮磷吸收、产毒、生物量、p H等参数的动态变化关系。结果表明,微小亚历山大藻对磷的吸收迅速,可以将磷储存于体内,待生长使用。该藻对氮的吸收相对缓慢,环境中氮缺乏时,产毒量不再增加,说明氮对产毒有着重要的调控作用。在第二对数期中出现了碳限制环境,导致叶绿素a在碳限制条件下无法表征藻的生物量,相反,叶绿素a和生物量呈负线性关系,可能是叶绿素转化成其它含碳物质,用于生长。毒素不仅存在于细胞体内,培养液中(胞外)也含有毒素,并且胞外毒素从稳定期开始逐渐升高。胞内毒素的组成中GTX1/4占据绝对优势,GTX2/3含量相对较少。生长延缓期和第一对数期,各种毒素组成比例相对稳定,而在随后的生长期内,GTX1/4在总毒素中的占比逐渐上升,GTX2/3占比逐渐下降,表明微小亚历山大藻毒素组成会随着生长周期的变化而发生变化。     

珠江口淇澳岛滨海湿地沉积环境演化及其对人类活动的响应

滨海湿地作为人类活动和全球变化反应最为敏感的区域,其沉积记录可以反映出周边地区环境变化及人类活动信息。珠江口淇澳岛滨海湿地钻孔分析结果表明,在中全新世期间淇澳岛附近海域为河口湾环境,在风化层以上开始出现淤积,但在4 200 a BP前后受极冷气候的影响,沉积物粗化;自2 500 a BP以来,沉积环境相对稳定,在小冰期期间略有变化。沉积速率计算结果显示:淇澳岛附近海域自中全新世高海面以来的平均沉积速率为0.29 cm/a,4 160~2 500 a BP、2 500 a BP-1488年、1488-1893年、1893-1986年、1990-2007年期间的平均沉积速率分别为:0.17 cm/a、0.23 cm/a、0.35 cm/a、1.37 cm/a和5.94 cm/a,沉积速率逐渐增大,反映了珠江三角洲演化过程中沉积相与沉积环境的变化;1986-1990年期间的海堤建造极大地扰动了该钻孔上部的沉积过程,在工程施工期间共沉积了厚度约112 cm的沉积层,而在海堤建成后,沉积速率也显著增大。沉积物总有机碳、总氮和C/N值的垂向分布表明,在4 160~2 500 a BP期间受海洋环境影响较大,沉积物中有机碳以海源为主,2 500 a BP以来沉积物中碳、氮含量明显增大,C/N也相应变大,有机碳主要来源于陆源输入,但在小冰期期间海源有机碳贡献略有所增大;近百年来由于受人类活动影响显著,陆源有机碳的贡献快速增加。     

基于SMAP卫星雷达资料的海冰密集度反演技术研究

SMAP是美国于2015年初发射的一颗卫星,搭载了L波段的雷达。它采用圆锥扫描方式,具有固定的入射角、较大的幅宽和千米级的分辨率,在海冰监测方面具有独特的优势。本文利用SMAP卫星雷达资料分别与德国Bremen大学海冰密集度产品和美国国家冰雪数据中心（NSIDC）海冰密集度产品建立3.125 km和25 km匹配数据集,分析了L波段雷达后向散射系数、极化比和归一化极化差与海冰密集度之间相关性,建立基于人工神经网络的海冰密集度反演算法。为了验证SMAP卫星雷达资料反演海冰密集度的精度,本文选择德国Bremen大学和美国冰雪数据中心发布的海冰密集度产品分别与SMAP海冰密集度产品进行对比分析,SMAP海冰密集度与Bremen海冰密集度的偏差为0.07、均方根误差为0.14;与NSIDC海冰密集度的偏差为0.04、均方根误差为0.18,这表明SMAP海冰密集度产品与现有业务化海冰密集度产品具有很好的一致性。     

Simulating the Propagation of Infrasonic Waves and Estimating the Energy of the Chelyabinsk Meteoroid Explosion Observed on February 15, 2013

