A new way to predict forecast skill

Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.     

Salinity variation of formation water and diagenesis reaction in abnormal pressure environments

~~Salinity variation of formation water and diagenesis reaction in abnormal pressure environments@解习农 @焦赳赳 @李思田 @成建梅~~~~     

异常气候对高寒区杏树生产的影响及对策

杏树是雁北高寒区主栽果树品种之一，也是当地农民脱贫致富的重要收入来源。异常气候是影响当地杏树栽培优质丰产的主要障碍因素。通过近年来山西省阳高县异常天气对杏树生产的影响的分析调查，提出了相应的生产管理措施，对高寒区杏树优质丰产具有一定的指导意义。     

北京市大气细粒子的质量浓度特征研究

大气能见度的降低是当今国际上比较突出的城市环境问题。北京近年的监测结果表明 ,大气中通过消光作用使大气能见度下降的气溶胶细粒子的污染程度呈现上升趋势。从 2 0 0 1年对北京市气溶胶细粒子 (空气动力学直径小于 2 .5μm的粒子 ) 4个季节的采样监测结果分析 (有效采样天数为 50d)得出 ,北京市细粒子质量浓度年平均值已超过美国国家标准的 7倍以上。研究发现细粒子的质量浓度不仅与环境条件有关 ,而且与气象条件也有着密切的关系。文中以细粒子的观测数据为基础 ,结合当时的气象条件进行细粒子浓度与气象条件定量关系的研究     

回归诊断在梅雨期大到暴雨预报中的应用

应用回归诊断方法分析发现，梅汛期大到暴雨回归预报模型的残差分布存在着不对称现象，这种不对称现象是由高杠杆点所引起。这些高杠杆试验点的残差存在着统计天气预报意义上的不合理性，导致了回归系数LS估计的误差，从而又引起暴雨预报的误差。针对这些问题提出了大到暴雨的回归诊断预报模型。实例计算说明，回归诊断预报模型要优于常规回归预报模型。进一步分析指出，梅汛期大到暴雨回归预报模型的不合理性并非个别例子的特殊性所造成，而是由模型的数学特点所决定，因此大到暴雨的回归诊断预报模型具有普遍意义。大量的试验和多年的业务应用表明，回归诊断对提高大到暴雨预报准确率具有明显的效果。     

地震信息反馈系统的研制和应用

介绍了地震信息反馈系统的原理和功能,给出了系统的结构框图,对发送终端和接收终端的功能做了具体描述。在应用上也做了具体阐述,该系统能有效、快速地传送地震三要素信息。     

三维AVO解释技术在洪泽地区岩性油藏勘探中的应用

洪泽地区由于沉积的特点，储层横向变化快，油藏受构造、岩性、油源多因素控制。在对该区三维AVO属性体解释中，利用多元回归方法求取了横波曲线，分岩性和含油气性统计了纵、横波、泊松比参数分布规律，建立了本区的含油砂岩的正演模型，从而降低了AVO解释的多解性。通过井-震结合对四种AVO属性数据体进行了标定，并确定了各属性体应用范围，进而进行了储层和含油气检测。实践表明，该方法能有效地利用AVO属性数据体进行储层预测及油气检测，具有一定的推广价值。     

溃变原理在雷暴天气预报中的应用

本文以欧阳首承教授“不损伤信息”的落区和落点结构分析方法，对四川省广汉地区的间断、持续性雷暴天气进行了具体地分析和预测。结果表明，该方法不仅可揭示天气的转折性变化，并使用10分钟一次数据的自记非规则信息，也已经能预测仅有半小时的局地雷暴天气。这不仅对民用、军用飞行有实际意义，也显示了充分利用自动气象站信息资源的必要性，并应改进目前自动气象站的记录读取方式。     

Reinforcing a Dangerous Rock Mass Using the Flexible Network Method

Because the main failure type of a dangerous rock mass is collapse, the treatment of such a mass should focus on controlling collapse failure. When treating dangerous rock masses, disturbing the mass （e. g. by blasting） needs to be avoided, as this new damage could cause collapse. So the self-bearing capacity of the mountain mass must be used to treat the dangerous rock mass. This article is based on a practical example of the control of a dangerous rock mass at Banyan Mountain, Huangshi, Hubei Province. On the basis of an analysis of damage mechanism and the stability of the dangerous rock mass, a flexible network reinforcement method was designed to prevent the collapse of the rock mass. The deformations of section Ⅱ w of the dangerous rock mass before and after the flexible network reinforcement were calculated using the two-dimensional finite element method. The results show that the maximum deformation reduced by 55 % after the application of the flexible network reinforcement, from 45.99 to 20.75 ram, which demonstrates that the flexible network method is effective, and can provide some scientific basis for the treatment of dangerous rock masses.     

重庆地区江北砾岩地球化学分析

通过选取砾岩填隙物、砾石局部胶结填隙物、砂岩层的鲜岩石作为分析样品,结合江北砂、砾岩碳氧同位素、化学成分和磁化率的特征,对重庆地区江北砾岩进行了地球化学分析.研究结果表明,重庆地区江北砾岩胶结时期为冷干气候占据优势,但也经历了较短的暖湿时期.砾岩的主要成分是硅质,胶结物主要为钙质.