海河流域降水空间插值方法的选取

在水资源承载力模型的研究中,空间插值可以提供每个计算栅格的气象要素资料。在众多的气象要素空间插值方法中,并没有一种适合每一个气象要素的最佳插值方法,因此在不同的区域进行气象插值时,宜采用不同的方法进行比较,从而得到最佳的插值方法。本文以京津冀地区43个站1961-2000年降水资料为数据源,选用了距离平方反比法(IDS)、梯度距离平方比和普通克里格法。交叉验证结果表明:在海河流域进行降水插值分析时由于各月份降水与高程之间的相关系数较弱,不宜采用GIDS方法;在本研究区内大部分月份降水数据进行对数变换后进行插值,插值精度得到了提升;对于月降水的插值Kriging方法比IDW方法更加优越。     

西北太平洋不同寿命中尺度涡统计特征

本研究通过OW(Okubo-Weiss)参数和闭合等值线相结合的方法自动识别西北太平洋(0°—45°N,120°—180°E)中尺度涡并跟踪后续中尺度涡,分析了不同寿命中尺度涡的季节变化、年际变化、数量特征以及动力学参数等。研究发现,不同寿命中尺度涡的数量高峰时间在不同程度上晚于气象上最冷月份约1～3个月。与其他寿命中尺度涡不同,中等寿命中尺度涡的气旋涡(33.9 cm/s)比中等寿命中尺度涡的反气旋涡(16.9 cm/s)旋转得更快,季节变化最为显著。冬季更适于西北太平洋中尺度涡的发生与发展,并且在寿命上,更易发展为中等寿命涡旋。不同寿命中尺度涡的月数量变化都存在3个明显的周期性变化(第一主周期、第二主周期、第三主周期),根据不同主周期的时间尺度长短,它们的影响因子分别可能是太阳辐射、ENSO现象、季节变化。从地理分布看,不同寿命中尺度涡高频区分布并不完全一致。从涡旋平均振幅地理分布看,中等寿命中尺度涡在高频区拥有最大的涡旋平均振幅(15～25 cm),短寿命中尺度涡次之(15～20 cm),长寿命中尺度涡的平均振幅最小(10～16 cm)。从涡旋半径地理分布看,长寿命中尺度涡仅在副...     

基于震源机制解的断层三维动画自动生成——以九寨沟7.0级、精河6.6级地震为例

基于震源机制解的断层三维动画自动生成系统以地震应急实际需求为导向,根据震源机制解提供的断层走向、倾角和滑动角,通过对断层模型进行三维建模,建立断层控制点的运动方程,利用动画自动生成技术,生成发震断层的三维演示动画。利用该系统制作了九寨沟7.0级、精河6.6级地震的三维运动动画。该系统自动产出的断层三维动画,可在地震应急期间为抗震救灾指挥部展示直观的断层运动过程,并且结合余震分布等信息可为震后趋势的判定提供科学依据,同时,可借助微博、微信等新媒体为社会公众提供更好的服务。     

Study of the Population Carrying Capacity of Water and Land in Hainan Province

In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province.     

2000–2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素分析(英文)

Studying the change in population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. The spatial patterns and driving factors of the change in population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study firstly analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the change in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square(PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant factors(among 11 natural and social-economic factors) impacting population density change for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that:(1) compared to the population density in 2000, in 2010, the population density in most of the counties(over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km2 on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km2. Of all the 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively showed rapid and slow increase in population density, while 458 and 446 counties showed slow and rapid decrease in population density, respectively.(2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors impacted population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were the main pull factors of population increase. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decrease. These conclusions clarified the spatial pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide helpful reference for the future population planning.     

福建历史地震与地震灾害特征史料分析

以中国地震学会历史地震专业委员会2005年复核审定的“福建省历史强震简目”为基础,将收集到的强震参数与“福建省志·地震志”的记载进行比较分析,找出差异,建立统计对比表,突出历史大地震的参数、地震影响和地震灾害特征,并就历史地震资料的修订和使用提出看法,充分认识和反映该地理区域真实的历史地震活动和震害影响,为福建地区历史...     

福建地震现场应急通信系统的运行维护管理

探讨了福建省地震局所配备的现场应急通信系统运行维护(简称运维)的管理.将现场通信系统细分为现场局域网系统、卫星通信系统、现场后勤保障系统和现场单兵通信系统进行维护.从运维管理组织、运维管理制度、运维管理场所、存在的问题及对策等方面论述了如何加强系统维护保养,提高应急装备运用和管理能力.     

中国陆域地震灾害的时空分布格局

通过对近60年来中国陆域地震灾害信息的搜集与整理,建立了1949-2009年中国陆域地震灾害信息数据库,编制了中国5.0级以上地震灾害图谱库.在此基础上,从不同时空尺度定量分析了近60年来中国地震灾害的时空分布格局.研究表明:①近60年来中国累计发生5.0级以上地震灾害1 679次,年代际变化显著,70年代是中国地震灾...     

地震救援现场灾情信息汇集和共享系统

通过介绍地震救援现场灾情信息汇集和共享系统的工作原理、功能模块的设计过程、开发环境、系统的部署及实例,以及系统应用前景等,指出该系统能较好地实现地震现场灾情信息的快速收集、上报、关键信息特征的识别等功能,并能共享和充分利用现场信息.     

Progress in the Energy Closure of Eddy Covariance Systems

The sum of turbulent fluxes measured by the eddy-covariance method is often 10%~30% lower than available energy (i.e., the net radiation minus the ground heat flux). This systematic bias in the EC method is called the "EC energy closure problem" and has been one of the biggest challenges in micrometeorology. In the past decades, lots of studies have focused on this problem and have found extensive knowledge about it. In this paper, we introduced the reasons to the EC energy closure problem and systematically summarized the understandings on this problem with a discussion regarding the merits and limitations of possible correction methods. Compared with previous overview studies, our study focused on the methods and progresses on the EC energy closure problem using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The existing problem, e.g., the lack of high quality and high spatial density of "surface true fluxes" observations (e.g., matric observations), the failure of fully emulating the EC using the LES and how to mechanistically understand that large eddies affect turbulence structures and lead to non-closure problem, hinder the further understanding of the EC energy closure problem. Thus, in the future, focus should be put on the mechanistic understanding of how large eddies affect the non-closure problem and some dense field observations to obtain the high quality "surface true fluxes".