Results obtained from simulating the propagation of infrasonic waves from the Chelyabinsk meteoroid explosion observed on February 15, 2013, are given. The pseudodifferential parabolic equation (PDPE) method has been used for calculations. Data on infrasonic waves recorded at the IS31 station (Aktyubinsk, Kazakhstan), located 542.7 km from the likely location of the explosion, have been analyzed. Six infrasonic arrivals (isolated clearly defined pulse signals) were recorded. It is shown that the first “fast” arrival (F) corresponds to the propagation of infrasound in a surface acoustic waveguide. The rest of the arrivals (T1–T5) are thermospheric. The agreement between the results of calculations based on the PDPE method and experimental data is satisfactory. The energy E of the explosion has been estimated using two methods. One of these methods is based on the law of conservation of the acoustic pulse I, which is a product of the wave profile area S/2 of the signal under analysis and the distance to its source E _I [kt] = 1.38 × 10^–10 (I [kg/s])^1.482. The other method is based on the relation between the energy of explosion and the dominant period T of recorded signal E _T [kt] = 1.02 × (T [s]²/σ)^3/2, where σ is the dimensionless distance determining the degree of nonlinear effects during the propagation of sound along ray trajectories. According to the data, the explosion energy E _I,T ranges from 1.87 to 32 kt TNT.     

Generation of the Stressed State of the Lithosphere of the Earth and Mars Caused by the Reorientation of Their Figures

The computer simulation of the reorientation of the Earth and Mars lithosphere figure has been performed, which due to the dynamic redistribution of masses, allowed to reveal certain regularities of the structure-forming processes. It has been shown that the shape of the lithosphere surface has a different orientation relatively to the geoids’ (aroids) figure. This causes redistribution of masses leading to a strained state of the lithosphere as a result of endogenous and gravitational-rotational forces action in the evolutionary processes of planet’s self-development. The solution of this problem is considered on the example of lithosphere surface heights approximation by a biaxial ellipsoid with seven parameters. The acting horizontal forces in the upper shell of the planet has been calculated, introducing the concept of “evolutionary deviation of the plumb” and assuming that the tangential forces are proportional to the angle, which is defined as the angle between the direction of the plumb line in the past geological epoch and the plumb line direction at a given point. The calculated fields of tangential force vectors show good consistency with the direction of space-time displacement of Earth’s continents and tectonic plates and consistent with the results of the horizontal movements of GNSS stations. This is quite convincing evidence that under the long-term action of vortex rotationalgravitational forces, the lithospheres masses acquire the properties of creep. All this leads to the fact that interacting blocks and plates within the vortex rotational-gravitational model can be interconnected to elastic fields that creates a single planetary geodynamic field that forms the evolutionary state of the geo-environment.     

Hydroacoustic estimates of fish biomass and spatial distributions in shallow lakes

We conducted acoustical surveys with a horizontal beam transducer to detect fish and with a vertical beam transducer to detect depth and macrophytes in two typical shallow lakes along the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River in November 2013. Both lakes are subject to active fish management with annual stocking and removal of large fish. The purpose of the study was to compare hydroacoustic horizontal beam estimates with fish landings. The preliminary results show that the fish distribution patterns dif fered in the two lakes and were af fected by water depth and macrophyte coverage. The hydroacoustically estimated fish biomass matched the commercial catch very well in Niushan Lake, but it was two times higher in Kuilei Lake. However, acoustic estimates included all fish, whereas the catch included only fish 45 cm(smaller ones were released). We were unable to determine the proper regression between acoustic target strength and fish length for the dominant fish species in the two lakes.     

Construction of confidence regions in the problem of asteroid orbit determination

The factors required for estimation of the accuracy of the confidence region construction in the problem of asteroid orbit determination are considered. Blunders and large systematic errors occurring in asteroid observations increase the sizes of confidence regions and cause their noticeable shift in the space of determined parameters. We present the factors that, in addition to analysis of discrepancies (O–C), provide an opportunity to estimate the efficiency of screening observations containing gross systematic errors. The developed factors have been tested for efficiency using simulated observations. The observations have been simulated by parameters set by us and assumed true. It is shown how the sizes of systematic errors and the number of observations with these errors influence the results of screening. All calculations have been performed within the Keplerian model of asteroid motion.