Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Evaluation of gravitational curvatures of a tesseroid in spherical integral kernels

Proper understanding of how the Earth’s mass distributions and redistributions influence the Earth’s gravity field-related functionals is crucial for numerous applications in geodesy, geophysics and related geosciences. Calculations of the gravitational curvatures (GC) have been proposed in geodesy in recent years. In view of future satellite missions, the sixth-order developments of the gradients are becoming requisite. In this paper, a set of 3D integral GC formulas of a tesseroid mass body have been provided by spherical integral kernels in the spatial domain. Based on the Taylor series expansion approach, the numerical expressions of the 3D GC formulas are provided up to sixth order. Moreover, numerical experiments demonstrate the correctness of the 3D Taylor series approach for the GC formulas with order as high as sixth order. Analogous to other gravitational effects (e.g., gravitational potential, gravity vector, gravity gradient tensor), numerically it is found that there exist the very-near-area problem and polar singularity problem in the GC east–east–radial, north–north–radial and radial–radial–radial components in spatial domain, and compared to the other gravitational effects, the relative approximation errors of the GC components are larger due to not only the influence of the geocentric distance but also the influence of the latitude. This study shows that the magnitude of each term for the nonzero GC functionals by a grid resolution 15\(^{{\prime } }\,\times \) 15\(^{{\prime }}\) at GOCE satellite height can reach of about 10\(^{-16}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for zero order, 10\(^{-24 }\) or 10\(^{-23}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for second order, 10\(^{-29}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for fourth order and 10\(^{-35}\) or 10\(^{-34}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for sixth order, respectively.     

Determination of Phobos’ rotational parameters by an inertial frame bundle block adjustment

A functional model for a bundle block adjustment in the inertial reference frame was developed, implemented and tested. This approach enables the determination of rotation parameters of planetary bodies on the basis of photogrammetric observations. Tests with a self-consistent synthetic data set showed that the implementation converges reliably toward the expected values of the introduced unknown parameters of the adjustment, e.g., spin pole orientation, and that it can cope with typical observational errors in the data. We applied the model to a data set of Phobos using images from the Mars Express and the Viking mission. With Phobos being in a locked rotation, we computed a forced libration amplitude of \(1.14^\circ \pm 0.03^\circ \) together with a control point network of 685 points.     

Generating GPS satellite fractional cycle bias for ambiguity-fixed precise point positioning

With the development of precise point positioning (PPP), the School of Geodesy and Geomatics (SGG) at Wuhan University is now routinely producing GPS satellite fractional cycle bias (FCB) products with open access for worldwide PPP users to conduct ambiguity-fixed PPP solution. We provide a brief theoretical background of PPP and present the strategies and models to compute the FCB products. The practical realization of the two-step (wide-lane and narrow-lane) FCB estimation scheme is described in detail. With GPS measurements taken in various situations, i.e., static, dynamic, and on low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, the quality of FCB estimation and the effectiveness of PPP ambiguity resolution (AR) are evaluated. The comparison with CNES FCBs indicated that our FCBs had a good consistency with the CNES ones. For wide-lane FCB, almost all the differences of the two products were within ±0.05 cycles. For narrow-lane FCB, 87.8 % of the differences were located between ±0.05 cycles, and 97.4 % of them were located between ±0.075 cycles. The experimental results showed that, compared with conventional ambiguity-float PPP, the averaged position RMS of static PPP can be improved from (3.6, 1.4, 3.6) to (2.0, 1.0, 2.7) centimeters for ambiguity-fixed PPP. The average accuracy improvement in the east, north, and up components reached 44.4, 28.6, and 25.0 %, respectively. A kinematic, ambiguity-fixed PPP test with observation of 80 min achieved a position accuracy of better than 5 cm at the one-sigma level in all three coordinate components. Compared with the results of ambiguity-float, kinematic PPP, the positioning biases of ambiguity-fixed PPP were improved by about 78.2, 20.8, and 65.1 % in east, north, and up. The RMS of LEO PPP test was improved by about 23.0, 37.0, and 43.0 % for GRACE-A and GRACE-B in radial, tangential, and normal directions when AR was applied to the same data set. These results demonstrated that the SGG FCB products can be produced with high quality for users anywhere around the world to carry out ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions.     

顾及钟差随机项的GPS卫星钟差预报

针对卫星钟差呈趋势项和随机项变化的特点,提出了基于GM(1,1)与自回归求和移动平均的组合预报模型。该模型首先采用GM(1,1)模型预报钟差的趋势项部分,然后利用ARIMA模型对GM(1,1)的模型残差序列进行建模和预报,最后将GM(1,1)和ARIMA模型的预报结果对应相加即得到钟差的最终预报值。此外,采用IGS公布的精密卫星钟差进行预报试验,通过与卫星钟差预报中常用的二次多项式模型和修正指数曲线法模型预报结果的对比分析,结果表明:该方法可以对GPS卫星钟差进行高精度的中短期预报。用12 h钟差建模时,预报未来6、12、24和48 h的平均预报精度分别为0.71、1.17、1.93和4.38 ns,相比于二次多项式模型的平均预报精度分别提高了29.70%、43.75%、67.62%和76.21%;相比于修正指数曲线法模型的平均预报精度分别提高了18.39%、33.90%、61.40%和70.49%。     

无人机多光谱遥感结合DEM在估测植被面积中的研究

准确地估测植被覆盖度对于生态环境、自然资源评估有着重要的意义.本文通过无人机获取多光谱影像结合DEM,对拍摄区域植被面积进行估测;利用无人机遥感平台搭载的Sequoia多光谱相机获取影像数据,研究了常见的4种植被指数(归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)、比值植被指数(RVI)、土壤调节植被指数(SAVI)、绿度归一化植被指...     

Automatic Road Change Detection and GIS Updating from High Spatial Remotely-Sensed Imagery

This paper presents a tramework for road network change detectlon In order to upctate the Canadian National Topographic DataBase (NTDB). The methodology has been developed on the basis of road extraction from IRS-pan images (with a 5.8 m spatial resolution) by using a wavelet approach. The feature matching and conflation techniques are used to road change detection and updating. Elementary experiments have showed that the proposed framework could be used for developing an operational road database updating system.     

An intelligent agent based on virtual geographic environment system

On the basis of previous work, this paper designs an intelligent agent based on virtual geographic environment (VGE) system that is characterized by huge data, rapid computation, multi-user, multi-thread and intelligence and issues challenges to traditional GIS models and algorithms. The new advances in software and hardware technology lay a reliable basis for system design, development and application.     

Implementation of OGC web map service based on web service

OGC Web Map Service is one kind of OGC Portrayal Services belongs to OGC Web Service model and it provides multi-platform interoperability of spatial data set. This paper presents a method for implementing OGC Web Map Service based on Web Service technique and introduces the detailed process.